400nl, floating small flop c/r from reg, turn decision

No stats or numbers, but this is for sure a regular. (Note: regulars are generally quite tight/weak at this site.)

GAME #1165697533: Texas Hold'em NL $2.00/$4.00 2008-09-15 01:59:37
Table Kuskokwim (No DP)
Seat 1: Roskonoiq ($412.30 in chips)
Seat 2: ThatsWhatHappens ($459.60 in chips)
Seat 3: zhel32 ($80.00 in chips) DEALER
Seat 4: HeavyPie ($517.40 in chips)
Seat 6: hibonushi ($455.60 in chips)
Seat 7: Jigga4Aces ($124.40 in chips)
Seat 9: MissesC ($128.00 in chips)
Seat 10: DQPx ($392.80 in chips)
HeavyPie: Post SB $2.00
hibonushi: Post BB $4.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ThatsWhatHappens [As 10c]
lightofheaven: Sitout
Jigga4Aces: Fold
MissesC: Fold
DQPx: Fold
Roskonoiq: Fold
ThatsWhatHappens: Raise (NF) $16.00
zhel32: Fold
HeavyPie: Fold
hibonushi: Call $12.00
*** FLOP *** [4c 6s 3s]
hibonushi: Check
ThatsWhatHappens: Bet $25.00
hibonushi: Raise (NF) $60.00
ThatsWhatHappens: Call $35.00
*** TURN *** [2d]
hibonushi: Check
ThatsWhatHappens: ????


Obviously, I was calling the flop c/r to make a move later, but should I make it on this card? How believable would a bet here be? How believable a river bet, if flush hits or otherwise?

I think if we chk this and bet the river, he'll probably call most river bets unless its a shove say. If we bet here now, were representing a lot of strengh ie big pairs or possibly some connection on the flop, so we should be able to fold out a decent amount of overpairs say 77-TT. The problem is if his range has connected here which if it has were folding out zilch.

If he's on the draw then checking behind may better, b/c on a blank river that gives us a better opportunity to fold out the possible flush part of his range.

I'm prolly in favour of betting now whilst we may have some fold equity, and giving us a chance to hit something if were called.

Unless you are putting him on a small range of overpairs I don't see you pushing him off his hand with that turn card. I really don't like to bet here.

However, I didn't observe any of this player's actions so if he is as tight/weak as you say he could easily lay a better hand down. The only problem is, you aren't beating much without a bluff

Lemlywinks said:

Unless you are putting him on a small range of overpairs I don't see you pushing him off his hand with that turn card. I really don't like to bet here.

The only problem is, you aren't beating much without a bluff

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Why would I put him on a small range of overpairs when he flat-called preflop out of the BB? I would say that his range is quite wide, and I find that a lot of people will c/r flops from the blinds with any pair, mainly because of the thought process of "I have a pair and he probably doesn't." I think this turn card folds out a lot of his one pair hands, and a lot of his draws that did not hit on the turn. My flop c/r calling range is also perceived as being really strong (It's probably something like any pair + OESD, any overpair, sets+.) So once he checks the turn, I think I have a great shot of taking this pot away from him (The pot is also quite large, and giving up on it would be quite a mistake.). I really don't see why you wouldn't bet this turn, when he basically shows willingness to give us the pot by checking the turn (Whoever, if ever, double check-raises, besides Vanessa Selbst, anyways?).

I'm inclined to bet the turn and if just called, bet the river. I think that line would fold out anything weaker than a set unless he's decided to go hero on you. You got your dream scare card on the turn (except for 2s), so don't give up unless it becomes clear that he has a monster.

I don't think he has to even have a pair. Lots of aggressive players make check-raise bluffs on weak flops after calling a raise heads up in the blinds. This is even more likely since you raised from the cutoff, which is prime stealing position. He could have nothing. He could have just the flush draw. He could have just a seven.

Oh yeah, and since the game tends to be weak-tight (which I agree about .5/1 to 2/4 stakes), this is the main way to make money. Push them past their comfort zone and they'll fold, but not before putting a nice chunk of change in the pot.

vanquish said:

Why would I put him on a small range of overpairs when he flat-called preflop out of the BB?

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He was the BB and everyone else had folded. Since he knew he would be against you heads up, it wouldn't be that bad of a play on his part to just call your pf raise with a big pair.

Leeguana said:

He was the BB and everyone else had folded. Since he knew he would be against you heads up, it wouldn't be that bad of a play on his part to just call your pf raise with a big pair.

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It'd be pretty bad considering he'd have to play his overpair OOP in a non-3-bet pot, I think.

Any history? What kind of range do you think the C/R represents? Is this air a lot of the time? Basically is he tricky enough to check the turn after the flop C/R with like a set here because he thinks you may fire here with air, or is he just not thinking this much?

zachvac said:

Any history? What kind of range do you think the C/R represents? Is this air a lot of the time? Basically is he tricky enough to check the turn after the flop C/R with like a set here because he thinks you may fire here with air, or is he just not thinking this much?

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I think the c/r on this board, in this spot, can be any pair, any draw, any combo draw, and of course 2pr+. I do not think he ever checks back a set on that turn to induce a bluff, as I don't think he's good enough to check the flop and turn without the nuts on this board.

It's funny because I find that non-stellar regs will tend to c/r one pair type hands on the flop OOP for no particular reason. Instead of c/c, they will c/r, and then shut down to more resistance, presumably because they follow the mindset of "raising to see where they're at" with their decent hands.

I don't like the c-bet very much, and I hate calling the c/r. What are you going to represent on that board? He has two pair/set/pair+draw so often, it's an awful spot to make a move.

I'd check-fold turn and river.

Chris_TC said:

I don't like the c-bet very much, and I hate calling the c/r. What are you going to represent on that board? He has two pair/set/pair+draw so often, it's an awful spot to make a move.

I'd check-fold turn and river.

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He has a set not that often because calling from BB with 66, 44, 33 against a cut-off raise (super wide range = no implied odds) is bad, and he is actually a regular (which implies that he does not make terrible plays too often). He also rarely has two pair because he never defends 64, 63, 32, etc. His range is, in fact, skewed away from the strong hands on that board, because those are not good hands for defending a wide-ranged raise (again, no implied odds), and towards hands that are too weak to continue past having a flop c/r called.

Also, not c-betting against a fairly weak-tight regular is pretty much a mistake if you're in position.

Basically, I can represent any overpair, any set, any two pair, any combo draw, whereas he can't "represent" anything, and can only continue on the turn with his legitimate hands (of which there are only those that made a straight, or are drawing to the nuts (remember, I have the As, so he can not have the nut spade draw)). He basically can not continue once I float his c/r without the narrowest range ever, which is why I floated the c/r in the first place, and why I was planning on betting almost any turn (and especially this turn).

Check-folding turn or river is awful if you call the flop c/r (especially after he checks the turn), so I'm assuming that you would fold to the original c/r, which, in my opinion, is putting the player on too strong a range, and neglecting to take advantage of an opportunity to win a decent sized pot without showdown (Although it is understandable if you do not want to make a move without specific reads.).

Chris_TC said:

I don't like the c-bet very much, and I hate calling the c/r.

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What's wrong with the c-bet? That's a pretty dry flop. What flops do you c-bet in position if not that one? I do agree that calling the check-raise hoping to bluff the turn is very risky. It's not something that I do.

Chris_TC said:

I'd check-fold turn and river.

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But... if you do end up seeing the turn, that's a great card to bluff. You don't just decide to bluff, get the perfect card to bluff, get the pot checked to you, and then give up on the bluff (unless you pick up a physical tell that makes you want to abort). There's no other reason to consider aborting the plan.

Jagsti said:

If he's on the draw then checking behind may better, b/c on a blank river that gives us a better opportunity to fold out the possible flush part of his range.

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This is one of the reasons I would advocate betting again on the river if he calls the turn. He also may stubbornly call with two pair or a set on the turn but fold to a second river bet.

vanquish said:

I really don't see why you wouldn't bet this turn, when he basically shows willingness to give us the pot by checking the turn (Whoever, if ever, double check-raises, besides Vanessa Selbst, anyways?).

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This is crucial, IMO. Two consecutive check-raises is extremely rare. Usually it's not a result of some plan. It's the kind of play that someone makes when they have absolutely no idea what they're trying to accomplish in the hand. If that's happening here, then it's probably that he bluffed the flop with a bare 5, expected to take it down right there, and then was flummoxed when he actually hit the straight. But the rest of his possible range is so much larger that I think bluffing is going to work well in excess of 50% of the time.

vanquish said:

He has a set not that often because calling from BB with 66, 44, 33 against a cut-off raise (super wide range = no implied odds) is bad, and he is actually a regular (which implies that he does not make terrible plays too often). He also rarely has two pair because he never defends 64, 63, 32, etc.

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Him being a regular means nothing, a lot of regulars suck pretty badly. Also, I certainly wouldn't consider calling 66 vs. a cutoff raise terrible at all. In fact, it would be my preferred play.

viking999 said:

What's wrong with the c-bet? That's a pretty dry flop.

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I wouldn't call three to a straight, duo-tone "dry". We have no need to bet because AT high has enough value on that board. Plus, we won't get him to fold any pair, let alone better.

The thing isn't that we want him to fold a pair to our c-bet necessarily. We want to put ourself in a spot to win a medium-sized pot, and position helps us do this greatly. If we can push him off everything besides the very very top of his range, continuing on this board is our most profitable play.

This is a spot where his range matters a lot more than ours, I would say. Also, lack of history sometimes leads me to continue in these types of spots, because I can then determine what types of hands he c/r's flops with, and how to play it better the next time he uses the same line (FWF theorem).

vanquish said:

The thing isn't that we want him to fold a pair to our c-bet necessarily. We want to put ourself in a spot to win a medium-sized pot, and position helps us do this greatly. If we can push him off everything besides the very very top of his range, continuing on this board is our most profitable play.

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Well, what you're saying could be applied to just about any flop. Of course it's most profitable if we can push him off of everything that's not the top of his range. And yet we don't triple barrel every other pot, do we?
You say we want to win a medium-sized pot, but with AT high that shouldn't be the goal. The goal should be to take it down cheaply or see a cheap showdown, not build up a medium-sized pot.

So, anyway, I'm kinda curious how the hand continued. What did you do on the turn?

Chris_TC said:

Well, what you're saying could be applied to just about any flop. Of course it's most profitable if we can push him off of everything that's not the top of his range. And yet we don't triple barrel every other pot, do we?

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This isn't every flop. It's one that didn't hit his defending range, and one that puts us in a spot to take quite a bit of money from an exploitable player. We also find out whether or not he'll go into hero mode against us, or if he shows up with certain parts of his range in larger pots, as information for later.

We can't look at this hand at face value (Oh it's AT and we didn't hit the flop, let's shut down.) Most full-ring players are nits. Let's not be a nit.

Put yourself in spots to win the most medium-sized pots you can, and your winrate will be monstrous. Also, remember that this is full-ring, and shear aggression will rarely, if ever, be exploited by your non-world-class villains.

Edit: I barreled the turn for $99 into whatever the pot was (I think it was ~2/3) and he folded.

vanquish said:

We can't look at this hand at face value (Oh it's AT and we didn't hit the flop, let's shut down.) Most full-ring players are nits. Let's not be a nit.

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I don't think controlling the pot with a hand that has showdown value is nitty. I'd like your play a lot more if you had something totally worthless, like J7o.

If you strongly feel that the flop has completely missed his range, then why do you even need to bet the turn, exposing yourself to a possible check-raise?

Chris_TC said:

I don't think controlling the pot with a hand that has showdown value is nitty. I'd like your play a lot more if you had something totally worthless, like J7o.

If you strongly feel that the flop has completely missed his range, then why do you even need to bet the turn, exposing yourself to a possible check-raise?

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Turn bets are believable! River bluffs are not.

Based on the situation you put yourself in I think you should bet 3/4ths pot -- full pot on the turn. Like you said you he willingly checked. With position I feel you should lean on him and make him make the tough decisions, like you said your range is wide. He could've just been testing you with that weak check raise out oop, or he could have actually had the draw, but I don't think thats for you to guess you need to bet a good size to find out because if you put him on anything he will call any weak bet to possibly make a play on you. If you check the turn he could easily bet into you on the river and your only options there are to check raise and to fold. You've got position and I say lean on him heavy one more time and you make him make the hard decision, because he still has to think what you'll do on the river and calling here without a superior hand oop is obviously not an option for him.

worst come to worse, your most likely going to get to see his hand at show down and you'll be able to set him up in the future off what you see at showdown


Edit: I posted this post before realizing what you did on the turn, and what i wrote above has nothing to do with the outcome of your hand

The thing about betting full pot, is that betting 2/3 pot will get him off the same range of hands as full pot, but it saves me money for when he has a hand.

yeah 2/3 is actually probably the best bet cus it gets the same job done and saves you money. I said 3/4 all the way up to pot based on how you would play the player. The range (3-4 up to pot) I said was pretty broad. When I think about it again I wouldve probably bet 3/5ths. I would say 3/5ths and 2/3rds are your best option and as far as the saving money part goes, I think 3/5ths probably gets the same job done there and saves you slightly more money there in the long run also. The difference is small, but 3/5ths and 2/3rds on the saving money tip probably over time makes a bigger difference on the level you play.

I know I put that broad range from 3-4ths to full pot, but I doubt I would ever bet full pot in a cash game on that level let alone pretty much any other level on the turn with absolutely nothing on that particular flop. I'd have to have probably a set or better on that flop. Thing is I haven't played a holdem cash game in at least a year or so I've been so wrapped up in omaha my judgement may have been skewed by that a little when I said that original range

I think you made arguably the best bet you could right there in that situation (2/3) only other argument like I said I think 3/5 pot could prolly work there also and save you a little more. The difference it saves you is so little though it is understandable if you could care less but it still counts realistically