$5 NLHE 6-max: Bet sizing with TPTK in 3bet pot

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vengol

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 45/25/1

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

MP: $9.57
Hero (CO): $5.33
BTN: $5.63
SB: $5.00
BB: $5.00
UTG: $4.11

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A Q

UTG raises to $0.15, fold, Hero raises to $0.45, fold, SB calls $0.43, fold, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.40, 3 players) 6 Q 3
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.80, fold, UTG calls $0.80

Turn: ($3.00, 2 players) 8
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.88, ...

Both villains involved here are quite loose and passive:
SB: 33/19/1 with a 50% FFCB
UTG: 45/25/1 with a 13% fold to 3bet and 26% FFCB

I think the flop is pretty straightforward. When we reach the turn, though, the flush fills, and villain has less than a pot-sized bet left behind. I think that as played, the effective shove makes our hand look far too strong, and we're probably only ever getting called by flushes (and maybe sets).

So, I'm wondering what line to take here to maximise value. Perhaps it would be better to check the turn and get it in on the river? Bet the flop larger and shove the turn? Or even bet the turn small (say 1/3 pot) and bet the rest on the river?
 
Alucard

Alucard

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your bet on turn is quite pot committingIt makes little sense to me as better would /call/shove here. All the FDs have gotten there. Might have some slow played sets This is a small bet for me on turn to make it enough to GII on river
 
Luvart

Luvart

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vs a villain with these stats you don't have a clue what he might hold.

With your blocker for the flush, you are some kind safe that he doesn't have a FD, but as I wrote above we can't be 100% sure. In 3bet pots I go for a 50-53% of the pot bet on the flop+turn. If he calls you on the turn, then you need to proceed with caution on the river.
 
John A

John A

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your bet on turn is quite pot committingIt makes little sense to me as better would /call/shove here. All the FDs have gotten there. Might have some slow played sets This is a small bet for me on turn to make it enough to GII on river

I think you missed the stack sizes. There's really nothing OP could bet fold really. I mean maybe .30 or something. I'm too lazy to do the math.

But I would bet / call smaller any ways. Maybe the fish makes a mistake w/ 6x or something. Making that size bet you're only getting some weaker Q's to call and better hands.
 
Q

QA77

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I don’t like betting that big on the turn. Checking is what I would prefer. Betting 1/3 pot isn’t bad either.
 
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MattJM68

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 45/25/1

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

MP: $9.57
Hero (CO): $5.33
BTN: $5.63
SB: $5.00
BB: $5.00
UTG: $4.11

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A[emoji815] Q[emoji814]

UTG raises to $0.15, fold, Hero raises to $0.45, fold, SB calls $0.43, fold, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.40, 3 players) 6[emoji815] Q[emoji812] 3[emoji815]
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.80, fold, UTG calls $0.80

Turn: ($3.00, 2 players) 8[emoji815]
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.88, ...

Both villains involved here are quite loose and passive:
SB: 33/19/1 with a 50% FFCB
UTG: 45/25/1 with a 13% fold to 3bet and 26% FFCB

I think the flop is pretty straightforward. When we reach the turn, though, the flush fills, and villain has less than a pot-sized bet left behind. I think that as played, the effective shove makes our hand look far too strong, and we're probably only ever getting called by flushes (and maybe sets).

So, I'm wondering what line to take here to maximise value. Perhaps it would be better to check the turn and get it in on the river? Bet the flop larger and shove the turn? Or even bet the turn small (say 1/3 pot) and bet the rest on the river?
I don't know how much the UTG pays attention to position, but I think his call preflop is pretty polarizing. I don't give him credit for premium hands [JJ+ AQ+ ]. Therefore his calling range is 55-TT, as well as some suited broadways KQs, KJs, QJs, JTs AJs ATs.

So on the flop, he is gunna call with KQ, QJ 66-TT [Maybe Raise] So we are really only worried about a set of 6's, and also all his diamond draws.

I'd maybe go bigger on the flop, make it $1-$1.10 to really charge his draws, and set up a turn shove.

As played, the shove seems super strong, (KK+) and I'm not sure how often you get called by worse Q's compared to how often he has flushes and 666.

Its definitely not a particularly bad play, but it may force him to fold too much, especially when there are not many bad rivers for you, maybe a K??

A diamond, although it kills your action, gives you the nuts, and by giving him a cheaper turn, you may get some calls from 88-TT and can put the rest in on a lot of rivers safely.
 
Bozovicdj

Bozovicdj

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I like the analysis above, would only add that holding Ad is important here as you block a lot of flush draws that raise UTG and call a re-raise pre-flop. Considering that utg+1 rarely folds to aggression pre flop and c-betting on the flop, means he has a wide range of hands, I would check back this turn for a bit of a pot control, not to mention that if villain has KQ, JQ with a diamond, he might be inclined to value it big if another diamond comes, or bluff if it doesn't. In any case, if villain checks on the river as well, then he probably gave up on the hand already on the turn and will not call the river raise, and most likely wouldn't call the turn bet. If you do raise like this on the turn, and get called, you are probably beat, if you bet smaller and get shoved, I'd say you would pretty much need to call but would still probably be beat.
IMO, best option here is check turn, raise the river
 
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vengol

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Fwiw, I think villain can reach the turn with a good few more Qx hands (certainly QT, maybe even as far as Q9-Q7s). I suppose that doesn't change things too much though.

Thanks for the responses, much appreciated.
 
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