Originally Posted by LeGenie
Hi guys I played an interesting hand yesterday and would like some feedback on the way I approached the hand.
Hero opens to $15 UTG holding 8<font color='black'>♠</font> 8<font color='red'>♦</font> UTG+1, MP2, CO, and Villain in the BB call.
The flop comes: 4<font color='black'>♠</font> 5<font color='red'>♦</font> 6<font color='red'>♥</font> $76 in pot
Villain checks. Hero bets $50. UTG+1 and MP2 fold. The CO and BB both call.
The turn brings an 8<font color='red'>♥</font> $226 in pot
Villain in the BB leads out for $100. Hero calls. The CO folds. Calling here appeared to be the best option as raising would only get 7x type hands to call.
The river brings a Q<font color='red'>♥</font> $426 in pot
Villain shoves all-in for his remaining $292. Hero???
Villain is a regular loose aggressive fish who plays a very wide range of hands, chases draws, and bluffs occasionally. Villain's turn lead seems as if he is protecting his straight against back door draws. Moreover, given that I am only getting approx 1.5 to 1 I didn't feel like villain would bluff 40% of the time in this spot.
Thanks in advance guys!!!!
It's hard to put him on a bluff. Really, the only hand that could make sense if you are beating anything is Q6 and he's shoving light thinking his two pair hand is better than your JJ+, or he flopped a set of 4s, 5s, 6s. And even that's a bit of a stretch. Although it could be some leveling stuff - try to make it look like it's a bluff when it's actually a set of 4s.
But let's say it's a lower set. There's only 12 of those combinations. There's way more combinations of 7x and heart-heart holdings that overcall from the blinds. So if it is for value you are very likely behind. You're really not much better in this spot than with pocket tens.
It's hard to call the turn bet a protection bet considering he then puts his whole stack in on the river when the flush gets there. So either he semi-bluffed the turn and then got there, or he is air-balling in a multi-way pot. The other clue is that you bet 50 into 75 on the flop (2/3). He's betting 100 into 226, which is less than 1/2. To me, I think the logic here is that he wants to see a river and gets there cheaper if he leads out rather than calling a bigger bet from you - and remember, he probably doesn't have you on a set of 8s. He's probably got you on an over pair.
All things considered, I think he thinks he had a lot of potential to improve and wanted to see that river. And he got there. If you think what he got there with, it's most likely suited overs.