$5 NLHE 6-max: 4card flush board, can I bluff here?

$5 NL HE 6-max: 4card flush board, can I bluff here?

Same villain as in my other post(43/3/77afq over 32 hands)

poker stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 803104
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Frikski (SB): $12.38
donkmcdonk (BB): $5.00
Hero (UTG): $5.29
mMdj87 (MP): $10.13
shrewsbury91 (CO): $5.87
loco604250 (BTN): $5.35

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with A J
Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, loco604250 calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 7 2 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, loco604250 raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($1.17) A (2 players)
Hero checks, loco604250 bets $0.45, Hero calls $0.45

River: ($2.07) 4 (2 players)
Hero ???

On the flop I put him on a 7, or maybe some kind of small-mid pair, so I called hoping that I hit my ace and that he doesn't have a 7. On the turn I hit my ace, and didn't think he had the flush as this guy probably doesnt raise FDs so I called the turn bet and was going to check/call any smallish bet on the river.

When I saw the fourth diamond hit I thought it might be good to bet this. If he has a 7, that means he was probably playing some type of connector(suited/1gapers etc) and if he has a diamond it probably would be too small to call a bet with. If he was playing a small-mid pair he'd probably fold too for the same reason. Should I bet the river?

Google "Clarkmeister Theorem".

EDIT - I just saw villain's aggression frequency! Holy crap, 77% is insane. With a guy like this I would definitely just check and let him bluff again. AJ beats a lot of hands on this board.

It was only over 32 hands though so it doesn't really mean anything

bgomez89 said:

It was only over 32 hands though so it doesn't really mean anything

Click to expand...

With it being that high, and his VPIP being 43%, it certainly means something. He's played about 14ish hands postflop, so he's had plenty of chances to bet.

AFq isn't like 3-bet percentage. 3-bets happen pretty infrequently, because first you have to be facing a preflop raise, and secondly you have to have that top 10%-15% of hands that you 3-bet. So it takes a while to add up.

Sure, his true AFq could be like 50%, but that's still crazy aggressive for a 43% VPIP. The sample size is small, but his numbers are SOOO far out there.

Plus, while I like Clarkmeistering, bluffing with a hand that has showdown value against a 43% VPIP probably isn't great. I think given these odd-ball stats & situation, I actually like a check/call more than a bet.

I ended up half-potting it. He thought for a while but eventually called 97o(no diamond). I probably could've gotten him off if i had bet 3/4 like the theorem said though

check call is the best idea.