$5 NLHE 6-max: Facing shove at river w/Second Nuts vs NIT

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pokekrk

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 10/7/1.5

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 104.4 BB (VPIP: 10.86, PFR: 7.32, 3Bet Preflop: 1.20, hands: 1630)
SB: 45.4 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BB: 143.6 BB (VPIP: 15.13, PFR: 11.84, 3Bet Preflop: 4.08, Hands: 157)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.04, PFR: 10.87, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 46)
MP: 167.4 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 47)
Hero (CO): 135 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.4 BB, 3 players) 9 2 T
BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, BTN calls 6 BB, fold

Turn: (21.4 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 13.4 BB, BTN calls 13.4 BB

River: (48.2 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero bets 25 BB, BTN raises to 81 BB,

Should I call river shove knowing that my opponent is big NIT? I have 2.75:1 to call which is 27% but when I put him on KQ-JQ I don't have odds to call. I also know that he thinks longer when he hasn't got nuts and this time he shoves instantly.
 
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roddy1977

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Interesting - if he has KQ he has the nuts on the turn but only calls. I guess it depends on how much you know about him, like if you know he is a scared nit then might he raise on the turn to protect his hand with the flop containing two hearts? Though I guess a lot of players, nits or otherwise, would flat call and hope you bet again.

It's a real tough decision for sure, particularly as you've already invested 47BBs. But maybe you should go with your read, after all, if he's such a nit and only has a queen, would he not be worried that you have KQ and only call on the river?

What did you end up doing? :)
 
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pokekrk

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I couldn't fold here and he had KhQh so it make sense for him to not raise turn.
 
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