$5 NLHE 6-max: facing a shove on the river with a set

remus_ny

remus_ny

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poker stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

MP: $14.64 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 13, AF: 6.0, Hands: 49
CO: $5.96 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 1.5, hands: 40
Hero (BTN): $7.35 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 3.8, Hands: 155143
SB: $5.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 8, AF: 1.5, Hands: 121
BB: $5.07 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 13, 3B: 8, AF: 0.5, Hands: 46
UTG: $8.33 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 22, 3B: 0, AF: 4.0, Hands: 54

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with :3h4: :3s4:
1 fold, MP raises to $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) :ks4: :10c4: :3d4: (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, BB folds

Turn: ($1.17) :9d4: (2 players)
MP bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2, MP raises to $14.14, Hero ?
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

MP: $14.64 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 13, AF: 6.0, Hands: 49
CO: $5.96 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 1.5, Hands: 40
Hero (BTN): $7.35 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 3.8, Hands: 155143
SB: $5.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 8, AF: 1.5, Hands: 121
BB: $5.07 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 13, 3B: 8, AF: 0.5, Hands: 46
UTG: $8.33 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 22, 3B: 0, AF: 4.0, Hands: 54

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with :3h4: :3s4:
1 fold, MP raises to $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) :ks4: :10c4: :3d4: (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, BB folds

Turn: ($1.17) :9d4: (2 players)
MP bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2, MP raises to $14.14, Hero ?
easiest call youve ever made in your entire life. he could be overplaying aces or ak or even two pair. SHIP IT! cant see you calling pocket 3's catching ur trips and folding here. if he has it,so be it,but i could never let go of this here.
 
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I would call. What would be the point of set-mining, if you fold it here.
Especially that you have less then 5$ to call, and there is 5$ in the pot.

I would guess vilain on 2 pairs, or top pair with straight/flush draw.
 
John A

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Any other reads? You have sick odds, but he'd have to be shoving KT/AK and combo draws like AdKd, Kdxd,AdTd, etc... so often here it's kind of sick. Everything else has you crushed. He seems like he may be aggressive enough, but really you probably have ~30% to maybe 35% equity versus his range and you're getting about 2:1 to call, so it's actually pretty close, and depending on a read could be a fold. I hate folding sets though. :(
 
Deco

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I fold.
We need 32.6% equity:

Worst case scenario we have:

Board: Ks Tc 3d 9d
Hand 0: 89.545% { KK, TT, QJs }
Hand 1: 10.455% { 33 }



Seeing as our villain is looking to be a bit nitty this range may not be far off, lets throw in some completely unnegated straight flush draws (I'd expect flats rather than 3bets from them tbh) and things don't look much better.


Board: Ks Tc 3d 9d
Hand 0: 78.409% { KK, TT, AdQd, AdJd, QJs }
Hand 1: 21.591% { 33 }


We pretty much need villain 3betting this turn with AA or AK, if that's feasible this is a call, I personally think there's more chance of seeing a rocking horse shit but I don't know the stakes.
 
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baudib1

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if you don't want to stack off here then raising turn is horrible. raising flop >>> raising turn.
 
remus_ny

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well guys, I called and he showed QJ. I had no reads on him but somehow I knew he had a straight or bigger set. Anyway at least I still had 10 outs to make the nuts and the river gave me a 9. yeah lucky me. Last 2 months I had a pretty bad downswing, my EV line was almost triple compared to my winnings, so it's about time to have a little luck too. :p
 
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vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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well guys, I called and he showed QJ. I had no reads on him but somehow I knew he had a straight or bigger set. Anyway at least I still had 10 outs to make the nuts.
wow! just WOW. hard to believe.unlucky man. you know sometimes in spots like that it feels like a fold and u just cant let go. the way the board was laid out he could have definitely have hands you beat. unlucky man.
 
Aleksei

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I fold.
We need 32.6% equity:

Worst case scenario we have:

Board: Ks Tc 3d 9d
Hand 0: 89.545% { KK, TT, QJs }
Hand 1: 10.455% { 33 }



Seeing as our villain is looking to be a bit nitty this range may not be far off, lets throw in some completely unnegated straight flush draws (I'd expect flats rather than 3bets from them tbh) and things don't look much better.


Board: Ks Tc 3d 9d
Hand 0: 78.409% { KK, TT, AdQd, AdJd, QJs }
Hand 1: 21.591% { 33 }


We pretty much need villain 3betting this turn with AA or AK, if that's feasible this is a call, I personally think there's more chance of seeing a rocking horse shit but I don't know the stakes.
I don't think we should discount AA/AK/KT that readily.

There's this weird psychological aspect to dealing with scared nits. Someone who's playing far tighter than is reasonable for the format is typically not a very advanced thinker and is more likely thinking along the lines of "if I open super premium hands and continue when I'm good I'll always have better hands than everyone else and I don't have to worry about being beat or having to think through tough spots!" They're not often thinking that much about the probability of getting coolered, and they continue after the flop so infrequently that they feel entitled to win with any hand they consider strong enough to continue with (sort of like how really bad lags feel entitled to take down the pot if they have both position and initiative). This goes double if they've caught you bluffing recently, because they'll level themselves into thinking you have air or a worse value hand because they don't wanna fold the turn and wait another billion hands to get a spot they feel comfortable extracting value from. My mentor once extracted a $2,000 stack from a nit in a live 1/3 game when the nit overshoved with AA vs his made straight, exploiting this tendency.

So, I would expect at least KT/AA in his range, if not AK. Even just KT is enough for us to have sufficient equity to call.
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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I don't think we should discount AA/AK/KT that readily.

There's this weird psychological aspect to dealing with scared nits. Someone who's playing far tighter than is reasonable for the format is typically not a very advanced thinker and is more likely thinking along the lines of "if I open super premium hands and continue when I'm good I'll always have better hands than everyone else and I don't have to worry about being beat or having to think through tough spots!" They're not often thinking that much about the probability of getting coolered, and they continue after the flop so infrequently that they feel entitled to win with any hand they consider strong enough to continue with (sort of like how really bad lags feel entitled to take down the pot if they have both position and initiative). This goes double if they've caught you bluffing recently, because they'll level themselves into thinking you have air or a worse value hand because they don't wanna fold the turn and wait another billion hands to get a spot they feel comfortable extracting value from. My mentor once extracted a $2,000 stack from a nit in a live 1/3 game when the nit overshoved with AA vs his made straight, exploiting this tendency.

So, I would expect at least KT/AA in his range, if not AK. Even just KT is enough for us to have sufficient equity to call.
Alexei. i like your posts man. your a deep thinker. i agree here. cant fold this ever. there are just alot of hand you can beat .
 
Aleksei

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Thanks man, I appreciate that. :D I still consider myself an amateur though -- I give the game a ton of theoretical thought, but there's still not so much leaks as gaping hemorrhages in my game (some related to inexperience but mostly related to lack of discipline) that I'm working on closing up. Right now I'm about breaking even with huge swings.

I wouldn't say a lot though. I mean there are a lot if he's capable of shoving with AK, but if he's not we're down to AA (6 combos), KT (9 combos), flush+gutters (2 combos), QJs (4 combos) and sets (6 combos). With KT in we beat about 40% of his range and with AA in we outright beat his range, but it's a close shave. Still enough that I'd call though, personally.
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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Thanks man, I appreciate that. :D I still consider myself an amateur though -- I give the game a ton of theoretical thought, but there's still not so much leaks as gaping hemorrhages in my game (some related to inexperience but mostly related to lack of discipline) that I'm working on closing up. Right now I'm about breaking even with huge swings.

I wouldn't say a lot though. I mean there are a lot if he's capable of shoving with AK, but if he's not we're down to AA (6 combos), KT (9 combos), flush+gutters (2 combos), QJs (4 combos) and sets (6 combos). With KT in we beat about 40% of his range and with AA in we outright beat his range, but it's a close shave. Still enough that I'd call though, personally.

lol.fair enough. let me ask you another question. the combos you mention in the post above. do you just have them at the corner of your brain or did u actually think about them one by one? lol:hmmmm:

jokes aside yeah ur right.
 
Aleksei

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lol.fair enough. let me ask you another question. the combos you mention in the post above. do you just have them at the corner of your brain or did u actually think about them one by one? lol:hmmmm:
Both, actually. :p I know how many iterations there are of a given 2pair/suited hand/set/PP/etc. and I just had to add them up. It was pretty easy work here, there's 2 possible hands per group at most plus FDs are just 1 combo per hand (I tend not to give people a lot of credit for flushes/FDs for that reason :D).
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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Both, actually. :p I know how many iterations there are of a given 2pair/suited hand/set/PP/etc. and I just had to add them up. It was pretty easy work here, there's 2 possible hands per group at most plus FDs are just 1 combo per hand (I tend not to give people a lot of credit for flushes/FDs for that reason :D).
see, to me thats impressive. i cant make those calculations that fast. i think about things in a more "bulky way". works alright but might be a leak.
 
Aleksei

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Well I can't do it that fast at the table because I play smallball (basically I minraise from every position to force people to show up with wider ranges then play a tricky/merged game postflop), l so the ranges I deal with are too wide/merged to calculate before the clock runs out. I mostly go with general impressions of "likely/less likely/unlikely," which really is the only way most people can deal with a given spot in an online game as you have 30 seconds at most to make a decision. What I'm doing is considering the spots off-table and trying to get an intuitive feel for the numbers involved so I know more or less how the spot develops next time I'm in it (especially if the spot in question is marginal/interesting).

One example of that is in a HU game I played with my my mentor a few weeks ago. I minraised with 7h5c, he flatted OOP, then I flopped bottom OESD + baby FD on a K86 hearts board. I raised his donk and then flat a 3bet, then semibluff shoved over his raise on a blank turn and spiked a heart otr to beat his Kings. Working off-table confirmed that I was slightly ahead of his range even after shoving since I was drawing to two hands and he'd usually either have a made hand or be drawing to one, but it took me like a half hour to come to that exact conclusion because the spot was so marginal, and his range was so wide (basically his call shove range there would be 66, Kx, 97, 75s, flushes and any single Heart higher than 9).
 
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