5NL 43s hand review
Hi alipalip. I'm going to try and give you a really detailed review of your hand.
Pre-flop: I would fold here after a raise from the CO and a call from the BTN. We're OOP against 2 players. The BTN is very short (38BB) and if you do hit a big hand your position is going to make it more difficult to get value. I know SCs like these look pretty, but this isn't really a great spot for it, especially seeing as the CO (although we only have a small sample) appears to be at least somewhat passive. A raise from him in the CO could be quite strong. We're getting. 3.1 to 1 in pot odds
, it's not really enough here considering we also have the BB to act behind us.
As played, we need to start thinking about our opponents ranges. Let's start with the CO. He seems fairly passive, doesn't raise too much, so we can give him 66+, ATo+, A7s+, KJo+, KTs+, QJs, JTs and 87s+. That sounds reasonable.
As for the BTN, we have no data, except that he's short, which should indicate that he's a recreational player and not that skilled (he doesn't auto-rebuy). We'll give him a standard calling range in this spot of 77-JJ, AQo, ATs-AQs, JTs, KTs, QJs, 65s.
Flop: Obviously this is a good flop for us, with an OESD. Checking to the raiser is the correct play. The CO leads out for a fairly large c-bet. On this board he probably does this with most hands, except for really strong hands (he can afford to slow-play on this board because there aren't many draws) and hands with showdown value like 5x and 2x. This means we can take pocket pairs below QQ out of his range and maybe AK. We'll also take out a couple of junky hands that missed, because he probably doesn't c-bet some 8-high and so on that completely missed because it's a multi-way pot. The BTN folds, so he's no longer an issue.
We know we're not folding. So, do we call or raise? If we're thinking of raising, we need to ask ourselves what can we fold out, because obviously it would be a bluff. He's got 116 combos left in the range I've assigned. He will obviously continue with Jx+, seeing as it's a dry board. 48 of his combos fit in that range. So that's 59% of his range that we should be able to fold out, give or take. This guy seems quite passive so I wouldn't expect him to ever 3-bet bluff us on this flop really. This should make raising the logical play here, because we can fold out tons of hands that beat us, and if we're called, we still have at least 8 outs. Calling isn't bad, but raising is the best play.
Turn: It's a decent card, giving you a pair, and it never helps your opponent. It is concerning that he barrels, and quite large (71% of pot, the same size as flop). This isn't a great card for him to bluff, and it's clear you have something, because you called on the flop. This should lead you to deduce he probably has a pair here, at least. He can occasionally have a hand like AQ (2 overs and an inside straight draw), and be barrelling that because he has a fair few cards he can hit. Seeing as he seems fairly passive though, a pair is more likely. By my range analysis, about 25% of his combos are the A-high with a straight draw, and 75% are strong one pair hands (JT, KJ, QJ, AJ, QQ+). Now, you have 10 outs here against this range (4 Aces, 4 sixes and 2 fours). This gives you about 21% chance to hit. You're not getting the right odds based on this BUT you're still ahead of some of his range, and you have great implied odds because the times you do hit, you will probably get more money out of his top pair hands (an A may even give him 2 pair, and you a straight). This is a definite call, so nice job for making it.
River: Best card in the deck. Now, refer back to what I said about the A (it might give him 2 pair if he has AJ, or a strong TP if he was floating with a hand like AQ. He will have AQ, AJ, or AA about 44% of the time here (24 out of 54 combos) and the rest of the time he'll have Jx.
So what do we do? If we check, Jx will check back. The stronger part of his range will probably bet. Our hand is well-disguised, so I like your lead-out because we weren't getting any money out of Jx anyway, most of the time, and this is a good card to bluff on, so he might level himself into thinking we're trying to make him fold Jx. He'll have to call if he's made top two, and he'll also have to call if he has AQ (or a hand like that) realistically. BUT, I don't like the sizing. This just looks so strong, and gives him terrible odds to call. Any player worth their salt would be able to fold everything except exactly AJ, or AA here. It's very obvious you have the nuts when you bet double the pot. A better option is to bet a reasonable size, and hope that he thinks his AQ, AJ, AA is the best hand and shoves over the top of your bet. I'd make it about $1.90-$2. That should sometimes get value from Jx, as well as being small enough to represent a wider range of hands than the nuts. He'll definitely shove over this with AA and AJ, and may do with a hand like AQ.
Hope this is helpful!