Originally Posted by Poker_play
I actually kinda like it..if I'm villain and I have aa, I think river is a shove. I mean its an effective bluff vs the top of hero range (ie qq), which alone is a good move. Imo. But its a valuebet vssome of heros bluffcatching range (id say aq or any k? Being at the bottom of that. I know initial thought is prolly no way hero calls with worse than aa..but are you sure? If hero calls this bluff with qq hero should call it with ak..were not putting villain on anything in between.
sorry if that makes no sense..my mind was all over the place while tanked.
Q: if you're villain and you hit your j10 or kk, is shoving the obv move or do you go for value?
Cause tbh if he minraises to 1600 with nuts..I probably tank calll just because I got odds
But to be fair shoving does polarize his range more and tempts me to herocall...
Regarding your question...
If I'm villain, because stacks are so deep, I definitely ship JT..maybe... KK also. Going for value is nice but I like money and I imagine I'm going to get my shove called here a fair % of the time. I think the shove makes more money in the long run since we are so deep.
As far as the hand in question... If you get inside villain's head a little bit. If you he is a thinking player, he might play a draw that way.
Consider this. Lets say he does have JT. If he checks the turn, basically any turn bet which you will make, will give him the incorrect odds to call.
Plus, if it goes check-check on the turn and he hits on the river, it's harder to get an entire stack in because the pot is inherently smaller. You are the only person at the table with a stack that big AND you announced you were leaving. That means villain can't win $4k anymore after you leave.
So, he leads the turn because it guarantees a bigger pot by the river, tries to seize the initiative, and unless you make a huge raise, it is giving him much closer to the right odds to call with his OESD as opposed to say check/calling a turn PSB.
Second, when he leads the turn, he can effectively check the river with a bigger probability that you will barrel the river because you raised the turn.
Just food for thought because I've made similar plays before where I didn't want to c/c a 2/3 or PSB on the turn. But I've done this vs villains I have a ton of history with because that line looks kinda funky for a player like myself. So, sometimes they make the mistake of paying me off.
If it's a horrible play and you guys lol at it. So be it. hahaha