$5 NLHE 6-max: bluff analysis

villian 28/24/11 3b over about 200 hands

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: $5.14
Hero (CO): $5.72
BTN: $13.33
SB: $5.00
BB: $5.58

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has Q:heart: T:heart:

fold, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN raises to $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.20, BTN calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.47, 2 players) 9:club: 4:heart: 7:diamond:
Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.97, 2 players) A:spade:
Hero bets $2.90


So this guy had been 3betting me like crazy so I basically figured it was time for a 4b bluff, when he calls I put him on KQs, JA+ and 9s,10s,Js

On the flop I cbet about half pot, as he is folding over 2/3 of his range, as i doubt he is capable of floating there with AK kinda hands. when he calls I basically put him on 9s, 10s and Js, so when the A hits on the turn I figure he is going to fold 10s and Js and obv call 9s. so I bet effectively all in as I think it looks stronger, as under half pot to him will look super weak imo, and a shove would do fine but as I have no value here if he shoves over the top I can save a few bb by folding. (he is never bluffing if he shoves)

Basically what I was wondering is if I have misevaluated the situation here or if it was played fine.

It'd be nice to know what kind of range he is 3-betting to know how often he has Ax here but in general, looks great.

only problem is we have blockers to the range we're hoping he can fold here.

I should have added his FTCB is about 70%, which imo takes out alot of Ax hands because he is playing basically fit or fold post flop. The only blocker we have is the J, as although SOMETIMES he will float AK/AQ/AJ/KQ i think its pretty rare, more of my reasoning is he has played really straight forward post flop and a good percentage of the time this kind of player will just raise his set on the flop, which reduces the amount of 9s in his range.

QT is a good hand to bluff with because it has blockers for the range people normally flat 3-/4-bets with, like TT-QQ, AQ. Of course he'll probably just 5-bet shove QQ+/AK quite a bit, which is good because it will be hard for him to have an Ace unless he's 3-bet/calling a lot of suited Ax.

Raising a set on this flop with these stacks is probably bad.

I agree that its probably bad but I had a note from the first sesh i played with him (i presume as it was like 40 hands) that donked and then 3b shoved a set in a 3b pot on the flop (i cant exactly remember the flop but it was something like 752, 893 or something just low cards basically)

This actually looks like spew to me, shouldnt our 4bet range be polarized against this guy? 4betting a middle hand like QTs obv doesn't fall in that range. I'm much happier doing this with SCs, Axs and nut hands. Also what range are you putting him on when the flop hits? I don't think you'll get him to fold like ever here. I'd prob c/f but mostly I'd switch seats or leave the table

No, I think I explained a bit why QTs is good to bluff with but also it's one of the better hands we can't call with, so that makes it a good hand to 4-bet.

Then what happens when you hit a q?

you bet.

And if he calls/shoves youre toast like 99% of the time

so you can fold. people shoving on Q-high flops in 4-bet pots is going to be pretty rare. just play your SPR though.

Aren't we supposed to stack off with TP given the supposed spr?

it depends, usually people aren't going to shove KQ here so I think you'd have to re-evaluate in the face of a raise.

the important thing is playing against his range, which is fairly narrow/face-up/can't take a lot of heat.

in general I think continuing on this bluff on a turn blank is fairly bad but we got bailed out by the deck and took advantage of it.

Against this particular guy who plays extremely straight forward post flop if he shoves a Q high board we are always behind, in fact I have checked it down with him before (in normal pots) quite alot, he is actually very fit/fold player.. I was basically treating this like 67s or something if the flop was Q52 I would have bet 1 street (folds AK AJ all lower pockets imo) and if he calls/shoves he has KQ/AQ 99% of the time (this player)

To add to that I also think the 4b is instantly +ev preflop as he has folded to a 4bet before by me, and I think he is 3betting me between 15 and 20% of his hands here, which most he will fold to the 4bet.

IW didn't mention that this guy's fold to cbet % was like 70%

i dont like it but im a nit

The four-bet seems bad to me. He's a somewhat laggy player who's at 5nl. He's not there to fold, and since he has the button, he's going to talk himself into a call a lot here.

We're going to end up in lots of pots like this one by four betting here.

I would say this guy was on average 3betting me 20% here (obv sample size so he could have just had hands alot but the feel (i hate when people say that lol) was he was 3betting me damn wide and anywhere between 15 and 25% i would say is reasonable, i highly doubt he isnt immediately folding about 70% of his range which makes the 4b profitable pre?

If he's 3betting you that freq. and causing you to spew (this is spew) it's time to change tables.

We should never 4-bet bluff?

baudib1 said:

We should never 4-bet bluff?

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The 4bet is fine. He said he expects him to fold enough for it to be immediately profitable. It's the rest of the hand that's spew.

OK. I would c/f most turn cards other than this one.

Yeah I was planning on c/f the turn but I dont understand how i cannot barrel that ace.. His FTcb was like 70% which is pretty straightforward fit/fold poker, and in 4b pots that shouldnt change imo..

baudib1 said:

OK. I would c/f most turn cards other than this one.

Click to expand...

If we had a real hand, any real hand, wouldn't we shove the turn rather than leaving ~.40 behind? I can see shoving any heart/J/8 but I really don't like it on a non heart Ace and I hate it when we leave a few pennies behind because we're planning to fold to a shove and save a few bbs.