This is a discussion on $5 NLHE 6-max: Fold two pair against BTN open within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/16/1.5
Hero A♥️9♥️ BB Villain BTN . Preflop bets 0, 12 Hero calls 0, 07... Flop K♣️A♠️6♥️ Hero checks Villain bets 0, 15
I would call but I'm known for being a swing-happy cash gamer who 'ignores math' in my decisions and plays what I believe is simply the right thing.
I do admit one thing though, his AF is insanely low 1.5% aggression factor and yet he's betting so much. This is where I am curious about his flop cbet rate. If his flop cbet rate thus far implies he habitually c bets then i'd definitely allin as you can easily be against an aq/aj here (sure AK would be devastating but this is gambling after all)
I would seriously call here unless he is known to NOT cbet often at the flop and if his PFR is genuinely 16% after say... 30 hands or more.
Finally, there is a stats with Jivaro called ST means how often they raise when very close to button or button itself (to steal blinds) if this is 0% or like <10% for this guy, i'd also hesitate especially if he both steals that rarely AND cbets rarely. THEN I would consider KKK or AK or something.
October 18th, 2017, 6:05 PM
re: Poker & $5 NLHE 6-max: Fold two pair against BTN open
Taking this through flopzilla:
Given villains stats and that he is on the button im assigning a large 30% open range. This means he has a range of:
Before any action on the flop, you have 76% equity and their is a 84% chance you have the best hand.
On this flop with this range, villian is going to have 2pair or a set about ~5% of the time and a better kicker than you ~8%.
Given that, villain hits some part of this board over 60% of the time, lets assume he only c-bets gut-shots and any pair+.
After the 9c turn, Villain is most likely barreling on a flush draw (which he only has 7% of the time), and the only hands villain has that beat you are 8 combos of sets and 6 combos of 2 pair higher than yours.
However, villain may only call your c/r with A high flush draws, sets and two pairs(better than yours or not). Maybe villain calls with top pair if he believes you are getting agressive with a flush draw.
After the river, you have the best hand 59% of the time.
Assuming you cover(maybe even if you don't), id say call the bet.
If i were to play the hand with hind sight, i would have put in a c/r, maybe 60-80c or so. then hes going to shove AA-KK and AK and call with alot of other A high hands. When you hit the two pair, lead out for 60-70% pot. Generate a fold or extra value because with this line there are many less club combos.
October 19th, 2017, 6:30 AM
Online Poker at: None
Button raise is pretty wide. I like the check call on the flop. He has a lot on non Ace hands. I like the check raise on the turn. So what does he have that would open on the button, Cbet the flop and raise call the turn? I like Madman's thoughts on Villain's history on cbetting. I suspect since you just called pre-flop, Villain is encouraged to cbet even more than she normally would.
Looks pretty standard medium hand till she calls the check raise. Ace of clubs with another club? Yes, but there aren't that many combos. AKo? Maybe. AA, KK? Sure, but wouldn't she push on the turn to make the flush draw pay?
What can you beat on the river that Villain would push? Bluffs, K9 and A8. Less combos that beat you.
When I first read the question I was thinking it was a call, but after writing it out I have to fold. Money not lost is just as good as money won.