$5 NLHE 6-max: AK - Top two pair fold? Too Nitty?

H

Howayanow

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Hi All,

First post - Thanks in advance for any help! Its a hand I'm not sure if I'm playing too tightly on or not.

The hand is below, I'll explain my logic afterwards.


PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 109 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 36)
SB: 115.8 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 32.81, PFR: 24.22, 3Bet Preflop: 14.81, Hands: 131)
Hero (UTG): 117.6 BB
CO: 31.6 BB (VPIP: 70.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 10)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A K♣

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) T♠ 7 A
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

Turn: (30.4 BB, 2 players) K
BB bets 20 BB
, Hero calls 20 BB

River: (70.4 BB, 2 players) 3♣
BB bets 65 BB and is all-in, fold

BB wins 67.4 BB

So to break it down:
Pre - Nothing unusual - pretty standard as far as I can see.
Flop - My C-Bet is almost always this size in this case so I'm keeping it uniform. When the villain raises, I'm thinking either worse Ace or any Set. Flush draw seems highly unlikely to be raising?
Turn - Looks like a really nice card for me as I was ruling out the flush. Bet comes and I'm really hoping its AT-AQ type hand but wary of a set. My logic here is a call, and if they shove on the river I'm folding (most likely to a set).
River - Shove comes as feared, folded top two pair.

So my real question is - I'm getting 2 to 1 on the river, should I be calling? Villain looks like a LAG type player, how often am I realistically going to be ahead or splitting here? My feeling is that the best possible chance I have is that they have AK and we're chopping, anything worse seems unlikely?

Thoughts or opinions would be greatly appreciated.

Also - if anyone has an input I'm currently working on studying the game in sequence, i.e. Pre-Flop Play, Post-Flop...and so on. If anyone has any suggestions as to good pre-flop books or other resources that would be great.

Thanks!
 
terryk

terryk

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I would of shoved on the turn,but that`s me:rolleyes: I think you were prob ahead there.(i think he/she has A-10)
 
A

AlexTheOwl

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Flop - . . . When the villain raises, I'm thinking either worse Ace or any Set. Flush draw seems highly unlikely to be raising?
Turn - Looks like a really nice card for me as I was ruling out the flush.

Why are you ruling out the flush?

As you say, player's stats are LAG.

Your c-bet looks like a c-bet. A LAG thinks "chance that you will fold + chance that I will make the flush and win a big pot = profitable 3-bet".
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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What's villain's fold to c-bet percentage? Aggression frequency? Raise flop c-bet percentage?

I'm okay with the way you played it, but could be convinced to fold earlier or call later based on stats. 131 hands, you should have a good sample.
 
S

Sidetracked

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I've seen a lower 2 pr there too often to be able to fold. Sometimes it will be a flush or a set, but you win enough to make the call OK, I think.
 
A

AlexTheOwl

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My estimate for villain's range non - bluffing range on river is [AA,KK,TT,77,AK,AQ,AT,A7, *h*h]. *h*h represents any two heart cards.

His Pre-flop range is much wider, but the 3-bet on the flop, and bets on the turn and river, narrow this down to where I think top pair with a Queen kicker is his weakest holding.

Villain is a LAG, but I don't think he is three-barrel bluffing here often. If he's a thinking player he should see that you have been playing like someone with a strong hand.

Your equity against this range is 29%, with split pots 5% of the time.

Pot contains 135 BB and it's 65 to you to call, so 65 / (135+65) = you need 32% equity to call. That's close, especially since bluffs, although unlikely, are not impossible.

Flip a coin. Heads call, Tails fold. You aren't making a big mistake either way.

I agree with c9h that villain's post-flop stats would influence my decision here.
 
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