$400 NLHE Full Ring: lol sucker

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Poker_play

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Playing $2/5 at my local table..bought in for $500, up to $3k..run good , play good (i think?). Dealt 8 9 spades in middle position. Villian is a guy taking a shot...a $1/2 reg who had a good day at $1/2 I'm assuming (he was ther earlier)...playing see-thru ABC poker all night. TAG player. That said, he's up to $1500..flipped over AA and KK after playing them exactly like AA and KK lol.
Villain UTG makes it $30..one caller from MP..I make it $90. Both call. Flop 6s 7s 3c. Villain makes it $150...MP folds..Hero calls. Turn 3d. Villain makes it $250...Hero calls. River Ah. Villain puts on his best poker face...reaches for chips..thinks it over...says "FML" all over it. Villain checks.
LOL
Hero?
 
sixpeppers

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You are the preflop raiser and flat call this flop to a donk lead? This is a clear raise situation, if you don't raise the flop raise the turn and yes if he checks the river bet it to rep the ace. IMO this hand plays itself except for the preflop 3bet, I don't hate it but need to know more about stack sizes and what 6x UTG means, I still may do it even if its a strongish range but from the info you gave me its up in the air. I think there is tons of fold equity with your OESFD and you are likely an equity favorite when called, meaning that raising is guaranteed to be +EV and I believe it to be more +_EV than calling.
 
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Interesting. I was expecting to get killed for the 89s re-raise.
6x UTG was pretty standard..he opened with a raise everytime he was in the hand. I'd give him 77+, ATs+, KJs+. If he reraises me pre it clearly labels AA or KK, then I'd just have to do the odds accordingly and decide whether to call.
His donk flop bet..IMO can't be a set nor just protecting overcards. I'm putting him on 88-QQ.
I considered raising on every street, but found mysellfin valuetown with that awesome flop. If I have him clearly on 88-QQ..is it more +EV to call, hit and go to valuetown? Or raise, where he either folds (putting me on AA/KK) or goes over the top....I thought call was more +EV, considering the possibilities on later streets.
 
hackmeplz

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Pre flat is probably better but not a huge deal to 3b. But yeah raise flop and as played I'm assuming he's got QQ/KK or w/e and probably bet enough to make those fold. If he was good and/or not shot-taking I think it's a pretty easy check though.
 
xdeucesx

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why not raise flop?

you have insane equity vs just about any hand

flatting flop/turn is just bad imo, but as played, bet river if your so sure villain has nothing.
 
tenbob

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God above, how did you get yourself into such a spot. (raise flop) Reverse tells are so common anymore, just check behind and thank yourself when you realise that yove saved yourself a $500 river bet, that would prob be snapped.

FYI, no reg , no decent reg, feins weakness without it being super strong. Oh and the 3 bet pre vs this villans UTG range is insane.
 
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Wow I'm surprised that you guys see not raising flop as such a mistake. I definitely considered it but thought call/call/checkraise if I hit was a slightly better line. Its definitely a +EV line because I have enough outs to play it like that. IMO raising flop and having to call his shove is the only line I didn't want to run into...especially given I have a solid read on him/he isn't likely to make any crazy moves
 
JusSumguy

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Wow I'm surprised that you guys see not raising flop as such a mistake. I definitely considered it but thought call/call/checkraise if I hit was a slightly better line. Its definitely a +EV line because I have enough outs to play it like that. IMO raising flop and having to call his shove is the only line I didn't want to run into...especially given I have a solid read on him/he isn't likely to make any crazy moves

FYI, no reg , no decent reg, feins weakness without it being super strong. Oh and the 3 bet pre vs this villains UTG range is insane.

Did you read Tenbob's post?

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..why is 3bet pre insane? I play aton of $2/5 and get away with that type of play a lot...+EV. I get its not tag play and id never do it on micros...but the only way its awful on that tbl is if he flops set or has AA/KK.

I agreee that id check behind any strong reg on the river..this obviously a little different cause villain is taking a shot and relatively easy to read. I read his flop and turn bets as 88-KK
 
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Wow I'm surprised that you guys see not raising flop as such a mistake. I definitely considered it but thought call/call/checkraise if I hit was a slightly better line. Its definitely a +EV line because I have enough outs to play it like that. IMO raising flop and having to call his shove is the only line I didn't want to run into...especially given I have a solid read on him/he isn't likely to make any crazy moves
What's wrong with raising and calling his shove? I think if at the flop you have him on 88-QQ, an ABC villain is folding like close to 50% of his range to a raise on the flop. Add that FE to your outs, you are raising in a spot where you have a TON of equity. Plus, if you call the flop and turn you are basically saying, "let me catch my cards and value-raise" but if villain really is ABC like you say, there aren't any implied odds after you hit.

In other words:

1) 50% of the time, you raise villain folds. instant +EV.

2) 50% of the time, he doesn't fold (assume he shoves). Against his entire range, you have the same equity. You pick up his entire stack close to 60% of the time.

3) If you decide to take a c/c/c-r line, you really only win 2 small bets. And you only win 2 small bets 60% of the time. The EV isn't big enough to overcome the previous 3 examples because you don't get anymore money when you hit. I'm assuming ABC villain isn't spewing chips when the board is really wet.

Raise flop.
 
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^^thanks, good analysis.
I find that 3betting preflop with hands like these often throws opponents off (as they put me on the wrong range now), allowing me to get paid if I hit a turn or river here. Especially if the river is a 5 or a 10..even a small spade I could probably get a good bet off. I think you're giving him too much credit if you give me no implied odds (he won't c/f any 5, 10 or spade lol). That's really all speculation though..I see why you say raise flop.
In this case, river (Ah) was clearly in what he thought was my range...I forget the river bet, but it was good enough to force a laydown.
 
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^^thanks, good analysis.
I find that 3betting preflop with hands like these often throws opponents off (as they put me on the wrong range now), allowing me to get paid if I hit a turn or river here. Especially if the river is a 5 or a 10..even a small spade I could probably get a good bet off. I think you're giving him too much credit if you give me no implied odds (he won't c/f any 5, 10 or spade lol). That's really all speculation though..I see why you say raise flop.
In this case, river (Ah) was clearly in what he thought was my range...I forget the river bet, but it was good enough to force a laydown.
Ya, you are right to say that he never gives us value on the river isn't correct because nothing in poker is absolute. But, we are trying to guesstimate whether we can get more value by raising the flop compared to value-raising the river, right?

Consider this.. Let's say villain will call a 1/2 PSB on the river 50% and fold 50%. He will call this bet regardless of the card on the river.

Pot is: $845. (round it to 844 so I can divide by 2. lol)

Also assume max equity from the flop, which is ~60%.

60% of the time, you get $422, 40% of the time, you lose $422. I use these numbers because 60% from the flop we will be there by the river. And 40% of the time, we aren't.

Our EV is $85. So our physical bet on the river makes us $85.

For the entire pot: EV is $253.2 (759-506)

Now on the flop, assume that he will shove 50% of the time:

After you call his shove, the pot will be $3,270. You win 60% and lose 40%

Getting it in yields and EV of $654. But, you only get $654 50% of the time. The other 50% of the time you win instantly when he folds. So, $327 + times he folds > $253.

My calculations might be off.. as I'm doing this on the fly. My point is though, you asked about the most EV line. I'm trying to illustrate that the most EV is gained from the line you were trying to avoid. Because of that, it was a mistake, even if we can get value on the river. In order to really get value, you have to assume villain will stack off on the river. Which seems unlikely, given the range you give him. Thus, the reason why I made my assumption of villain NOT giving us value on the river.

If I messed something up, let me know, I haven't done the maths in my head in a long time! lol
 
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haha thanks again. I have been out of touch with online poker for a while now..haven't had my PT handy..good to hear this analysis!
It looks like the only way my line is better, especially considering that he probably folds on the flop, is if I'm getting great value on the river bet ..i.e., stacking him off. Not something I can count on.
That said, sorry to bother you..we might have to recrunch those ##s again. I think considering he bet $150 and $250 on the flop and turn, you're selling me way short by giving me a $422 bet only 50% of the time. I think he leads out with a 400sh bet close to 70-80% of the time if he still has an overpair. The only reason he checked on the river is because that was the one card he didn't want to see. He's rarely going to call a raise on the river though so it probably doesn't affect the numbers enough to make this a better line then raising on the flop.
So yeah, you're right. Though all the ##'s above don't account for what actually happened..me winning with an Ace on the river lol, woohoo.
 
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brank

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grunching...

The 3 bet pre hurts my head. UTG raise in a live game is usually pretty strong.from a TAG who's, " playing see-thru ABC poker all night" as you say.
 
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Lol. If it helps he raised pre in every hand he was involved in. If he calls pre I like my spot on most flops after. If he raises again, eh, I've done dumber things w 90 bux lol
 
xdeucesx

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Lol. If it helps he raised pre in every hand he was involved in. If he calls pre I like my spot on most flops after. If he raises again, eh, I've done dumber things w 90 bux lol

it's not the fact that he raised

its where he raised from
 
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Raise from UTG=strong, I get it. From his view though..raising UTG then getting 3bet by someone very deepstack..not such a great spot for him. Unless of course he's holding AA or KK, which should become apparent right then.
I can come out +EV vs most hands in his range if played right.
 
JusSumguy

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Lol. If it helps he raised pre in every hand he was involved in

Most good players never enter a pot without a raise. And they wait for good hands to do it.

This is not a positive tell to me. It's a danger sign.

-
 
brank

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I kind of doubt that you're ever +ev to 3 bet here but I'd like it if you could try to prove it somehow. I dont know the table dynamics, what your table image is at the time or what part of their UTG range you think they are capable of folding to a 3 bet.

It is kind of a squeeze play so you do have that going for you. The fact that they call means that you're either fairly LAG or they are kinda bad imo.

If he raises again, eh, I've done dumber things w 90 bux lol

lawl, so true.
 
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Brank..trying to prove that could take all day! lol far too many variables.
IE..89s vs TT. He raises, I 3bet, he calls. How do I account for Axx and Kxx flops where cbetting takes it down most of the time? Obviously just face-up 89s is way behind any calling range that I'd put villain on.
IMO these situations are far more about images, skill level, etc. then actual hand values most of the time, so no way I can just plug ##s in. Especially 300bb deep on $2/5 table..what are the odds of us going to showdown there?? I generally fare well in those situations so I welcome them. So until someone proves otherwise I'm thinking 3betting 89s, of course sparingly, is +EV
And yes, I'm fairly LAG
 
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Brank..trying to prove that could take all day! lol far too many variables.
IE..89s vs TT. He raises, I 3bet, he calls. How do I account for Axx and Kxx flops where cbetting takes it down most of the time? Obviously just face-up 89s is way behind any calling range that I'd put villain on.
IMO these situations are far more about images, skill level, etc. then actual hand values most of the time, so no way I can just plug ##s in. Especially 300bb deep on $2/5 table..what are the odds of us going to showdown there?? I generally fare well in those situations so I welcome them. So until someone proves otherwise I'm thinking 3betting 89s, of course sparingly, is +EV
And yes, I'm fairly LAG

Although many people seem to disagree with the 3bet, I don't think it's that bad if you consider OP's logic. If OP really has a handle on villain, it's easy for the OP to understand how he plays his range. From what I understand, I think OP thinks 3betting light there is +EV because this particular villain will only push back with KK+. (If we assume his UTG range had 99+ for example) Everything else relatively strong (99/TT+) he flats. And he is saying with that range of 99-QQ, he can push him off a lot of it.


Think about it this way. Villain's UTG raise could rep top 10%. AA/KK make up a minority of his range. If OP can push him off whenever he doesn't have AA/KK, that means the majority of the time, he can push him off.

IF that's possible, I agree, its +EV.

But I have to say, OP, if you can do that, then hats off to you. Cause I think it would be really tough. Especially if you have a LAG image. Plus there are so many other variables. You are 3betting from MP. So there is could be action behind you, etc.
 
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