$5 NLHE 6-max: Call river with TPGK?

Pascal-lf · May 31, 2010

$5 NL HE 6-max: Call river with TPGK?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 14/11/68

full tilt poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 729638
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $5.45
UTG: $3.57
MP: $5.03
CO: $5.05
BTN: $14.38
Hero (SB): $11.02

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with Q :heart: K :club:
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.17, Hero calls $0.15, BB calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.51) 3 :spade: 2 :diamond: K :heart: (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, BB folds

Turn: ($1.31) J :heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

River: ($3.71) 8 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.80, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

Looking back at the hand, I'm not too overly keen on the flat call on the SB. I had 111 hands on him for the stats, but his main double up came from someone tilt-shoving 88 into his AA so not seen much post flop play from him. His 3-bet % was 5% so I had him down as a fairly good player, and seemed aggressive. As he seemed aggressive, I decided to let him barrel the turn at me, hoping to see him shut down on the river. Should I think I am beat in this situation or might I be able to catch something like QJ, AQhh, etc?

rssurfer54 · May 31, 2010

I think its important what your image at the table is. If he sees you as a decent player, this could be a bluff. A three barreled bluff to someone oop like this could be pretty effective, if he senses weakness. also, his overbet makes me think it could be a bluff. Not quite sure but thats what I think of t.

Pascal-lf · May 31, 2010

My image is tight aggressive - not had many good hands at that table, playing 16/9 over 245 (I normally play 20/17 or so)

It's been a very fishy table, all of which have been aggro, so I've only got an Afq of 35, but he's seen me make some big calls and attempted floats before, so knows I'm capable of more than just being passive.

brank · Jun 1, 2010

What were his stats for the BU. ie. Is he positionally aware? If he does raise wide on the BU then you have to call this river bet I think, you've made it this far I dont think you can fold now. Hes aggressive enough that he could have complete air here and you beat a lot of hands even if he is kinda tight for 6 max.

As far as the hand was played before the river... you kinda letting him dictate the hand cause your OOP and c/c ing. This is why I might fold pre depending on his BU stats. Either your letting him valuetown himself or hanging himself, its kinda hard to tell.

Pascal-lf · Jun 1, 2010

Seemed to be fairly positionally aware, raising more from button than early or mid but also raising a lot in the blinds so seemed to value them, so to speak.

brank · Jun 1, 2010

brank said:
Either your letting him valuetown you or hanging himself, its kinda hard to tell.

FMP.

brank · Jun 1, 2010

So he was 3 betting from the blinds?

Pascal-lf · Jun 1, 2010

Raising when there were limpers, I think 3-bet was fairly standard (some protecting, some for value)

Stu_Ungar · Jun 1, 2010

Start asking yourself what you beat.

Kings

You lose to Ak,KJ and chop with KQ

So to break even we need him to play this way with KT and K9 and to be ahead we need K8

Thats if we are taking out K2-K7 from his preflop range, if K2 -K7 are in there then we add K2 and K3 to the hands that beat you and so we need him doing this with K8 and K7 oh wait K8 beats you on the riber so K6 and K7

Pairs

We would assume he plays 22-AA

22 33 KK JJ all made sets (JJ stabs at that flop)

So there are 12 combos that beat you

AA? yeah that beats you thats another 6

so what do we need him to play this way to balance out these pairs beating you? well there are 18 combos here so we need 3 pairs to break even.

So QQ TT 99 and 88 puts you ahead, of course if he plays this range then 88 makes a set on the river so we really need him to be playing all pairs 77+ to balance out the sets and AA in his range.

Hands like QT, stab the flop improve on the turn, bluff the river.. sure why not you can take out a couple of pairs and substitute QT in (did you really think he did this with 77 and 99 anyway?

You arent ahead.

Now personally I put him on a hand like AA, Ak or a set maybe KJ but something strong because if he had KT or QQ or TT he has to think that if you have been calling with a hand chances are he is beat, he wont fold out much. At the same time if you have been calling with a weak hand he beats it. So when you check to him on the river why does he bet a poor hand with a K and J on the board? If you have AJ or KQ there is a good chance you call this bet so I put AK at the bottom of his range. He isnt betting because he expects you to fold (I doubt you did) and he isnt betting to try and get a price on a showdown.. if he had any worries about the strength of his hand he could have checked behind on the river.

This is a value bet.

Skaplun · Jun 1, 2010

Stu_Ungar said:
Start asking yourself what you beat.

Kings

You lose to Ak,KJ and chop with KQ

So to break even we need him to play this way with KT and K9 and to be ahead we need K8

Thats if we are taking out K2-K7 from his preflop range, if K2 -K7 are in there then we add K2 and K3 to the hands that beat you and so we need him doing this with K8 and K7 oh wait K8 beats you on the riber so K6 and K7

Pairs

We would assume he plays 22-AA

22 33 KK JJ all made sets (JJ stabs at that flop)

So there are 12 combos that beat you

AA? yeah that beats you thats another 6

so what do we need him to play this way to balance out these pairs beating you? well there are 18 combos here so we need 3 pairs to break even.

So QQ TT 99 and 88 puts you ahead, of course if he plays this range then 88 makes a set on the river so we really need him to be playing all pairs 77+ to balance out the sets and AA in his range.

Hands like QT, stab the flop improve on the turn, bluff the river.. sure why not you can take out a couple of pairs and substitute QT in (did you really think he did this with 77 and 99 anyway?

You arent ahead.

Now personally I put him on a hand like AA, Ak or a set maybe KJ but something strong because if he had KT or QQ or TT he has to think that if you have been calling with a hand chances are he is beat, he wont fold out much. At the same time if you have been calling with a weak hand he beats it. So when you check to him on the river why does he bet a poor hand with a K and J on the board? If you have AJ or KQ there is a good chance you call this bet so I put AK at the bottom of his range. He isnt betting because he expects you to fold (I doubt you did) and he isnt betting to try and get a price on a showdown.. if he had any worries about the strength of his hand he could have checked behind on the river.

This is a value bet.

this is... smart.
I dont necessarily agree but pretty terrfyingly good analysis
only thing I'd add is that KQo EP is not a profitable hand, you'd be better off cutting it from your range.

Stu_Ungar · Jun 1, 2010

Skaplun said:
this is... smart.
I dont necessarily agree but pretty terrfyingly good analysis
only thing I'd add is that KQo EP is not a profitable hand, you'd be better off cutting it from your range.

I might 3bet it but I wouldn't call OOP with a hand like this.

You just build up ranges from combos... We have him playing K7o and no jacks, so take a couple of the King combos we beat that you dont think he plays this way and shift them into the Jacks column.

You get the jist.

brank · Jun 2, 2010

Your hand reading/analysis is dead on as usual Stu.

Im just wondering if your giving a bit too much credit to players being thinking players at 5nl. Thats where I am ATM and I see lots of crazy shit even from 14/11/68's. Hell, thats basically how I play(maybe even a little tighter) and I wouldnt give myself that much credit for that kind of thought process, especially with the 15 seconds they give you.

But you have schooled me in this situation.

If I put my self in Villains shoes Im never betting this river with hands that I dont want calls from after being cold called for two streets.

Pascal-lf · Jun 2, 2010

Stu_Ungar said:
Start asking yourself what you beat.

Kings

You lose to Ak,KJ and chop with KQ

So to break even we need him to play this way with KT and K9 and to be ahead we need K8

Thats if we are taking out K2-K7 from his preflop range, if K2 -K7 are in there then we add K2 and K3 to the hands that beat you and so we need him doing this with K8 and K7 oh wait K8 beats you on the riber so K6 and K7

Pairs

We would assume he plays 22-AA

22 33 KK JJ all made sets (JJ stabs at that flop)

So there are 12 combos that beat you

AA? yeah that beats you thats another 6

so what do we need him to play this way to balance out these pairs beating you? well there are 18 combos here so we need 3 pairs to break even.

So QQ TT 99 and 88 puts you ahead, of course if he plays this range then 88 makes a set on the river so we really need him to be playing all pairs 77+ to balance out the sets and AA in his range.

Hands like QT, stab the flop improve on the turn, bluff the river.. sure why not you can take out a couple of pairs and substitute QT in (did you really think he did this with 77 and 99 anyway?

You arent ahead.

Now personally I put him on a hand like AA, Ak or a set maybe KJ but something strong because if he had KT or QQ or TT he has to think that if you have been calling with a hand chances are he is beat, he wont fold out much. At the same time if you have been calling with a weak hand he beats it. So when you check to him on the river why does he bet a poor hand with a K and J on the board? If you have AJ or KQ there is a good chance you call this bet so I put AK at the bottom of his range. He isnt betting because he expects you to fold (I doubt you did) and he isnt betting to try and get a price on a showdown.. if he had any worries about the strength of his hand he could have checked behind on the river.

This is a value bet.

Cheers for the info Stu, definitely learnt a lot in this post.

Results? Went with my gut and called him down, he flipped A5hh for missed flush and gutshot draws.

Stu_Ungar · Jun 2, 2010

A5s makes sense.

If you think he plays all AXs like this then it makes the call breakeven if you think he only plays A5s like this because of the gunshot then you go behind.

Does he do this with A9s?

Pascal-lf · Jun 2, 2010

I think it's a fairly standard c-bet by him on the flop - we've both checked.

The turn picks up his main draw, but wouldn't really improve his hand at all unless he was playing JJ, KJ, J2 or J3, which is a fairly narrow range.

On the river all the draws miss (flush/straight if he had had 54 and been betting to protect) and his bet sizing changes, which to me is a small signal of a busted draw.

That was how I read it at least. At these stakes I think they would play a gutshot draw as an additional draw, similarly to a OESD, as they don't really consider odds most of the time and two draws is better than one, no?

Stu_Ungar · Jun 2, 2010

You think he bets all his missed draws after being called twice on a board with K on the flop and a second BW card on the turn?

This is why I keep saying its a bad board to make a bluff.

If you are holding A9s and have been called twice on that board, how often do you think a 3rd barbell actually works?

I think he checks back some of his draws on the turn and stabs the river as a bluff if you check to him.

I dont think he bets 100% of his draws on the turn and I dont think he bets 100% of his missed draws on the river if he bets the turn.

I think the reason he bets the river as a bluff is because he bet the 2 previous streets and decided to sell AK. If he had A9s or something like that I think you start seeing the turn checked back.

Pascal-lf · Jun 2, 2010

I don't think he bets 100% of them either, but he did that time.

Stu_Ungar · Jun 2, 2010

Pascal LeFiscal said:
I don't think he bets 100% of them either, but he did that time.

Forget the river for a minute.

Does he bet A9s on the turn or does he check it back?

Does he bet A5s on the turn because of the added GS?

The point is that he isnt betting the turn with 100% of his draws so you cant count every single hand that missed as a hand he could be betting on the river.

So if we say OK he fires A5 for 3 streets and maybe a couple more missed draws, we still dont pick up enough combos for you to be ahead.

F Paulsson · Jun 2, 2010

I like Stu's analysis. There are two things I'd like to add to it though:

1. Very broadly speaking, not all hands that beat us take this line. The big bet on the river is not going to be AK often, because people don't tend to bet that big when they're worried about being beat. And people worry about being beat. Similarly, but very different at the same time, most people don't overbet the nuts on the river like this because they're worried about not getting paid off. These two statements aren't mutually exclusive; they just point out that most people don't make really big bets on the river with real hands.

2. There's always going to be the "freak" factor. Some non-zero percentage of the time, our opponent is going to be showing up with a really weird hand that will surprise us. For purely combinatorical reasons, this hand is almost always a bluff (because there are so many more ways to have air than there is to have a big, but weird, hand, e.g. 88 in this hand).

That said, he needs to be bluffing more than ~35% of the time for you to make this call. I say "bluffing" because there is almost no chance at all that he is valuebetting a worse hand than what you have. While I think AK is a bit unlikely given the action, KT is vastly more so. At midstakes, you can see some good regulars taking this line with KT because they merge their ranges by valuebetting KT here (thus balancing their air and monsters so that people can't bluffcatch with AJ or whatever, but merging is a topic for another day), but here, I seriously doubt it.

So you're looking at a polarized range. From what we know about him, I think his big hands outnumber his bluffs by more than 2:1, so I muck. You should probably consider folding the turn, even, against this guy. Already there, his range probably beats yours and you're pretty often drawing to 5 outs or less. Calling the turn is an OK play if he doesn't valuebet the river lightly, because you need to get a "free" showdown pretty often to make the turn call. Basically, you need him to check behind his A-high hands on the river. If we want to be results-oriented about this hand, then what we learn is that he doesn't - he bluffs his A-high hands on the river. Make a note on that, because that's pretty important.

In fact, I'll take it one step further: The pivotal decision in this hand is on the turn, not the river. The turn call needs to have attached to it a decision on what to do versus a river bet. As in, when you call the turn, you do it because "he will triple barrel bluff me often enough to call down, so I'm calling turn and river, if it comes to that" or "he will bet a lot of his draws on the turn again but shut down on the river, so I'm calling once." If you see what I mean.

From the look of it, your thought process was something similar to the latter above. But then you went ahead and called the river anyway (and "was right" or "got lucky" depending on how you look at it), and I consider that a leak. I should know; I have the same leak. I make a bet with the intention of bet/folding but then when they shove I somehow manage to talk myself into calling anyway, and I know I shouldn't. It's just... It's just... "Oh, just one more call and then I'll find out."

So yeah, plan the river play on the turn.

Pascal-lf · Jun 2, 2010

Forgetting the river.

Given his aggro image and my passive checking back, I think he'll bet any strong draws hoping to push me off the pot without having to hit. What is a strong draw in his eyes I couldn't answer, but obviously a flush draw and a GS straight was enough. Just the flush draw, on the hand, I'm not sure.

I'm not asking for a steadfast rule - am I ahead on this board with this hand against an aggro opponent? Thank you for giving me something to think about, but I think the call in this situation, given how he'd played previous hands, my image (especially with the c/c) and his bet sizing was an OK call, after looking it over.

I definitely appreciate what you are saying; I wouldn't expect him to fire 2 barrels with many hands, as checking back with position puts him in a strong place. But if he fires he shows strength and makes it hard for me to call, even when the draw misses, which he definitely did - I came very close to folding, it was hardly snappy.

Hope my post makes sense - I do agree with you that he doesn't make this kinda play with every one of his draws.

Pascal-lf · Jun 2, 2010

F Paulsson said:
I like Stu's analysis. There are two things I'd like to add to it though:

1. Very broadly speaking, not all hands that beat us take this line. The big bet on the river is not going to be AK often, because people don't tend to bet that big when they're worried about being beat. And people worry about being beat. Similarly, but very different at the same time, most people don't overbet the nuts on the river like this because they're worried about not getting paid off. These two statements aren't mutually exclusive; they just point out that most people don't make really big bets on the river with real hands.

2. There's always going to be the "freak" factor. Some non-zero percentage of the time, our opponent is going to be showing up with a really weird hand that will surprise us. For purely combinatorical reasons, this hand is almost always a bluff (because there are so many more ways to have air than there is to have a big, but weird, hand, e.g. 88 in this hand).

That said, he needs to be bluffing more than ~35% of the time for you to make this call. I say "bluffing" because there is almost no chance at all that he is valuebetting a worse hand than what you have. While I think AK is a bit unlikely given the action, KT is vastly more so. At midstakes, you can see some good regulars taking this line with KT because they merge their ranges by valuebetting KT here (thus balancing their air and monsters so that people can't bluffcatch with AJ or whatever, but merging is a topic for another day), but here, I seriously doubt it.

So you're looking at a polarized range. From what we know about him, I think his big hands outnumber his bluffs by more than 2:1, so I muck. You should probably consider folding the turn, even, against this guy. Already there, his range probably beats yours and you're pretty often drawing to 5 outs or less. Calling the turn is an OK play if he doesn't valuebet the river lightly, because you need to get a "free" showdown pretty often to make the turn call. Basically, you need him to check behind his A-high hands on the river. If we want to be results-oriented about this hand, then what we learn is that he doesn't - he bluffs his A-high hands on the river. Make a note on that, because that's pretty important.

In fact, I'll take it one step further: The pivotal decision in this hand is on the turn, not the river. The turn call needs to have attached to it a decision on what to do versus a river bet. As in, when you call the turn, you do it because "he will triple barrel bluff me often enough to call down, so I'm calling turn and river, if it comes to that" or "he will bet a lot of his draws on the turn again but shut down on the river, so I'm calling once." If you see what I mean.

From the look of it, your thought process was something similar to the latter above. But then you went ahead and called the river anyway (and "was right" or "got lucky" depending on how you look at it), and I consider that a leak. I should know; I have the same leak. I make a bet with the intention of bet/folding but then when they shove I somehow manage to talk myself into calling anyway, and I know I shouldn't. It's just... It's just... "Oh, just one more call and then I'll find out."

So yeah, plan the river play on the turn.

Great post, cheers

Stu_Ungar · Jun 2, 2010

F Paulsson said:
In fact, I'll take it one step further: The pivotal decision in this hand is on the turn, not the river. The turn call needs to have attached to it a decision on what to do versus a river bet. As in, when you call the turn, you do it because "he will triple barrel bluff me often enough to call down, so I'm calling turn and river, if it comes to that" or "he will bet a lot of his draws on the turn again but shut down on the river, so I'm calling once." If you see what I mean.

This is it.

When he bets the turn you have to think that if he bets the river you are usually against a range that beats you.

He could be so extremely aggressive that he often barrels the river with missed draws and complete bluffs but if he is this aggressive he is not the norm, and he is not a bit aggro be is extremely aggro.. 14/11 types dont tend to be this aggressive.. he is trying to play well. Now if he were an aggro 35/23 type id put a lot more missed draws and bluffs in his river range.

THe other thing I was going to mention is that people often over estimate the number of missed draws on a board.

When a player isnt playing completely crazy and there is a high card on the flop (especially an ace or king) there are fewer draws than you might think and more TPGK and set type hands.

People always assume that when there is a possible draw out there that their opponent is most likely on the draw when in fact its usually about even or slightly less likely that they are on a TPGK hand than a draw.

i.e. on that board there are 13 Axs combos - the 2 (AJs and Aks) because the J and K are out there.. however AK and AA gives 14 combos

So just looking at all the Ax combos he could hold and comparing that to AK and AA means TPTK or an overpair is more likely than the Axs draw.

The K and J are on the board so we can take out all of the Kxs and Jxs hands How many Qxs hands do you give him?

But subconsciously when a FD is possible people weight his range too much towards FDs and away form TPTK and Overpairs.

Pascal-lf · Jun 2, 2010

Cheers for the insight guys, really helpful. Learnt a lot.

c9h13no3 · Jun 2, 2010

Good thread. Nice discussion guys.

Pascal-lf · Jun 2, 2010

Similar hand came up today, but with slightly smaller pots and me having air (but good air)

Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 734444
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $5.00
SB: $5.03
Hero (BB): $5.74
UTG: $6.02
MP: $4.14
CO: $5.16

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with A :spade: Q :heart:
2 folds, CO calls $0.05, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.17, CO calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.36) 4 :heart: K :spade: 7 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($0.36) 4 :spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

River: ($0.86) 9 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

Decided on the turn that given the little I had seen of his play he would have bet the flop if he had hit, so calling the river was snappy when the non-scary 9 hit.

The results:

Final Pot: $2.26
Hero shows A :spade: Q :heart: (a pair of Fours)
CO shows A :club: 5 :diamond: (a pair of Fours)
Hero wins $2.11
(Rake: $0.15)

Cheers for the help guys

$5 NLHE 6-max: Call river with TPGK?

Pascal-lf

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rssurfer54

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brank

Back in!

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Skaplun

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Is drawing with AK

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