$5 NLHE 6-max: $5 NLHE 6-max: Effectiveness of Big Turn Bluff

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/19/11

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/19/11

I played a hand online where I was in the BB and I was playing a tight player pre flop but who had a CB frequency of 100% and an aggression factor of 67 via poker tracker 4. The hand played out as follows

Villain opens to 2.5 BB in the HJ
Hero calls in BB with Ad9h

The flops comes: Qd8hTd

Villain bets 75% pot
Hero just calls

Turn comes: 2h

Villain barrels again for 86% of the pot
The pot at this point is $1.30

Hero check raises roughly 150% to $3.30

Villain folds.

I've played the hand out in Flopzilla and (correct me if I'm wrong) I don't believe he has a huge range advantage on me given I am on in the BB, and considering his aggression I assumed his range that he would bet so aggressively would just weak pockets and most draws.
When I bluff raised I found i had a BE of roughly 60% and I have positive blockers for his nutted hands.

I am curious to know if this is a good bluff theoretically, and also as a student of the game how I would evaluate a bluff like this, in terms of BE %, vs his range. I assume I want
60% < x hands in his range that would fold to a raise. (Again correct me if I'm wrong)

Thanks!:icon_sant

First, hud statistics approximate you better, the larger the sample size of hands. So if, for example, these data correspond to a sample of 40 hands, the truth is that it is a very low sample, and only we can approximate a bit the player profile we face, but to perform a specific strategy, the information exposed, It will have a fairly important variance. And as a consequence, the decisions we make, based on biased information, will make our game have an inconsistent development in the long term, because we will consider assumptions, which really still need deeper observation, to be considered relevant information.
If we talk about samples of size 100 or higher, they are just considered very minimums samples. This to give you an idea, that you really need a large number of hands (maybe a initial minimum 500 hands) to start building a strategy against a particular player.
Regards.

Its probably an ok bluff. The Villain seem to be on the aggressive side (but how large was your sample?), and you can represent a bunch of flopped two pair and even a straight on this board. Which makes it kind of hard for him to continue with a hand like top pair.

You also have some relevant blockers, which is good. You having a 9 not only give you some equity with a gutshot, it also makes it less likely, he has a flopped straight. Even having Ad is good, because it block the nut flushdraw, which is a hand, that is also never folding to a raise.

gustav197poker said:

First, hud statistics approximate you better, the larger the sample size of hands. So if, for example, these data correspond to a sample of 40 hands, the truth is that it is a very low sample, and only we can approximate a bit the player profile we face, but to perform a specific strategy, the information exposed, It will have a fairly important variance. And as a consequence, the decisions we make, based on biased information, will make our game have an inconsistent development in the long term, because we will consider assumptions, which really still need deeper observation, to be considered relevant information.
If we talk about samples of size 100 or higher, they are just considered very minimums samples. This to give you an idea, that you really need a large number of hands (maybe a initial minimum 500 hands) to start building a strategy against a particular player.
Regards.

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Thanks! This makes a lot of sense and should help me tighten up in some spots as I often want to play exploitatively but, with out enough hands it makes sense to adopt a more GTO approach.

fundiver199 said:

Its probably an ok bluff. The Villain seem to be on the aggressive side (but how large was your sample?), and you can represent a bunch of flopped two pair and even a straight on this board. Which makes it kind of hard for him to continue with a hand like top pair.

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I only had a sample of 77 hands which I know isn't enough, as mentioned in the previous reply, and ultimately should lead to more GTO style of play.

Although from a GTO perspective I would imagine that, given things like blockers, removal effects and bet sizes that a bluff like this could fit into a theoretical strategy given that most players develop some kind of raising range

Hey. This board is very good for our range, so we should check-raise a lot (fds, bdsfds, gutshots and pair+ draw hands). I would just check-raise all-in on the turn, but even calling seems fine with so much equity.
You probably do not have enough hands to make conclusions on your opponent, but he does not seem to be a fish...

Robinson24 said:

I only had a sample of 77 hands which I know isn't enough, as mentioned in the previous reply, and ultimately should lead to more GTO style of play.

Although from a GTO perspective I would imagine that, given things like blockers, removal effects and bet sizes that a bluff like this could fit into a theoretical strategy given that most players develop some kind of raising range

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Keep in mind that GTO style is only effecive against someone who plays GTO style himself, everything else is not max EV, wich is what you should aim for instead. And NL5 is not really known for players that study solvers 5 hours a day, if you know what i mean

If someone plays a exploitative style (let's assume you actually had a relevant sample) the most max EV play would always be an exploitative approach. Thus if he c-bets flop 100% (expl.), you want to be raising that flop. Also with a pretty wide range, with A9s that's all most a premium holding if you could assume he c-bets 100%

Also you need to take these stats with a big big grain of salt. Preflop stats become relevant on a range of 100-200 Hands. Postflop you want to aim for a min of 500, 1000 is better.

I'm using HM2, and you can define a min sample for each stat, I imagine PT4 or any other HUD should give you the same option. Don't fall into the trap of making wrong assumptions based on stats that don't give you the big picture.

If we think his range is weak, wouldn’t it make more sense to XR flop to risk less?
If we are afraid that he peels lightly and calls I prefer your line.

My advice is that I wouldn’t worry about GTO or balance at 5NL. I think to maximize your EV you should lean a lot towards value betting. I would limit bluffing as much as possible. People always find a reason to call