$5 NLHE 6-max: AQs vs LP reg

W

WiZZiM

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No solid reads on this guy, no idea if he's an actual winning player or not, but i assume he is a somewhat regular as he's playing multiple tables. So I'm guessing most players range on average would be pretty wide, I hadn't been opening terribly wide, but people think the button gives them a license to make silly calls so i'm assuming again that he is probably calling here to use position against me.

Anyways, flop doesn't bother me too much, i'm ahead of most of his range that isn't a pair, and pairs likely raise this flop too a decent % of the time. So when he calls i feel like he is floating me a lot with whatever random junk he has, or he's playing really weak with some sort of pocket 6 type hand or perhaps he still even has overpairs in his range that are playing kind of weak/trappy.

So the decision comes to the turn, i think i still have the best hand so should i just be betting the turn as well? I went for a check/raise as i wanted the value from the floats he is likely trying to pull here, and it also looks about as strong as i can possibly make it.
Since i'm mainly a tournament player, my raise sizes are usually on the small side, so what would be a decent size to raise here (assuming we actually want to c/r in this spot)

Thoughts would be appreciated (i know i'm getting a little FPS happy here, but i figure i may as well post my thought process so you guys can pick holes in it :D)


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($100)
SB ($52.10)
BB ($36.80)
Hero (UTG) ($85.50)
MP ($50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q
diamond.gif
, A
diamond.gif

Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, Button calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 9
heart.gif
, 9
diamond.gif
, 2
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, Button calls $2.25

Turn: ($8.25) 6
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $5.50, Hero ???
 
LuckyChippy

LuckyChippy

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I like the check to induce on the turn as his range is almost entirely hands that are floating and will be betting the turn to get folds. I think his range is split about 60/40 between unpaired hands and pairs and I think ch/calling puts us in some tricky spots on the river so I just make it $15, expect him to fold more than he calls.

When he does call it's pretty certain he has a pair of some kind most likely 88-77, 55-33 and we can value bet pretty big if we hit, ch/fold if we don't. I don't think we can bluff river should he call as bet, ch/r is just a retarded line with a 9.
 
Sysvr4

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Sorry, a C/R does sound like FPS to me. What worse hands is he calling a UTG raise with, barring some read on you that you fold OOP too much.

Also, I can't see him ever calling with worse and rarely folding better here, so I default towards the check/fold without reads.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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1) C-bet smaller. Half pot, since you're going to get floated a ton and you're planning to barrel a lot.
2) X/F turn. "No solid reads on this guy" means fold. X/C would be the other line I like, but readless I'm folding. Plus there are way more nines in his range than yours.
 
bgomez89

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C9 what are you thinking he floats us with on the flop? if he floats us with overcards, small pairs and backdoor draws, shouldn't we bet more on the flop to get more value in a way?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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C9 what are you thinking he floats us with on the flop? if he floats us with overcards, small pairs and backdoor draws, shouldn't we bet more on the flop to get more value in a way?
When you're talking about value here, you're really talking about *showdown* value. Getting to showdown isn't really part of my plan this early in the hand OOP. Sure we have showdown value, but to get to showdown we pretty much have to turn our hand face up in a spot like this.

After you get some reads on your opponent, you can start doing creative stuff like check/calling (or check/raising) the turn if he's going to bluff that much. Or you could overbet the flop if you think he'll fold anything worse than 88. But my default line is to just c-bet small to ensure profitability and keep the pot small so my implied odds are still good for my backdoor draws.
 
bgomez89

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Actually i don't even want to go to showdown at that point in the hand and am just hoping to take it down on the turn by barreling overcards and cards that give me a FD. If I barrel any overcard he probably folds his smaller pairs and if i barrel any card that gives me a FD and he calls then I just pray for my flush and x/f river if I dont hit.

That being said, if that's my plan then shouldn't I build the pot on the flop so I can have more maniez when I either take it down on the turn or hit a flush or a A/Q?
 
_dogmeat

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Very tricky spot indeed. What's his range for flatting a UTG raise from LP?

probably any pair up to QQ, so 22-JJ
most suited connectors: 45s-KQs
most broadways:KJo+, QJo+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs
most suited aces:A2s-AQs

vs that range on the flop we have:
Board: 9h 9d 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.681% 40.16% 02.52% 61235 3836.50 { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 57.319% 54.80% 02.52% 83552 3836.50 { AdQd }

So a little bit over 50%. On the turn his range doesn't change much, since he's floating with any pair, any overcards, any suited cards and obviously he's calling with a 9. So only a tiny fraction of his range folds on the flop, leaving us with a very tough decision on the turn.

Why cbet that flop at all? Since the cbet doesn't change anything and all we're doing is pouring money with a marginal hand at best, isn't this a good spot to just check? Is it because we're out of position and we don't want to give up the initiative?

IMO a big part of his betting range on the turn consists of hands that are beating us, mainly medium pairs. So this is a good spot to c/f readless. If you call and the turn is a blank, you decide to check and he fires again, then what do you do? And the turn will be a blank more often than not and we'll end up with just A-Q high.

Check/raising this turn is very bad, imo, since we're only getting called by hands that are beating us by a mile.
 
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WiZZiM

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Makes sense guys thanks.

In tournaments, i usually make a heap of assumptions about players, but in cash i guess that differs in the fact that we have so much more time to work people out. So, taking standard lines against unknowns makes a lot of sense, otherwise we could be outthinking ourselves and making bad plays, using it in the wrong situations.

My standard here against unknowns would be to bet flop, check/call turn, the re-evaluate the river. what do you think about that line?

FWIW i check/raised the turn, then shutdown on the river, he showed up with K9.
 
Deco

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Seeing as villain is an unknown I just c-bet flop and C/F turn. Sure we could be getting exploited by floats but without reads on villains range preflop, his liklihood to float and the possibility he will doible barrel his floats we shouldn't be getting into guessing games OOP.

C/F>C/C>C/R

Don't get fancy vs unknowns. Play simply and stop worrying about getting exploited.
 
ChuckTs

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1) C-bet smaller. Half pot, since you're going to get floated a ton and you're planning to barrel a lot.

If we're barreling a lot, ie expecting to get lots of folds on the turn, what's the purpose of cbetting the flop smaller?
 
c9h13no3

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If we're barreling a lot, ie expecting to get lots of folds on the turn, what's the purpose of cbetting the flop smaller?
6 days later....

I c-bet the flop smaller because:

1) I think we're not getting a ton of folds, and I think villain's calling range is inelastic. Smaller bet = more profitz.

2) We have some draws, and a smaller bet gives us more implied odds on our draw. I'd prefer to have a ton of money behind if the turn is the 4.

3) Even if we're planning to barrel the turn a lot, I'm not sure that our fold equity + our draw makes us more likely to win the money back that we put in the pot on the flop than our opponent. So wouldn't shoveling money in here be -EV?

Also, I wouldn't expect our opponent to fold the turn more than like 50% of the time. So I'm putting in smaller bets on whats likely to be a thinner spot later in the hand. Not sure if that makes any sense, but that was the logic I used.
 
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