$5 NLHE 6-max: Do I risk losing value by checking this turn with a flopped straight?

mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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iPoker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 98.8 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 3)
UTG: 38.4 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 5)
CO: 121.4 BB (VPIP: 46.15, PFR: 30.77, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
BTN: 100.8 BB (VPIP: 69.23, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
Hero (SB): 100 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T:diamond: K:heart:

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 5 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, BB calls 5 BB

Flop: (22 BB, 2 players) A:heart: Q:spade: J:club:
Hero bets 12 BB, BB calls 12 BB

Turn: (46 BB, 2 players) 2:diamond:
Hero checks, BB ....


So, I'm thinking the 4 bet may have been a little ambitious, but cbet on the flop is pretty standard IMO, and then I'm thinking that the check makes my Cbet OTF look like a cbet bluff and now I'm giving up, which would induce a bet from villain and then I can stack off. Is this logic flawed?
 
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rhombus

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4 bet pot was indeed ambitious ;)

Nice flop and they called so keep firing as they will have lots of 2 pairs and maybe sets.

Only other hand they maybe have is underpair like 66 or 77 which they won't call River if you check turn so you might as well get value from AK/AQ/AJ/AT and possible sets
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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4 bet pot was indeed ambitious ;)

Nice flop and they called so keep firing as they will have lots of 2 pairs and maybe sets.

Only other hand they maybe have is underpair like 66 or 77 which they won't call River if you check turn so you might as well get value from AK/AQ/AJ/AT and possible sets

They're probably not betting the turn with anything less than tptk right? I guess by checking, the only thing I can really hope for is if they have a single pair and turn it into a set on the river..
 
IPlay

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Preflop 😂😂😂

Absolutely terrible. Just fold and if you really feel the need to play this hand raise to 6bb and fold to the 3bet.

I'm not trying to be too harsh but can you explain your preflop thought process? AP bet turn, he has lots of sets/2p in his range we can get value from. You seem to have a "bet when behind, check when ahead" fancy play syndrome going on.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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Preflop ������

Absolutely terrible. Just fold and if you really feel the need to play this hand raise to 6bb and fold to the 3bet.

I'm not trying to be too harsh but can you explain your preflop thought process? AP bet turn, he has lots of sets/2p in his range we can get value from. You seem to have a "bet when behind, check when ahead" fancy play syndrome going on.

Raise the small blind because im thinking btn is folding to a raise most of the time if he limped, I can potentially steal the BB, and i'd say its probably about 50/50 chance that UTG is going to call. KToff is at the lower end of my range, but its not a horrible hand, maybe out of position, but I dont mind seeing a flop oop with KToff and giving up if I miss. When BB 3bet, Im thinking he's 3betting extremely light (especially with that sizing) and im probably about even with him most of the time. for a fairly cheap 4bet, i think I have enough of a chance to take down the pot right there while also having enough equity to improve on the flop often enough to make the 4bet profitable. andrew seidman talks about his formula for aggression is aggression = pot equity + fold equity, although he admits this formula is oversimplified. does that make sense? if we are pretty close to 45 - 50% pot equity (estimating, a little generously here because its blind v blind), is oppenent folding often enough to a 4 bet in order to make the 4 bet +EV?


Youre right though about betting behind and checking ahead... i should do the opposite of that.:rolleyes:
 
Beanfacekilla

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WTF @ preflop. What are you doing?


FPS?


Why do people always try to trap, and expect villains to bet their hand for them?


Dude, as played (after preflop shit show), bet the hand man. Yes, bet the turn. Bet bet bet.



I don't understand the thought process. Here we are, OOP, and we get all whacky preflop (in a bad spot). Now we have the nutz, and we probably get action, but you are checking?


I'm just gonna be blunt here. We're you high? Drunk? You played this hand like a fish bro.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Raise the small blind because im thinking btn is folding to a raise most of the time if he limped, I can potentially steal the BB, and i'd say its probably about 50/50 chance that UTG is going to call. KToff is at the lower end of my range, but its not a horrible hand, maybe out of position, but I dont mind seeing a flop oop with KToff and giving up if I miss. When BB 3bet, Im thinking he's 3betting extremely light (especially with that sizing) and im probably about even with him most of the time. for a fairly cheap 4bet, i think I have enough of a chance to take down the pot right there while also having enough equity to improve on the flop often enough to make the 4bet profitable. andrew seidman talks about his formula for aggression is aggression = pot equity + fold equity, although he admits this formula is oversimplified. does that make sense? if we are pretty close to 45 - 50% pot equity (estimating, a little generously here because its blind v blind), is oppenent folding often enough to a 4 bet in order to make the 4 bet +EV?


Youre right though about betting behind and checking ahead... i should do the opposite of that.:rolleyes:


In what universe is this dude folding for 5 more BB IP? You comment on dudes fishy 3b size, and you have a fishy 4b size.


Stop with FPS. Just play ABC poker, make value hands, bet them. Micros in a nutshell.
 
mbrenneman0

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Im trying to work out the math, does anyone know the formula for ev if we are calculating to including fold equity?
the formula for calling is simply EV = (equity x ammt won) - ((1-equity) x ammt lost) right?

like how often does villain have to fold, mathematically, in order for a 4 bet to be more EV than calling? like does even a 10% chance of villain folding help us?
 
IPlay

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The highest ev play is folding
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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So can someone check my math? not sure if I'm doing this right.

For the sake of example, lets assume villain has a 10% 3bet range, which i think is pretty average for big blind 3betting against an attempt to steal from the small blind.

against a 10% range, our KTo has 34.3% equity

EV to call = (0.343 x 12bb) - (0.657 x 2bb) = 2.8bb



as played, would it be fair to assume villain folds 10% of the time against a 4bet to 10bb?
if so...

EV of 4bet to 10bb = (0.343 x 22bb) - (0.657 x 7bb) + (0.10 x 10bb) = 3.9bb
(thats 2.9bb before adding the value from the assumed 10% fold equity)



if we 4bet to 15bb, could we assume villain now folds 20% of the time?
if so...

EV of 4bet to 15bb = (0.343 x 32bb) - (0.657 x 12bb) + (0.20 x 10bb) = 5.1bb
(3.1bb before adding the value from assumed fold equity)


Is this math correct?

If we assume that villain is folding 10% of the time, do we also have to adjust our equity against a tighter range? like if he is folding 10% of the time, then we lose the bottom 10% of his range if he calls so we would have to compare our equity to a 9% range right? if so, our equity becomes 33.1%

so our EV as played wouldnt be 3.9, it would be
EV = (0.331 x 22bb) - (0.668 x 7bb) + (0.10 x 10bb) = 3.6bb


I think the math works out in favor of the 4bet, if my assumptions are correct. but I think I should have gone for a 4bet to 15bb instead of 10bb.


So yes, I agree with you guys, I should have bet the turn. But I think the 4bet pre is more profitable than calling or folding even if villain isnt folding.



Anyways, results:
Villain bet half pot, I minraise, villain minraises back, and i put the last 8bb in.

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T:diamond: K:heart:

Flop: (22 BB, 2 players) A:heart: Q:spade: J:club:

Turn: (46 BB, 2 players) 2:diamond:
Hero checks, BB bets 23 BB, Hero raises to 46 BB, BB raises to 69 BB, Hero raises to 78 BB, BB calls 7.8 BB

River: (199.6 BB, 2 players) 7:heart:

BB shows J:spade: A:spade: (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 65%, Flop 22%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows T:diamond: K:heart: (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 35%, Flop 78%, Turn 91%)
Hero wins 191 BB
 
Aces2w1n

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Flatting never good pre with KT... I do like the 4bet tbh for the steal. Only problem I have with this for this to be profitable we really need more information on BB

I wouldn't be playing this board slow we have a hand our opponents possibly couldn't put us on and theres plenty of second best hands out there which will pay.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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If we bet the turn, how do we decide how much? Should we just bet the standard 2/3pot?
 
Nathan Williams

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Preflop isolation raise needs to be bigger. 4Bet is a very bad idea with this hand and being out of position. You managed to flop the nuts though so all you should be doing is value betting like crazy now.
 
TimovieMan

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Preflop ������

Absolutely terrible. Just fold and if you really feel the need to play this hand raise to 6bb and fold to the 3bet.
Fold? For a mere 2BB?

I agree that the raise should have been at least 5BB with the limpers, though. Making it 3BB with two limpers in the hand means we have no fold equity, and KTo depends on fold equity.

The 4-bet is the wrong spot (although it probably would be ok without the limpers, and if we knew his 3-bet% and Fold to 4-bet%, but I'd like his 3-bet to be larger since min-3-bets at these stakes are often QQ+/AK). But we can play it postflop like it is just that: QQ+/AK.

Which means bet the turn and shove after he raises.
 
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Jreece18

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3BB is what makes Preflop terrible haha with this many people in you're letting people get in for cheap. You need to increase your bet sizes when there's limpers. Make them pay. 3BB is nothing.

Idm playing this hand preflop with limpers, but are you a winning player? If you're struggling you really need to just tighten up and play in position with good hands. KT in the SB isn't that. I wouldn't mind 4betting if it was just blind v blind and you had history, but here you don't know the player. Pretty dodgy hand to play and the way it's played is far from EV. Youre talking about max value, but it's easy to play this hand when you flop the nut straight. How often is that going to happen?
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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So should make my raise the standard open(3bb) plus 1bb for every limper in hands that I'm going to raise pre?
 
DrazaFFT

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without reading the comments
iso pre way too low, KTo way to weak to iso 2 opp and be oop, when bb 3bets fold, we are too weak even against fish. as played, bet flop for 2/3 for value, bet turn 2/3, if you wanna induce bet flop 1/2 but bet turn 2/3 or even 3/4 as played if checked turn and opp bet raise
 
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