re: Poker & .5/.10 NL Flopped Quads...
Originally Posted by F Paulsson
What I'm getting at is that with his extremely narrow range, he's basically either slowplaying a big pocket pair, or he's checking AK UI. Given his aggression factor, it seems exceedingly unlikely that he'd just give up with AK on a 5-5-3 board. Does he never c-bet?
The reason that slowplaying sits so badly with me is that by checking this flop, we're vastly reducing our chance to take his entire stack because future betting rounds will be into a very a small pot. I mean, when are we planning to put in action? On the turn? So he bets the pot on the turn - $.80 - and we raise to... Raise to what? How do we possibly hope to get all his chips in against any hand that isn't automatically going to stack off (in this case, I suppose that would be 33). On a paired board, an obvious slowplay (and checking behind on the flop and raising the turn sure qualifies) is going to scream "strength!" much, much more than just betting the flop and taking a shot at it would.
Even if we put him on the weakest hand that seems to be in his range, AQo, and then an ace or a queen falls on the turn - he leads out for the pot, and we raise, and he... It's going to be difficult to stack him here, at least if he's the kind who easily folds to a little flop aggression after checking.
The only argument I could see for slowplaying is if we somehow knew he had a flushdraw. But flushdraws are a very small part of his range.
Well even if he had only
a flushdraw we'd want to bet to build the pot for when he does hit the flush, and to get value for the times he misses (ie when he's still drawing).
I do agree with everything else you say though. Had villain bet it would have been the same old argument of whether or not we want to play the hand fast or slow (see my recent thread on that very same subject), but here he's checking and again, given his aggression factor I think it's pretty unlikely he's doing that with AK. Even with only ~40 hands on the guy.
Originally Posted by c9h13no3
Do you think we have that great of a shot at taking his entire stack on a board that very rarely hits anyone other than us? There is a chance that he's slowplaying TT+, but I think a hand that strong would lead here. I'm narrowing villain's range down to mostly un-paired overcards.
That said, I think we need to bet 45-60 cents here. Hopefully that will be cheap enough for him to see a turn card. If you've been doing a decent amount of C-betting, it won't say "I have a monster" all that often.
Well again take a look at his AF - it's way too high for him to be checking with overcards here. What type of overcards does a guy with an 11AF check with here? If he was getting tricky with JTs or whatever he's definitely going to bet, if he's got AK he'll do the same.
This smells to me like a trap and I think we should start building the pot now.
OP, could we get some c-bet stats and/or his flop aggression please?