$5 NLHE 6-max: 88 Overpair facing flop raise - clear fold?

M

Menschlich

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 15, 2013
Total posts
64
Chips
0
888 Poker - $0.06 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $7.68 (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 15.22, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, hands: 46)
MP: $14.95 (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 46)
Hero (CO): $6.22
BTN: $2.96 (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 8)
SB: $6.00 (VPIP: 15.15, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 35)
BB: $4.27 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

SB posts SB $0.03, BB posts BB $0.06

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.09) Hero has :8h4: :8d4:

fold, MP raises to $0.18, Hero calls $0.18, BTN calls $0.18, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.63, 3 players) :6h4: :4c4: :2h4:
MP bets $0.06, Hero raises to $0.49, BTN raises to $2.78, fold, Hero calls $2.29

Turn: ($6.25, 2 players) :js4:

River: ($6.25, 2 players) :ks4:

Don't really know why I called this one. Is everyone else in agreement that this was a bad call? I based my call on the villian's stats but I really didn't have enough hands on him to justify it.
 
H

Henreiman

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 17, 2008
Total posts
560
Chips
0
I don't have an equity calculator so I'm not going to be the most reliable source here, but I'm not actually ready to call this a bad call.

Let's assume his flatting range preflop excludes 10s+, AJs+, KQs.

Now let's move to post-flop play. It pretty much depends on what you consider his shove range to be. 99 is pretty much the only pre-flop made hand that has you beat. 22, 44, 66 are all possibilities but I expect a short stacked button to flat and hope MP comes along. 64s has 2 available combos and 35s is unlikely but has 4 combos. On the other hand, a6s has three combos, 65s has 3 combos, 67s has 3 combos, 68s has 2 combos. Then let's assume he's shoving with any flush draws...you're losing in equity to two overs + fd or 75h or 54h, but a lot of those combos he should be repopping pre. That leaves A10h, KJh, QJh, Q10h, K10h, 109h, 10Jh reasonably in his calling range that have us beat for equity, and even then we are getting significant pot odds. Negotiate that against the list of hands you're crushing (straight draws/one pairs) and I may actually find a call.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

Resident Thugmaster
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2009
Total posts
3,127
Chips
0
I probably wouldn't raise the flop, not sure why you felt the need to. That being said I'd probably just call the shove and flip.
 
M

Menschlich

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 15, 2013
Total posts
64
Chips
0
I probably wouldn't raise the flop, not sure why you felt the need to. That being said I'd probably just call the shove and flip.
I thought that if I just called that I would be put in a difficult spot if an overcard came and he kept firing.

He actually had QQ in this spot which is bizarre.
 
K

Kibic1302

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 14, 2013
Total posts
94
Awards
1
Chips
1
I think that happened in this case was A10S +.

I personally would give a check on the flop. And in turn, the attack on the pot.
 
M

matiusaa

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 29, 2013
Total posts
779
Chips
0
From my experience, when I found myself in these situations, when I called, i founded myself drawing almost dead against a bigger pp. There is yet a possibility that he has got only a flush draw, and that we can say because of his stats, even though they are 8 hands, a vpip of 75 is huge, so I believe he is just bluffing, his AF would be usefull too. I guess his AF is also high.
 
Folding in Poker
Top