$5 NLHE 6-max: Facing a shove on the river with a set

remus_ny

remus_ny

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poker stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
MP: $6.01 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, hands: 20
Hero (CO): $5.63 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 3.9, Hands: 144000
BTN: $5.15 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 10, 3B: 3, AF: 1.6, Hands: 144
SB: $6.42 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 10, AF: 1.0, Hands: 28
BB: $16.78 - VPIP: 36, PFR: 14, 3B: 18, AF: 14.0, Hands: 56
UTG: $5.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 19, 3B: 10, AF: 2.2, Hands: 142

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with :3s4: :3c4:
UTG raises to $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) :4h4: :3h4: :kd4: (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, BB folds

Turn: ($1.07) :8c4: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.70, UTG calls $0.70

River: ($2.47) :9s4: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.60, UTG raises to $3.85, Hero ???
 
LD1977

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I call and he turns over AK of hearts :D KK/AA/other AKs have to fear the FD on turn so he doesn't check there and other pairs don't play like this (maybe exactly 88).
 
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Aleksei

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His range there is probably better sets, AA, AK, K9h/K8h, 89h, and third barrels with stuff like A8h or 65/76h.

So basically we crush him, and even if we didn't we're getting redonkulous odds -- 3.5:1 or something. Not calling here would be retarded.
 
LD1977

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Nope, guy is UTG and not too loose, I don't see A(rag)s/K9/K8/small SCs there.

Small sample though, so Axs is a maybe.
 
Aleksei

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Nope, guy is UTG and not too loose, I don't see A(rag)s/K9/K8/small SCs there.
Suited Aces aren't anything even resembling rags and are super standard to open from any position. SCs are actually decent to open in EP because of speculative value/IOs, and don't really constitute a very large range anyway.

But still, even if his range is just AA/AK and sets, just 40% of his range constitutes sets, so we're good 60% of the time. Hell come to think of it if he'll believe we have a worse King we're perfectly good shoving for thin value here.

Like I said, folding is stupid. If he has the set, consider yourself coolered.
 
LD1977

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I meant Ace-rag suited, not that suited Ace = rag

So A3/A4/A8 of hearts are somewhat possible with this line.
 
Aleksei

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Yeah but even if we assume he's completely nitty and will only show up here with AA and sets we're good a bloody third of the time. This is never ever ever a fold.
 
LD1977

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Of course, I never said otherwise.

Just that I think AKs is the most likely considering his UTG raise and the line... chkraise on the river seems pretty strange considering that made hands would have bet the turn.
 
RodneyC86

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Of course, I never said otherwise.

Just that I think AKs is the most likely considering his UTG raise and the line... chkraise on the river seems pretty strange considering that made hands would have bet the turn.

There is no doubt bigger sets are possible here but you are still much more likely to run into AK as a whole.

That's one weird line to take for AK though! on the turn he's pot controlling, then he is value? Min raising? Lol, not too surprise though, 5nl noobs thinks AK tptk is the nuts.
 
Aleksei

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There is no doubt bigger sets are possible here but you are still much more likely to run into AK as a whole.

That's one weird line to take for AK though! on the turn he's pot controlling, then he is value? Min raising?
He didn't minraise he shoved.
 
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142 hands = you should have some pretty good reads, provide them

I would say that calling river is so ridiculously easy/standard this is barely worth a thread, except that talking about his range is probably worth the discussion:

1. Any kind of reasonable stove for this player (barring specific reads not given in OP) gives us crushing equity.
2. Furthermore we should be heavily discounting bigger sets on the flop -- bigger sets are just hoping you have KQ/AK and generally trying to bomb all 3 streets. If he's checking turn with KK/44/88, then it's usually to check-raise.
3. Don't think you have a good handle on what his range is (again, no reads given). But K9s is a top 15% hand, 17% if you give him all pocket pairs. With a few nits behind and a fish in the blinds, he can for sure be opening such hands here.
 
LD1977

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If he is opening 19% total then UTG has to be much lower (10-12%) if he has even a vague clue about position, so K9s should be out, no?
 
runnerx289

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Personally I fold preflop. But as played re-raise flop
 
remus_ny

remus_ny

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Thank you guys. Well this hand was pretty bad for me. I called and he showed 99. Lucky Bastard.
 
remus_ny

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Personally I fold preflop. But as played re-raise flop

why would I do that? I want to set mine here. I have position and my hand can't stand a 4bet from UTG. Maybe with TT+
 
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