This is a discussion on $5 NLHE 6-max: Do I have a bluff here?? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; 888 Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (BB): 133 BB
UTG: 123.6 BB (VPIP: 15.87, PFR:
What are you asking, if you should rep the flush to get him off a King? He could have a weakish King but I'm thinking he would usually bet out. This looks like a delayed CBet, probably some kind of Ax hand. You have showdown value. No need to bluff, just check it back.
January 20th, 2018, 9:33 PM
I agree with previous posters. Checking back is fine.
January 21st, 2018, 10:52 PM
Checking back is +EV because there is some non-zero percentage of the time that you win. Let's say it's 25%, which is EV of +3.8 BB. So the question is if EV of bluffing is more than that? I think you will fold out all hands that you beat and get called by almost anything that beats you. The only successful bluffs would be vs specific combos of TPWK, QQ, JJ, TT without a spade. Without counting all hands in villain's range it looks like very few combos to make the bluff more +EV than checking.
January 22nd, 2018, 2:14 AM
Poker at: None
The whole hand is Meh? SB doesn't need to have much to raise and Hero need even less to call. Either one of you could have a bad king, but pairing up the 8 or 9 seems more likely. Your passive check back on the flop could have embolden a turn bet bluff, or a small pair. Villain might have also filled the flush. I would have bet pre, but if I had checked I would have folded the turn.
Hero's play doesn't looks like he had a bad pair with a spade. Why would Villain check the river?
1. She plans the check call with a middling spade.
2. She wants to get to shown down for free with a pair, but no flush.
3. She plans to Check fold to a decent size bet.
4. She plans to check raise a good spade.
There are 9 spades left in the 47 cards you can't see. call it 2/5 that Villain has a spade and that she'll call or raise 1/2 of them. You can't call (or push) a check raise. There is also the chance she can't beat your ace.
Soooooo, how often does the bluff have to work to be plus EV? If you bet 10BBs you win 14 when it works and lose 10 when it doesn't. Not very compelling either way, so the question is Villain a calling station? If so best check it back. If Villain is tight, sound like it's time to bet. In the 41 hands you have on her she has never 3-bet. Not very many hands, but its kinda tight isn't it? What the heck, go for it.
January 22nd, 2018, 9:24 AM
Online Poker at: PokerStars
re: Poker & $5 NLHE 6-max: Do I have a bluff here??
Just check it back, small pot, if he has a spade he aint folding in my eyes, unless you bet some ridiculously big amount and that is too risky. Just check it back. In these spots I check it back most of the time.
January 22nd, 2018, 7:34 PM
John A [5,416]
What hands do you think he checks on the flop, and then bets the turn? Maybe TT-QQ? Maybe 9x. Small range, and some of those will have spades that are calling the river.