$5 NLHE 6-max: Bluff catcher vs strong line

B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Villain is most likely a agro fish, AF3 with VPIP 35 gives me that impression. His limp call mostly means he has a suited anything or small pair with occasional Ax and some unsuited broadways
OTR he betting for value gives combos {quads 1, 22 sets 3, K9 full house 6, A9 full 4} = 14 to make the call profitable he needs to be bluffing 7 combos. Reason I think call is ok:
1. Table image aggressive/spazzy fish
2. He limp called giving him lots of draws
3. His turn raise size is polarizing and also cutting some of the 14 combos down
4. OTR he did not go all in, cutting probability him having nuts further down from 14 combos
5. I chop all the Ax he might be betting
What u say, fold or call river? I do fold 92% normally here, but there was some reason I felt calling, did his style just get to my head?



PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 251.6 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 6)
Hero (SB): 103.6 BB
BB: 56.4 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.45, PFR: 13.59, 3Bet Preflop: 2.27, Hands: 108)
MP: 124.8 BB (VPIP: 34.21, PFR: 13.16, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 39)
CO: 84.8 BB (VPIP: 2.86, PFR: 2.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A 7

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4.4 BB, fold, MP calls 3.4 BB

Flop: (9.8 BB, 2 players) K 2 9
Hero bets 6 BB, MP calls 6 BB

Turn: (21.8 BB, 2 players) A
Hero bets 11.6 BB, MP raises to 23.2 BB, Hero calls 11.6 BB

River: (68.2 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, MP bets 65.4 BB, Hero calls 65.4 BB
 
Last edited:
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 16, 2016
Total posts
2,264
Chips
0
AF is pretty meaningless after 39 hands.

He could be doing this with Ad-Xd too, all of which you chop with on this river. I don't mind a call, but you're chopping at best, though.

The thing is, if you're folding this river, you should've folded the turn.
 
N

nkat

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 31, 2016
Total posts
155
Chips
0
yeah this is ok.. it is a strong line, but i have seen it taken as a bluff too... reads on vil. limp/calling range will be helpful. K9o may not even be in there.. may raise A9 etc.

I doubt Ax is played like this.. maybe 5%
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Haha, I was waiting you guys to crucify me with this hand =)

AF number is meaningless, I agree, however we can use it to say that probability villain is a passive caller fish is small, and I do only have 3 categories for fish: 1. passive 2. whale 3. spazzy

Yeah, K9o shouldn’t be there that many times, hmm, but his PFR is tight so not sure we can discount A9. So together with points 3. and 4. we semi randomly leave him with 10 combos value hands, and 2 combos Ax hands.

All this and he needs to be bluffing 4 combos, reasonable, but maybe it’s quite close of breakeven whatever the hero does. If only one Ax, still needs 4 combos. When 6 combos Ax, only 2 bluffs are needed for +EV.
 
Last edited:
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2013
Total posts
5,781
Chips
0
fold turn.. usually check raises on turn are not bluffs and says he can beat Ax easy.
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
He is giving me 17% on turn, can I really fold anything?
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
He had J8dd (from memory).
 
John A

John A

Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2012
Total posts
6,492
Awards
3
Chips
37
He's not really repping much other than limp/called 22/K9. You have to go with your read in these spots. It's probably pretty close either way, but his line does look suspect of course.
 
Top