$5 NLHE 6-max: To Bet River Or Not That Is The Question

T

TorreyB

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/13/5.1

Assuming I had bet the flop and not played this hand so passively, do you see textures like this profitable to bet the river against a TAG, and if so, how much?

poker stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
MP: $4.32
CO: $12.50
Hero (BTN): $6.50
SB: $5.16
BB: $5.00
UTG: $5.88
Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with 7 8
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.32) 9 T 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($0.32) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.15, BB calls $0.15
River: ($0.62) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
 
rssurfer54

rssurfer54

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if you had bet the flop? the whole hand could (would) have been different. i dont understand the question.

As is why would you bet the river?
 
T

TorreyB

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To clarify the question a little more...with a texture such as this where you know the villain doesn't really have anything by the river, but has the high card to take the pot if you checked. Would it ever make sense and be profitable to take a stab on the river or just take the loss due to playing a weak betting line?
 
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bgomez89

bgomez89

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Bet flop. We have a pair+oesd and we should bet it. I probably check the river because I don't bet/ fold river
 
C

ComplexPlaya

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You can bet like $0.25 on the river to fold out J high, Q high, K high. A high is inclined to call there I think. It should be profitable.

Definitely cbet the flop with your equity to pick up the dead money. Your river bet will make more sense to villain as well.
 
REI53

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You can bet like $0.25 on the river to fold out J high, Q high, K high. A high is inclined to call there I think. It should be profitable.

Definitely cbet the flop with your equity to pick up the dead money. Your river bet will make more sense to villain as well.

I think Kx will call as well...
+1 Cbet flop.
 
T

TorreyB

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Here's the thought process I used on this hand against the reg villain.

Preflop
1) He's either calling with a pocket pair, broadway, or flatted with a monster since he knows my range can be pretty wide on the button.

Flop
2) There's tons of combos of broadway that could reraise me if I bet the flop, and potentially win with a higher straight draw.

Turn
3) Villain's check/call means there is no pocket pair, monster, and the cards he's holding are broadway. Most likely being AJ or KQ, and could not be QJ due to fact he would have bet by now.

River
4) Board paired the 9 which throws out my pair of 7's, giving the villain the win if I check due to high card.

I thought to check the river since there is a big chance he could call me just scoring him a bigger pot due to the weak betting line, and later in review started to wonder if that paired 9 would have got him to fold if I had bet the river?
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Here's the thought process I used on this hand against the reg villain.

Preflop
1) He's either calling with a pocket pair, broadway, or flatted with a monster since he knows my range can be pretty wide on the button.

Flop
2) There's tons of combos of broadway that could reraise me if I bet the flop, and potentially win with a higher straight draw.

Turn
3) Villain's check/call means there is no pocket pair, monster, and the cards he's holding are broadway. Most likely being AJ or KQ, and could not be QJ due to fact he would have bet by now.


River
4) Board paired the 9 which throws out my pair of 7's, giving the villain the win if I check due to high card.

I thought to check the river since there is a big chance he could call me just scoring him a bigger pot due to the weak betting line, and later in review started to wonder if that paired 9 would have got him to fold if I had bet the river?

2) Granted they probably raise, but you can call still being ahead of his range. He's unlikely to double barrel when he misses so take it from there and value bet him.

3) If you think that's his range why not value bet the turn?

4) This is a great spot to hero call since you were so passive. If the range you gave him is correct you should c/f
 
Sysvr4

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I thought to check the river since there is a big chance he could call me just scoring him a bigger pot due to the weak betting line, and later in review started to wonder if that paired 9 would have got him to fold if I had bet the river?

The problem with this reasoning, as I see it, is that you're not telling a congruent story. What hand are you raising with preflop with a 9 that you're not also betting the flop with in position? Granted the level of thinking at this level with most opponents probably isn't sufficiently deep for the reverse story bluff analysis, but it's something you should be thinking about when you're going to attempt a bluff like this.

The line you've played looks a lot more like 22-66 than anything else.
 
bgomez89

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Bet flop. We have a pair+oesd and we should bet it. I probably check the river because I don't bet/ fold river

wow im sorry this is a horrible answer. I was using my phone and it was hard for me to type/delete so here:

I really want to bet this flop because of our draw/pair combo. If he calls, sure the flop hits his range but we have a potentially big hand. Also, he doesn't just call us with hands that have us beat, he could call us with overs too.

Turn bet is kinda weird. I would be a lot more because he'll call you with a lot more because you're not repping anything but a steal imo. With this huge draw im going to bet like .25

On the river i think im alright with bet/folding. He probably doesn't have a T because he would've bet or raised the turn(cause of the draws). He might not have a 9 because he probably wouldve bet the turn since you obviously don't have a ten or an overpair(since each of those would probably have bet the flop). River is kind of a good card because most(if not all) his pairs are counterfitted and he probably isn't calling a bet with Q or K high.

So in the end i'd probably bet a good amount like .50 or .55 to bluff. He could make this call with an ace but oh well
 
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