$5 NLHE 6-max: A8s Two-Pair Situation: Would you have folded this?

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Hi all,

I didn't have a read on this guy as he was only at the table for 55 hands; However, I had a gut feeling he had two pair at the time. Given the stats I did have, I put him on AK-A10. With this board and the fact he lead into me from OOP and barrelled all 3 streets pretty heavily (He never bet post flop in this session, given 1 opportunity to do so), I figured him for AK or A10 by the turn.

I cannot discount AQ though... Would you have folded in this case?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 385.4 BB
SB: 153 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 21.43, Hands: 28)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.22, PFR: 10.43, 3Bet Preflop: 7.50, Hands: 216)
UTG: 124 BB (VPIP: 6.38, PFR: 6.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)
MP: 173 BB (VPIP: 20.57, PFR: 17.48, 3Bet Preflop: 8.76, Hands: 402)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.04, PFR: 10.58, 3Bet Preflop: 6.59, Hands: 295)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A 8

UTG raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (13 BB, 4 players) T A K
SB checks, UTG bets 8 BB, fold, Hero calls 8 BB, fold

Turn: (29 BB, 2 players) 8
UTG bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB

River: (69 BB, 2 players) 9
UTG bets 35 BB, fold

UTG wins 66.2 BB
 
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Henreiman

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I would probably play it as you would. The bet on the end looks so value juicy, I think he shuts down with AQ/AJ and I can't see him betting with air after two calls on such a wet board. He can easily show AK, A10, A9, JQ, sets, etc
 
John A

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Fold pre-flop. You have a nit opening UTG and a pretty right reg calling him right after. You're pretty much never getting paid off with this hand, and I don't think you need to consider outplaying either of them as a reason for calling.

It all starts with good pre-flop decisions. Now you're on the river getting a great price with two pair. Some of these guys at these stakes don't know what to do w/ AQ/AJ so they bet it. But against this guy, I'd probably fold.
 
DonV73

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One thing doesn't make sense to me. If you think your A8 is beat already on the turn, why not fold there instead of on the river?

Also, imo he might easily have a pair like TT+ there too, so by betting so big he could be protecting himself against straight or flush.

In any case, I would have folded preflop already against a UTG open raise.
 
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hffjd2000

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I agree posts above, your hand is a troubled hand in the first place. You could have save yourself even at the flop when you called preflop.
 
Arjonius

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Fold pre-flop. You have a nit opening UTG and a pretty right reg calling him right after. You're pretty much never getting paid off with this hand, and I don't think you need to consider outplaying either of them as a reason for calling.

It all starts with good pre-flop decisions. Now you're on the river getting a great price with two pair. Some of these guys at these stakes don't know what to do w/ AQ/AJ so they bet it. But against this guy, I'd probably fold.
^This^

Yes, your sample is small, but that's not a good reason to ignore it. Maybe he's not as tight as his current 7 vpip indicates, but how much less tight does he need to be to put you in a favorable spot if you call? It seems pretty optimistic to think he's less tight by enough.

You should also factor in that there's already a caller, and that if you call, it's more likely one or both of the blinds will call too. With a hand that doesn't flop especially well, folding seems the clear choice.
 
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Thanks everyone,

I agree folding preflop is what I should have done and would be my advice too if the shoe was on the other foot.

I played this hand to mix it up against the tight players ahead of me and not be predictable in my starting/calling range; I think it was not the best type of starting hand to be mixing it up with; I'm also not sure "mixing it up" is necessary or wise at microstakes, but anyway...

DonV73, fair question. I called him to see would he shut down on the river, in case my gut feeling was wrong. I was also looking for a scare flush card on the river as a backup plan.

But yes, the winning answer was: Fold preflop.
 
Arjonius

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I played this hand to mix it up against the tight players ahead of me and not be predictable in my starting/calling range; I think it was not the best type of starting hand to be mixing it up with; I'm also not sure "mixing it up" is necessary or wise at microstakes, but anyway...
It's NL5. Play like it's NL5.

For mixing it up to be beneficial against a given opponent, he must be (a) aware enough to notice, and (b) willing / able to adapt his play accordingly. It's likely that this describes relatively few players at this level. So when it's appropriate to mix it up tends to be limited and opponent-specific.
 
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erlanditas

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You should call here, he can get AJ or AQ, and a flush draw like 10J with flush draw on flop he can too value bet bluff you
 
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