$5 NLHE 6-max: Facing a shove on flop 200BB eff on a 4way squeeze

Alucard

Alucard

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Small sample
AF = 1
F3B pre - 1/1
No flop raise stats both 3b/non 3b.

pokerstars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 83.8 BB (VPIP: 48.48, PFR: 15.15, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 34)
Hero (SB): 198.4 BB
BB: 425.2 BB (VPIP: 21.42, PFR: 14.78, 3Bet Preflop: 4.86, Hands: 1,987)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
MP: 189.4 BB (VPIP: 18.87, PFR: 18.87, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 55)
CO: 100.4 BB (VPIP: 32.00, PFR: 28.00, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 27)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Ac Ah
fold, MP raises to 3.2 BB, CO calls 3.2 BB, BTN calls 3.2 BB, Hero raises to 16 BB, fold, MP calls 12.8 BB, fold, fold

Flop : (39.4 BB, 2 players) 3s Qc 3c
Hero bets 12 BB, MP raises to 173.4 BB and is all-in,


I like my cbet size here. But never thought he'd cram it in for 175Bigs. What are the hands he would do this with? Kings? AQ?
Queens would try to go for value playing 3 streets or so I would think.
Thoughts?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Snap this off.

Nice hand.
 
D

Dwarf

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At this level, it doesn't look like a value shove.

If he has a boat he probably wants to give you an opportunity to improve to atleast a flush.

This seems like a play he might make with aces, kings, aq, kq.

Because you have the ace of clubs, i doubt hes semi bluffing his flush draw.

I'd then question, is he calling a 4bet with A3o? Call and find out where he leaks his money.
 
1dkp0k3r

1dkp0k3r

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Only hands that you have to be scared of are QQ, 33 and A3 suited (yes, A3 off is possible, but let's give this guy a little credit).

Pre flop QQ would probably want to put in a 4 bet, at least to isolate you and go to a flop heads up. KK and AA would do the same, but we beat or tie those hands.

33 or A3 suited would 3 bet and call pre flop since you are both 190 BB deep, great implied odds. I think that AQ and KQ suited and off suit would play this the same way.

But would flopped quads, full house or trips bet this aggressively? Probably not, but I have seen it. Would AQ or KQ play this aggressively? I would think that these hands would call or put in a small raise, with calling being a better play IMO, but I have seen it.

I think that without more information, that this is a call. You can discount QQ, so the only hands that you are behind are A3 and 33. You might even see this guy roll over 77 or a random Qx, with the occasional Q3 off suit that will make you want to drop kick your computer out the window as you puke everywhere
 
Verdue167

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Considering his stats villain does not look like a maniac. What hands would call a 13 bb reraise? My first instinct is a medium pocket pair for the setmine or hands like TT JJ QQ. Maybe AK and AQ AJs are in his range as well. Depending on your table image he may call KQ or QJ . KK and AA would probably shove. So only hands that beat you are QQ, but i doubt a player like this would play his monster this aggro postflop ( even if he has a 3). So my guess is he shoves an JJ or TT to put you of a Q or he has a QJ AQ or KQ type of hand
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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My issue in a hand like this is that not only does this guy not look like a maniac, he also appears to be a reasonably solid TAG regular over our sample, which means he might be taking extremely exploitative lines vs the generally soft field at the micros.

However. We need to be realistic about the combinations that exist that beat us, and the likelihood of him holding a worse hand. Realistic hands that beat us are QQ, 33, and A3s. There is 1 combo of 33, 1 combo of A3s, and 3 combos of QQ. He might not hold onto A3s and 33 preflop, and with QQ he blocks AQ and likely wants to string us along. He probably in reality is never jamming 33 either because it makes the minimum against all our bluffs, doesn't let flush draws catch up, etc. So he's more likely to take this actual line with A3s, but again, only 1 combination.

Now what hands do we beat? We hold the Ac in our hand, so no Ax of clubs combinations are possible, which is sort of annoying because that's a large class of hands that make this decision easy if he can have them. But he MAY hold something like KK here, preferring to take flops vs your large squeeze preflop. This is still 5nl after all - he doesn't necessarily always 4bet it. Plus there are 6 combos of it, so even if he only gets to this spot and does this with KK a fraction of the time, it doesn't seem hard to come up with 1 combo of it to offset our 1 combo of A3s.

There is even the chance that on this flush draw board he goes mad with AQ (6 combos) some portion of the time, and while I deem JJ- to be extremely unlikely, who knows. It wouldn't be the first time I've seen something like this.

Add in some fractional combos of KJcc, JTcc, and T9cc on a board where he will expect us to fold all our bluffs, and I think we have a fairly straightforward call.

That all being said, again it's 5nl and from a guy with stats like this in a 55 hand sample I do expect to get shown a better hand sometimes. I'm especially curious to know what our stats are vs him too - if we have not 3bet at all in 55 hands and now we squeeze here, he may weight us much more heavily toward QQ+ and if he hold QQ himself he could just exploitatively jam here. But we're starting to get into a bit of leveling here and at the end of the day we hold almost the top of our range, so we shouldn't sweat too hard about going with it.
 
Alucard

Alucard

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I snapped it.
V held TT
Thanks for the analysis everyone. I guess it's the cbet size that made him do this.
 
TheBigFinn

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Considering his stats villain does not look like a maniac. What hands would call a 13 bb reraise? My first instinct is a medium pocket pair for the setmine or hands like TT JJ QQ. Maybe AK and AQ AJs are in his range as well. Depending on your table image he may call KQ or QJ . KK and AA would probably shove. So only hands that beat you are QQ, but i doubt a player like this would play his monster this aggro postflop ( even if he has a 3). So my guess is he shoves an JJ or TT to put you of a Q or he has a QJ AQ or KQ type of hand

This sounds right. Although think KQ or QJ are unlikely. MP was the first raiser so he has to have a top 15% range. The 13 BB 3-bet is typical in a situation with the over callers, so his call range pre-flop isn't all that tight. The shove is the problem.

Hero is losing to any 3, QQ, and 33. A 3 is the most likely hand that would shove, IMHO, but there are so few 3s that call the 3-bet. Functionally Hero is flipping here and with so few losing combos compared to the winning ones, I'd call.
 
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