$5 NLHE 6-max: Fold with QQ on River...

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Rhinelander

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Full Tilt - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $4.98 (VPIP: 13.51, PFR: 5.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 37)
Hero (BTN): $17.15
SB: $1.69 (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 12.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 118)
BB: $5.85 (VPIP: 48.15, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 27)
UTG: $2.10 (VPIP: 16.40, PFR: 14.02, 3Bet Preflop: 3.31, Hands: 387)
MP: $6.20 (VPIP: 67.57, PFR: 8.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q:club: Q:diamond:

UTG raises to $0.10, MP calls $0.10, fold, Hero raises to $0.45, fold, fold, fold, MP calls $0.35
--> The fact that he calls my 3-Bet doesn't indicate anything. Villain called 4 out of 5 3-Bets prior to this one.

Flop: ($1.07, 2 players) 7:diamond: A:heart: A:diamond:
MP checks, Hero bets $0.75, MP calls $0.75
--> Vilains Fold to CBet% was 60% which made me think that he indeed might have an A (or a flush draw).

Turn: ($2.57, 2 players) 3:heart:
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.57, 2 players) A:club:
MP bets $5.00 and is all-in, fold
Looking back it might have been absolutely fine to call this bet. What held me back is that his river-bet% was just 32%.

Bsed on those stats it looks like a wrong fold to me now...
 
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byrnsiey330

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The only hand that beats you is KK. He only raised 2 BB preflop, which makes me think he doesn't have that. You HAVE to call. He probably had K7, or something like that. You pretty much have the nuts here. I would have definitely call.
 
RegHC23

RegHC23

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I agree with byrnsley. I would have never folded that hand. He is right only KK could have beaten you in this hand, and if by some unfortunate luck for you that he had the fourth A then you were screwed anyway with 4 of a kind over boat. Now I do not know what site you played on and I do not know how much time you were given in order to make the decision, but this win or loss would be something I would just have to live with. He is loose and i am pretty sure he has a smaller boat then what you had. If he had KK he might have 4 bet you pre flop and tried to even jam you and get it all in. This is just my opinion and you will get it back. So good luck in the future.
 
Arjonius

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The only hand that beats you is KK. He only raised 2 BB preflop, which makes me think he doesn't have that. You HAVE to call. He probably had K7, or something like that. You pretty much have the nuts here. I would have definitely call.
I'd call too, but just looking at what he might have that beats you is incomplete reasoning. It doesn't factor in what he can have that you beat, or the pot odds.

It's also a fairly thin read to think he's less likely to have KK because he only opened for 2x pre-.
 
Mr Sandbag

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MP: $6.20 (VPIP: 67.57, PFR: 8.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)

--> The fact that he calls my 3-Bet doesn't indicate anything. Villain called 4 out of 5 3-Bets prior to this one.

--> Vilains Fold to CBet% was 60% which made me think that he indeed might have an A (or a flush draw).

What held me back is that his river-bet% was just 32%.

I think it was a good fold, honestly. Not a huge sample size, but based on his current numbers and the other reads, villain appears to be a super loose/passive terribad fish.

The statement in bold seems like a pretty solid read. I highly doubt this particular villain is shoving missed flush draws on the river, and I don't really see him shoving 7x or medium pocket pairs either.

Sick fold, IMO.
 
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DunningKruger

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Why is everyone talking about 6 combinations of KK and not the 44 combinations of Ax. I don't think kings are very likely given pre and river.
 
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byrnsiey330

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Why is everyone talking about 6 combinations of KK and not the 44 combinations of Ax. I don't think kings are very likely given pre and river.

Like I said, if he is holding Ax, then tell him congrats on the hand, but c/c post flop, and just checking on the turn makes me think that he wasn't holding an Ax.
 
John A

John A

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Like I said, if he is holding Ax, then tell him congrats on the hand, but c/c post flop, and just checking on the turn makes me think that he wasn't holding an Ax.

Yeah, villains line can absolutely by Ax.

Any ways, usually over bets are the nuts at these stakes. It's unlikely he has KK based on his stats and what you said about his 3-bet calling. So he's super polarized to Ax or missed flush draw looking to push you off a medium pocket pair.

I'd probably call based on the opponent, but I wouldn't be loving it either as I expect to see quads a good amount of the time. I don't think folding is a huge -EV play since the spot is fairly close imho.
 
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