$5 NLHE 6-max: $5 NLHE 6-max: Is it a right play against a set?

B

bondgaurav21

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PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 110.6 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 31.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 17)
BTN: 144.4 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T:diamond: A:diamond:

CO raises to 4 BB, fold, Hero calls 3.6 BB, BB calls 3 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 3 players) 4:club: J:diamond: Q:diamond:
Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets 5.8 BB, Hero calls 5.8 BB, BB raises to 19.6 BB, fold, Hero calls 13.8 BB

Turn: (57 BB, 2 players) 8:heart:
Hero checks, BB bets 76.4 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 76.4 BB and is all-in

River: (209.8 BB, 2 players) 9:spade:

Hero shows T:diamond: A:diamond: (Straight, Queen High)

BB shows 4:spade: 4:heart: (Three of a Kind, Fours)

Hero wins 201 BB

Is it a right play against set? Do i have to shove it in flop or call it the flop re-raise to check my equity on these hand?
 
Cherubael

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Assuming you know he had a set and weren't bluff catching (which the question implies) calling a ~1.3x pot bet on the turn with A high and a draw (albeit a good one) isn't the right call.

Mathematically, your pot odds are 1.75:1 (have to call 76BB into 133) but you've 15 outs (9 diamonds to a flush and the 3 other non diamond kings and the three other non diamond 9s for straights) which given the rule of 4/2 puts you on ~30% equity or odds of 2.3:1 . You're chances of winning the pot are lower than the risk/reward for the money you'll get compared to that reward you're risking by calling so you should fold.

As John said you can use a poker calculator to figure out your exact equity but either way you were a fair way out.
 
Shaetano

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You got lucky there :)
Essentially you got your money in way behind.
You had 15 outs left when going all-in.

If we check the poker odds page, and we check the part for open-ended straight draw, you're about 4.8:1 behind (you can get the exact numbers when using John A's tool, use it to evaluate future hands! :)), four to a flush you're about 4.1:1 behind.

You weren't getting the odds to call, so the play by your opponent was in fact better...

Edit: what Cherubael said... :)
 
TimovieMan

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You can't be sure that the preflop aggressor will c-bet multiway, so this might be a good spot to lead out on the flop.

As played, flop is good, you have more than enough equity to improve when behind. Since you have the Ad AND the Td, it's unlikely you're up against another flush draw or even KT/T9, so I think you're up against a made hand here, and considering the strength he's showing, it's going to be at least AQ, imo.

If it's a single pair, and our A-outs are still good (he has QT/KQ), then we're still 55% favourites on the flop. If it's QJ, then we've only got 45% equity, and if it's a set, we're down to 35%.

You can definitely call the flop raise, and if you improve immediately, you have two streets of implied odds as well.
Having said that, since I don't think he's on a draw but has a made hand, it's unlikely that we're ever getting a free river card, so be prepared to muck it if you don't improve and are facing a big bet.


On the turn, we pick up an additional gutshot, so we have a big draw, but there's only one card left to come, and we're facing a huge bet.
We need 36.4% equity to continue here, and we only have that vs KQ or worse.

If he's not on a draw and has at least AQ (or QJ/44), then our total equity is going to be about 33%. If you add a couple weaker holdings like KQ/QT, we improve to 36%. If you add a couple of strong draws like Kd9d/KTs/T9s, then we improve to 40%.

Calling isn't going to be a terrible mistake here, but given his show of strength on the flop and turn, and the fact that we're holding two cards that severely limit the amount of draws he's semi-bluffing, I think it's a losing proposition.
But even against specifically 44, you still have 30% equity, so it's not a huge mistake by any means, but it's a mistake nonetheless.


For future reference: for a better analysis on your decisions, don't post the results - it might skew people's analysis if they know what you were up against.


Edit:

You had 15 outs left when going all-in.
13 outs if you're up against a set. The 4d and 8d don't help us in that case.
 
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