400nl: AQ in 3-bet pot

This hand was a little peculiar. I was playing a mixture between 2/4 and 3/6, so when I played the hand I didn't even realize that I was 150BB deep instead of 100BB.
Villain was a 26/20/4.7, Attempt to Steal 38% over 110 hands.

Thoughts please?

poker stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

Hero (SB): $591.65 (147.9 bb)
BB: $500 (125 bb)
UTG: $400 (100 bb)
MP: $400 (100 bb)
CO: $809 (202.3 bb)
BTN: $406.70 (101.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Q A
2 folds, CO raises to $12, BTN folds, Hero raises to $44, BB folds, CO calls $32

Flop: ($92) 5 6 Q (2 players)
Hero bets $65, CO calls $65

Turn: ($222) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $164, Hero raises to $482.65 and is all-in

Chris_TC said:

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Q

A

2 folds, CO raises to $12, BTN folds, Hero raises to $44, BB folds, CO calls $32

Flop: ($92) 5

6

Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $65, CO calls $65

Turn: ($222) 7

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $164, Hero raises to $482.65 and is all-in

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I can think of 2 things that could be done differently:

1) Calling preflop should be an option. We're suited so we hit ~10% more flops. Additionally, villain's fold to 3-bet is probably high (like most TAGs) so we fold out a lot of his stealing range that we'd like to stick around. And lastly, we're deep, so he's getting set-mining odds even in a 3-bet pot, so we can't 3-bet to shut out small pairs. So if you realized that you were 150 deep, I really think calling is a good option that you should at least mix in if this guy is a reg you play with a lot. But if he folds to ~60% of 3-bets or less, I think this should be an insta 3-bet.

2) The turn beluga is pretty interesting. The turn puts more draws on the board, and the beluga really makes your range look very polarized. It'd be somewhat easy for villain to put us on a draw here, and given our "nuts or semi-bluff" beluga line, he might call with worse.

I think check/calling is pretty bad given how drawy the board is. Just sets us up to make ugly river mistakes. Bet/calling or bet/folding are okay, but it probably shuts out a lot of his floats. If we want to get all in vs. say KQ or JJ, then I think we should take the bluffiest/drawiest line possible and I think that's just what you did. But barreling the turn & shoving the river if all the draws miss is certainly fine too, but I just think check/jamming the turn gets value from the 1 or 2 odd floats in his range (plus he pretty much has to call with all his draws).

Nice Hand sir.

What was your thinking behind c-betting the flop? Are you protecting, what worse hands will call and is this the best way to get their money?

F Paulsson said:

What was your thinking behind c-betting the flop? Are you protecting, what worse hands will call and is this the best way to get their money?

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Standard value bet because he can call with weaker pairs, weaker Queens and all kinds of draws, let alone the fact that he's gonna float a fair amount.

Since we're 150BB deep, there's something to be said about controlling the pot, but this draw-heavy flop doesn't seem to be the right spot, do you disagree?

Chris_TC said:

Standard value bet because he can call with weaker pairs, weaker Queens and all kinds of draws, let alone the fact that he's gonna float a fair amount.

Since we're 150BB deep, there's something to be said about controlling the pot, but this draw-heavy flop doesn't seem to be the right spot, do you disagree?

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Draw-heavy? What range are you putting him on where draws will be a substantial portion of it?

I don't necessarily mind the bet, but I'm curious as to what range you think he has.

Chris_TC said:

Since we're 150BB deep, there's something to be said about controlling the pot, but this draw-heavy flop doesn't seem to be the right spot, do you disagree?

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Didn't pot control go out the window when we 3-bet OOP?

And FP, we can't check every flop.... but I agree, the board doesn't become drawy until the turn. However, since we're deeper, I think his range could be wider than just your standard AQ+/88+.

c9h13no3 said:

And FP, we can't check every flop....

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It's true that I often question c-bets. Your conclusion that I'm against c-bets in general is way off, though. I'm questioning c-bets because they're very often done without any kind of thought going into them.

So: I'm not saying that we shouldn't c-bet. But I don't think it's obviously the best play, and how we play the turn is obviously influenced by how we play the flop, ergo: We should have a plan before we bet the flop.

By betting the flop, we're playing for stacks. This is fine; I think being willing to play for stacks with TPTK in a 3-bet pot OOP is almost compulsory. But if we're thinking "I want to play for stacks" we should try to do it in the way that maximizes value. So if the plan when the flop came up was to bet the flop and CRAI the turn, then I love the flop bet. I think it's perfect. Especially if we occasionally do this with AK as well (which I do).

But if we bet the flop because "woo, top pair!" and then go "oh, he called" and then after the turn think "hmm, maybe I'm not best" and then "oh what the hell - ALLIN!" then I don't like it. Hence the question about the c-bet.

Sorry to interrupt this thread, but I ran into a new word here, and need to know how you folks are using the term 'beluga'.

Searching thru other usages here I think it might suggest a fish with a strong hand, and is a read (single ChuckT usage). Then c9 uses it a different way. Clarity will widen the scope of the audience.

Thx

Keeping in mind that I have NO experience at this level, let me ask a few other questions;

1- Is a VP of 26 at 6 max considered tight?

2 - If you had realized you were 150 bb, and did this, how would you have handled it were you only 100 bb? In other words, was this a dynamic decision at the moment, or you didn't realize your situation until sometime after your shove?

3 c9 mentions it become drawy on the turn. The way I read it, it became even more drawy on the turn. The 56Q flop was the str8 draw, the second suit on the turn increased the dangers to hero with the newly added flush draw. In my fishyness, I don't want to let villain draw cheap on the flop, and would have thought the big bet comes then.

Please correct me....

dj11 said:

I ran into a new word here, and need to know how you folks are using the term 'beluga'.

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Well, it generally just means a turn check/raise. Traditionally its against a fish who check/calls the flop, and check/raises the turn. But this is a similar thing since it looks so effing strong.

dj11 said:

1- Is a VP of 26 at 6 max considered tight?

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Its that kinda grey LAG/TAG area. Not tight, but I wouldn't consider it super loose either.

F Paulsson said:

Draw-heavy? What range are you putting him on where draws will be a substantial portion of it?

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Well, maybe not that draw-heavy, but there are plenty of weaker hands he's going to call with. He'll call a bet with diamonds, 77-JJ and hands like 68s or 78s. QK, QJ and QT are almost certainly in his range too.

c9h13no3 said:

However, since we're deeper, I think his range could be wider than just your standard AQ+/88+.

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It's always a little dangerous to make assumptions based on small sample sizes. But in general, I'd say that 26/20 players defend A LOT wider than 88+/AQ+ in steal vs. blinds situations, even 100BB deep.

F Paulsson said:

But if we bet the flop because "woo, top pair!" and then go "oh, he called" and then after the turn think "hmm, maybe I'm not best" and then "oh what the hell - ALLIN!" then I don't like it. Hence the question about the c-bet.

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Fortunately, I'm past the "oh what the hell" line of reasoning
In retrospect, I think betting the turn and calling a shove would have been a better line. If he now has a pair + straight draw or flush draw, he'll check it back a lot. However, if I bet out he's likely to jam those hands over the top.

My main question is: after I decide to check the turn, can I ever fold vs. his bet? Check/calling is out of the question imo because I don't know what rivers are good for me.
The problem is: he should almost never bet a weaker hand on this turn, except for maybe KQ. Then again, he's the type of player who'll likely float a lot, so folding TPTK to a turn bet seems strange.

Thoughts?

dj11 said:

2 - If you had realized you were 150 bb, and did this, how would you have handled it were you only 100 bb? In other words, was this a dynamic decision at the moment, or you didn't realize your situation until sometime after your shove?

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The hand would probably play out similarly 100BB deep, the difference being that it becomes a no-brainer stack-off. If you 3-bet AQs and flop top pair, you're pretty much obliged to stack off in almost all cases 100BB deep.

Since we're committed to stacking off if we're beat, it seems to me that the turn play is a decision between playing against a draw and playing against a pair. Betting out is good if you're afraid the draw will take a free card, although this will not always be the case. Check/raising would be best against a top pair or medium pocket pair. Or perhaps even check/calling might be best (repping a weaker middle pocket or a draw). I'm not super optimistic about getting a river bet even in that case though, and the check/raise is safer against the draws. So I think the turn play is good.

While I might want to see results here, this hand looks the same as many we encounter at all levels, and the results are not the important thing involved here. Rather it is (IMO) the timing. I still would have rather seen the shove on the flop. Your reputation is firm Chris, but when I make this move I'm running into the made hand.

At the micro mini levels I play, I freeze on that turn to the very possible str8 as well as the possible overpairs or 2 pair. The only thing that suggests this hand went in your favor, as I read it, is that villain here was not showing to be maniacal. With the 26% VP at 6 max he looks more to be just normally aggressive.

So, fresh questions;

-Is it normal at 400nl to be stacking this easy?

-Was your read such that during that session you could scare off the big stack, whose stats suggest solid

dj11 said:

but when I make this move I'm running into the made hand.

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Right, hence my afterthought of bet/calling the turn. I really think he'll rarely bet a weaker hand after I check and that I misplayed it.
I just don't know whether I can fold after I check to him and he bets? It seems... wrong.

At the micro mini levels I play, I freeze on that turn to the very possible str8 as well as the possible overpairs or 2 pair.

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2 pair was my biggest fear on that turn for sure. But it's not that easy to make 2 pair. Pair + straight draw is a much more likely holding - he should check this back though...

-Is it normal at 400nl to be stacking this easy?

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Depends on the opponent. I wouldn't stack it against a 16/10. I wouldn't 3-bet it preflop either.

-Was your read such that during that session you could scare off the big stack, whose stats suggest solid

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I don't understand the question, can you rephrase please?

I'll give results. He had 6h7h.

-Was your read such that during that session you could scare off the big stack, whose stats suggest solid?

Rephrases as;

Did you have a read that suggested he would fold to your pressure? You of course don't know he has 2 pair on the turn, and seem to be betting he specifically doesn't have 2 pair or better. Or even KK or better. So was this a specific read on a specific player at a specific instant that let you make this decision?

No, I didn't have a specific read. I just assumed that he'd have enough floats and (combo)draws in his range. I hadn't played much with him.