Originally Posted by vanquish
GAME #1185100623: Texas Hold'em NL $2.00/$4.00 2008-09-26 20:03:07
Table Kwango (No DP)
Seat 1: myiqishigh ($406.00 in chips)
Seat 3: sexesymbole ($1,059.10 in chips) DEALER
Seat 4: KeiRstyle ($474.20 in chips)
Seat 5: ThatsWhatHappens ($513.38 in chips)
Seat 6: MissTofu ($400.00 in chips)
Seat 7: NatNat77 ($123.00 in chips)
Seat 8: smallfish7 ($98.50 in chips)
Seat 10: SipRocketBoy ($80.00 in chips)
KeiRstyle: Post SB $2.00
ThatsWhatHappens: Post BB $4.00
myiqishigh: Post BB $6.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ThatsWhatHappens [?????]
KeiRstyle: Raise (NF) $20.00
ThatsWhatHappens: Call $16.00
*** FLOP *** [2s 6c 7s]
ThatsWhatHappens: Bet $15.00
KeiRstyle: Call $15.00
*** TURN *** A♠
ThatsWhatHappens: Bet $55.00
KeiRstyle: Call $55.00
*** RIVER *** 5♣
ThatsWhatHappens: Bet $155.00
Villain is a very solid reg who plays up to 600nl. No stats, as I have no HUD, but I would estimate he plays around 16/14/3. My table image is very solid, aggressive. Have shown a couple busted hands, have also shown down winners.
Back to this...
Obviously we need to go on both ranges here. You've said he's not stealing a ton (honestly I've never experienced a game like that, most decent players who are ~16/14 would have at least a ~35% ATS, although granted it'd be smaller from SB because of lack of positional advantage postflop).
Anyway, so his range is pocket pairs, high cards, and maybe some mid to upper suited connectors.
You call, hopefully that filters out QQ+/AK. It could be any pocket pair or suited connector, but less likely to be a low SC just because his 5x raise brings the implied odds down a bit.
Low flop, he check-calls, you bet. He is a good player, so he's probably not doing this with an overpair. He would probably cbet a flush draw, OESD, and even several hands with just 2 overs. You bet, after his check that doesn't do much to filter your range down. He calls, this tells
us a lot. With this drawy of a board, you'd expect a set/2-pair/OESFD/other monsters to C/R. He doesn't, he calls. So we're looking at maybe an overpair, maybe an underpair figuring your range for a lot of draws/overs. Top pair would be a decent part but you said he doesn't steal that wide. For the same reason he would call with a low pocket or something, a hand like AK actually makes a lot of sense here, and makes more sense later in the hand.
Turn comes and the A hits, as well as completes the flush draw. He check-calls again. This is where his range seems to narrow a bit. I don't see a made flush check-calling here, I'd assume it would C/R if not bet out. If it did C/C I would expect it to lead river so as not to give you a cheap showdown with a 1-pair hand. This is also a great card for you to fire at with like an underpair, just because a flush draw seems to have been a good part of your range. You could also have a marginal A, but I guess I'd think that was less likely (as I don't think it's likely you'd flat AT/AJ from the BB, you'd probably 3-bet AK and maybe even AQ). River is a relative blank, although it fills up 89 for a straight, which really isn't in either of your ranges at this point (unless you already hit the flush, in which case it's irrelevant). He checks again, which again takes the made flush pretty much out of his range. Because of this you could be firing a wide range here, but this also means you would be firing sets/2-pair because you're not afraid of the flush. So imo your range is pretty wide while his is pretty narrow. I'd put him on AJ+/78/88-JJ with the 88-JJ having an extremely low weight, but a definite possibility. Because of this you may be firing your entire range, but because you know he's a good player and he'd know this and also because you have shown down bluffs, you're more likely to have a hand here.
So like I said, I think your range is wide here, but I'd say sets are definitely in your range, I don't know if he's folding AK so I think you would have checked behind an overpair and not turned it into a bluff. You could have hit a flush. Basically like I said it could go higher with multi-level thinking but it seems as if you have an extremely strong range here which consists of sets/2-pair/flushes, but if you think he thinks this you could do this with hands like pocket pairs turned into bluffs as well.
That's my take on it anyway.