$5 NLHE 6-max: 3 bet shove on turn with boat?

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roddy1977

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/18/2

Up against a sensible reg here. Should I be worried about his raise on the turn enough to consider slowing down, or is it a straightforward shove?

pokerstars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Converted at http://www.handhistoryconverter.com

Hero (Button) ($8.63)
SB ($13.55)
BB ($4.74)
UTG ($5)
MP ($2.50)
CO ($16.83)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6c, 6s
2 folds, CO raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) Jc, Kc, Ks (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.47) 6h (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $0.23, Hero raises to $0.70, 1 fold, CO raises to $2.35

Hero?
 
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Blair29

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Two things that would concern me are..

I doubt a decent reg would check a lone K with the flop being quite draw heavy

They are probably not semi bluffing a straight or flush draw on a paired board either.

So its not unreasonable to expect to see villain have KJ or JJ in this hand. But your also ahead of some of villains value hands as well.

Basically if I read someone as a good player, i'd probably go into check call mode. You might lose some value from a K but to me it doesn't feel like just trips.
 
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c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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If villain's flop cbet % is low, bet the flop.

Can probably wait until the river to raise. Lots of Jx in villain's range that may bet the river again but folds to a raise. But we want all the money in at the end of the hand, KJ/JJ/KK is a cooler.

Lastly, if BB is a fish, calling the turn to bring him along is fine.
 
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roddy1977

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Two things that would concern me are..

I doubt a decent reg would check a lone K with the flop being quite draw heavy

They are probably not semi bluffing a straight or flush draw on a paired board either.

So its not unreasonable to expect to see villain have KJ or JJ in this hand. But your also ahead of some of villains value hands as well.

Basically if I read someone as a good player, i'd probably go into check call mode. You might lose some value from a K but to me it doesn't feel like just trips.

Fantastic analysis, you are dead right - villain had KJ, as I discovered after shoving the turn! Tough to slow down, but if I'd thought about it more I would've done. Just goes to show that situations that initially seem straightforward are not always so, given the correct thought process!
 
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roddy1977

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If villain's flop cbet % is low, bet the flop.

Can probably wait until the river to raise. Lots of Jx in villain's range that may bet the river again but folds to a raise. But we want all the money in at the end of the hand, KJ/JJ/KK is a cooler.

Lastly, if BB is a fish, calling the turn to bring him along is fine.

Thanks for the advice! Just wondering if you could explain a little more about why the villain's flop cbet%, if low, should cause me to bet the flop?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Thanks for the advice! Just wondering if you could explain a little more about why the villain's flop cbet%, if low, should cause me to bet the flop?
If villain is more straightforward (checks when they have nothing), their cbet % will be lower. So when they check, they're less likely to be trapping.
 
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mikeisthebestever

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The way this hand has gone so far feels like he has JJ. It totally sucks but I think you can make a pretty exploitative fold here. What hands do you beat? AK, KQ, K10? 4-bet on the turn should tell you its not KQ or K10. What does he think you are raising him with? Id say he most likely puts YOU on the king because he doesnt have one. I might be overthinking this, but I think you are beat.
 
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MrSamsa

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/18/2

Up against a sensible reg here. Should I be worried about his raise on the turn enough to consider slowing down, or is it a straightforward shove?

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Converted at http://www.handhistoryconverter.com

Hero (Button) ($8.63)
SB ($13.55)
BB ($4.74)
UTG ($5)
MP ($2.50)
CO ($16.83)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6c, 6s
2 folds, CO raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) Jc, Kc, Ks (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.47) 6h (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $0.23, Hero raises to $0.70, 1 fold, CO raises to $2.35

Hero?

Seems straight forward to me his value raising range as played only has 2 combos that have you beat jj and Kj the rest through K10s+ would do the same he may even be spazing with QQ when it checks through putting you on Jx which you will have very often on the button. and is what your bet kinda says when it checks though. I'm guessing he coolered you though? If that's the case you just cant get away from that type of scenario, but hope you took it down OP
 
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MrSamsa

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Fantastic analysis, you are dead right - villain had KJ, as I discovered after shoving the turn! Tough to slow down, but if I'd thought about it more I would've done. Just goes to show that situations that initially seem straightforward are not always so, given the correct thought process!

But check call mode will end you exactly where shoving the turn will. It becomes an either or situation with his 3 bet sizing committing him to the pot- at this point either he has the boat and you're crushed or he has trips and you are way ahead. You don't have enough information to put villain on specifically 6 combos of KJ or 3 combos of JJ. You know he has a hand strong enough to call a jam with after committing to the pot but all his Kx hands and even as i stated below sometimes his QQ or AA hands can do this which you have crushed. Its -EV to fold here and is a results oriented assumption
 
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roddy1977

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But check call mode will end you exactly where shoving the turn will. It becomes an either or situation with his 3 bet sizing committing him to the pot- at this point either he has the boat and you're crushed or he has trips and you are way ahead. You don't have enough information to put villain on specifically 6 combos of KJ or 3 combos of JJ. You know he has a hand strong enough to call a jam with after committing to the pot but all his Kx hands and even as i stated below sometimes his QQ or AA hands can do this which you have crushed. Its -EV to fold here and is a results oriented assumption

I totally see where you're coming from, but surely the villain's check on the flop - as has been pointed out - leans more towards him having a made hand that doesn't fear the straight or flush completing on the turn? Whilst it's difficult to definitely put him on KJ or JJ, I'd say it's a pretty big clue. Surely it's correctly identifying this kind of subtle detail that makes a huge difference to one's win rate?
 
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MrSamsa

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I totally see where you're coming from, but surely the villain's check on the flop - as has been pointed out - leans more towards him having a made hand that doesn't fear the straight or flush completing on the turn? Whilst it's difficult to definitely put him on KJ or JJ, I'd say it's a pretty big clue. Surely it's correctly identifying this kind of subtle detail that makes a huge difference to one's win rate?

Even if villain did put him on those types of hands, his turn 3-bet would then seem more weighted towards vulnerable hands like Kx that would check the flop vs a weak button calling range looking to get it in good on the turn vs draws that would raise him.
Why rush into it if you have the nuts and all the draws bricked? Why not let him get there and put the money in himself?
His betting makes his hand look weak not strong. The only way I see a fold is if you are in some leveling war where you somehow deduce that he has deduced you have a strong piece of the board and aren't letting go to anything, but he significantly blocks any piece of the board you might have other than draws and the one value hand you have. Villains turn 3 bet size is horrible given how locked down the board is
 
TheBigFinn

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As I write Villain's hand has already been revealed, but I'll try and write as if it is unknown. Villain open looks to be ~15% making your call behind 45/55, in position perfectly fine. TT and above would 3-bet, so your hand is a little face up as low pairs and suited connectors.

On the flop Villains range pulls away from Ks (since there are only 2 in the deck and jacks, but Villain is further ahead 35/65. Not a good place for Hero to bluff, so I take the free card every time.

The 6 on the turn is great for Hero, and looks to be a blank for Villain (only 1 6 out) and Villain would like think it is a blank for Hero, so her raise on the turn is very wide. It looks like Hero is way ahead so the re-raise is completely understandable.

Looking a Villain's shove it could be lots of things. KJ, JJ, AK, KQ with a few flush draw.there are 3-JJ combos, 6-KJ 8-AK 6-KQ plus a couple of semi-bluff flush draws. Hero has to call $1.65 to win $3.75. You can cry, but Hero has to call, IMHO.
 
dragon1977

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In this situation I never use slowplay. All in. :D
 
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