$5 NLHE 6-max: Allin bluffing in river with TPGK...

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bondgaurav21

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PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 107.4 BB
BTN: 192.6 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 13)
SB: 101.8 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 16)
BB: 126.6 BB (VPIP: 54.55, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 27.78, PFR: 27.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
MP: 56.2 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q:club: J:club:

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) 8:spade: Q:spade: 4:club:
SB checks, BB bets 3 BB, UTG calls 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold

Turn: (21 BB, 3 players) 4:heart:
BB checks, UTG bets 11 BB, Hero calls 11 BB, fold

River: (43 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:
UTG bets 14 BB, Hero raises to 90.4 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 68 BB

I took this line due to small bet sizing perform by my opponent in river and he also has WTSD: 20%.

I am trying to represent flush here but can you tell me that am i representing the flush or my play in river is right or not here?

Ya I got a fold here but if I am going to perform this kind of play 1000 times in future, then is it profitable in long term?
 
DrazaFFT

DrazaFFT

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Well in general im not a fan of these kinda plays simply cuz average players at these stakes dont give credit to flushes. in this case he called flop even that he was PFR, after BB gave up turn he bet 1/2 after he got called he bet 1/3, making it smaller and smaller usually mean weak hand and im OK with the bet tho im in doubt are we folding anything stronger than our TP? TPTK most likely wont fold, KQ wont fold also trips even less likely, if we are folding only worse hands than our bet as bluff wont make much sense cuz we only make weaker hand to fold, smaller raise might bring in weaker Q or 8x to call

in general i wont fall in love with this move, at a first glance it doesnt seem profitable long term, but we could try to do some kind of calculation to see...
 
TimovieMan

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I took this line due to small bet sizing perform by my opponent in river and he also has WTSD: 20%.
Sample size of 19 hands where he VPIP'd 5. So he's showndown just once in exactly 5 times.
That doesn't mean anything.


I also think that you're rarely folding anything that beats you, and never get called by anything worse, so I don't think the river shove is going to be +EV.
That said, I generally dislike turning made hands into bluffs in the first place. I call this river, expecting to win a good deal of the time anyway.
 
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bondgaurav21

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Sample size of 19 hands where he VPIP'd 5. So he's showndown just once in exactly 5 times.
That doesn't mean anything.

How much WTSD sample size we need to get a clear idea of his river nittyness?
 
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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I'd say at least 50 samples, and by that I mean 50 flops seen where he VPIP'd. So 200+ hands.

A lot of stats (especially the per street postflop stats) need at least 100 hands and often preferably 500+ to be accurate.

If they greatly diverge from what's considered 'average', then you could probably spot the trend sooner because you know where it's headed.


I had 2 sessions on Monday where my VPIP/PFR/3-bet% preflop was 80+/60+/33+ after 18 hands of 6-max. I just got a lot of good cards - I normally run at 26/20/8.
I also had a session where I was 5/5/0 after 38 hands where I was just card-dead.
Don't be too quick to trust your HUD on a small sample.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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I don't get why we are bluffing when we are offered such a good price. i could see raising the tiny donk bet on the flop tho.
 
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