Originally Posted by Menschlich
No Limit, 0.06 BB (5 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com
Seat: 1 Player 1 ($6.65)
Seat: 2 Player 2 ($6.77)
Seat: 4 Hero
Seat: 6 Player 6 ($6.39) Small Blind
Seat: 7 Player 7 ($7.81) Big Blind
Dealt to Hero
Player 1 MUCKS
Player 1**wins the pot: $6.22
Is this just a ridiculously nitty fold or is this the right move against most opponents at 6nl? Usually when an opponent leads the river like this it means he has a very strong hand and the only realistic range of hands that are beat are AK, AT, maybe worse Aces and missed flush draws. He could maybe have A6 or A7 but I think they would generally raise or re-raise in the hand and probably wouldn't play the river like this. I think the most likely hands that he had were AQ or Ax of spades. I don't think that most players would bluff in this spot but I could be wrong.
What does everyone think of my play throughout the hand? I definitely had the option of 3-betting pre but I decided against it because I had been quite actively 3-betting during this session already and also because he raised UTG (although we are only 5 handed).
I think my major mistake in the hand was that my raise on the flop was about 20c or so too small and I also think that I should have bet turn a bit bigger although 3/4s is not small. Now I'm just 2nd guessing myself about the river fold as I have made some bad folds in the past.
first i think you should 4bet to get more info
second, the hand was played good and the decision at the end looks good too
what hands could he open like that?
AA (1 option) winning
QQ (3 options) winning
JJ (1 option) winning
77 (3 options) winning
66 (3 options) winning, and this is unlikely since he paid after the flop, and the flop brings and ace
11 winning chances
KK (6 options) losing, very unlikely after the board shows and A and the way he bets
AK (8 options) losing
A-T (8 options) but very unlikely so just count these 8 options for all Ax, being x T or less, losing
TT (6 options) losing,
99 (6 options) losing
88 (6 options) losing
for me last three are very unlikely because the board donīt help him to bet the way he did
for unlekile options i like to add 20-25%
so at the end he has 14-16 losing chances
for the way he played (and the lack of enough info), and skipping any attempt to bluff (including all the hands above)
he had a:
77, JJ, AA (and got the set in the flop)
QQ (and got the set in the river)
or AK and in this case you were won but is the unique case, so at the end i think you did the right move, folding after the river