Originally Posted by WossaPotOddz
Let's assume a 4bet induces a push/fold policy with 2 villains.
Now let's pull some numbers out our asses.
First instance - 70% of the time we take the 12 big blinds in the pot when our 4bet is followed by double fold.
Second instance - 15% the button shoves his KK+/AK range (125BB's deep this might not be the line villain takes)
Third instance - 15% the SB shoves his KK+/AK range.
From 10 hands played...
First instance we earn 84 BB's
Second instance we lose 37.5 BB's
Third instances we lose 30 BB's
Total +16.5 BB's
Obv this is just 1 example but you can fiddle with the numbers to suit your personal ranges here. The 4bet/fold/fold % has to be about 65% to justify 4bet/call V's the KK+/AK range.
you realize that their shoving range is wider than what you said? this is 400nl, both of the villains are thinking aggro players, I think they know that vanq is a thinking player also and is capable of 4 betting light which in this spot to be honest 4 betting 72 would be a good play, getting totally off topic but I seen this a while back, was playing some mtts and at the same time decided to rail johnnybax, he is a really good mtt player for those who don't know, anyways he raises from CO, Button 3 bets and SB 4 bets, some of you may think SB has AA for sure, nope both Bax and some other well known mtt pro folded and SB showed 72, probably the sickest play I have seen in an mtt, there are not many occasions where you can do this, but realizing that bax is super aggro in position which the button knows and he is 3 betting light, but when the sb 4 bets, that looks super strong, and i believe button said he folded QQ. Now that's what I call playing the player and not your cards.
this is kind of a same concept, button with a decent stack raises super wide, sb with a huge 3betting % from the sb reraises, I think we have the best hand here so often that 4 betting here is for value and if they show up with AA/KK then we just got super unlucky.
EDIT: and tbh I would 4bet here with probably any two cards if both of the villains are regs that I will play a lot of metagame purposes, if they shove and I fold, they will know that I'm capable of 4 betting light and stack off lighter vs me because they expect me to be capable of making big bluffs. Also they may start 4 betting my 3 bets lighter thinking I'm a nit.