$400 NLHE Full Ring: live

daxter70

daxter70

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$400 NL HE Full Ring: live

Q 10 sooted in BB..7 player limped pot

flop Q99

UTG +1 bet 10$ (400$ behind), MP calls (130$ behind), i call (310$ behind)

pot 65$

turn 9,
i ck, UTG +1 ck, MP bets 35$, i call, +1 min raisies 35$, MP calls 35$, i call 35$

pot 275$

river is Q

i ck..+1 moves allin for 300$ish, MP calls last 60$..

??????????:eek:
 
Stu_Ungar

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Personaly I think you are best here or splitting the pot with QJ / QT

UG and MP limp preflop more often with small PP.

UTG+1 looks like he is being a little too agressive to have you beat. Flop just looks like a small c-bet with a flopped 2 pair. Turn looks like he is feeling eveyone out. If he had a Q or a 9 he would be flat calling hoping someone would bluff shove rather than rocking the boat with his min raise.

On the river he feels that his FH is best and shoves.

MP is the person most likely (if any to have you beat) but its only $60.



https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/yeti-theorem-floating-89045/

http://captzeebo.supok.net/2006-02-12.html
 
slycbnew

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I can't find a fold here with the second nuts after committing almost 30% of our stack, but I'm not happy. One or the other has to be bluffing (any pp) in order to chop, and both have to be bluffing to win outright.

Here's a shot at the math, someone who's better at this, please correct it if I botched it:

$134 (MP's stack) + $84 (Hero's money already in the pot) + $314 (UTG+1 effective stack relative to Hero's) + $16 (limpers pf) = $548 opportunity for $130 (Hero's stack remaining), better than 4:1 for an outright win (i.e., both are bluffing - I find this hard to believe)

UTG+1 has the nuts - $0 return

MP has the nuts, UTG+1 has Qx - MP gets 3 x $134 = $402, Hero gets $138, roughly 1:1

MP has the nuts, UTG+1 is bluffing - MP gets $402, Hero gets $276

MP has Qx, UTG+1 is bluffing - Hero gets $360 side pot + $159 chopped main pot

UTG+1 has Qx, MP is bluffing - Hero gets $339

Reads would help here, if any - i.e., MP is a tilting moron who just lost a stack and re-bought short, UTG+1 is ultra aggressive and limps AA from EP, etc. As long as we believe UTG+1 would not bet the flop w trip 9's (like Stu, I'd assume this without contrary reads), we need to call imo.
 
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switch0723

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you can prob fold flop, because your never going to be in fun spots on later streets. Turn you should probably sigh fold to turn raise, definately fold to river shove
 
daxter70

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sigh....fold preflop in the BB to an uraised pot..LMAO..ok
 
vanquish

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yea i like folding flop, otherwise i guess you have to call river but i'm in no way happy about any of it
 
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i dont mind the flop call but imo you are always up against a nine here and most likely the other q is out as well. i dont think that calling for a chop is optimal either the minraise coupled with the goofy play of the shortstack seems to me as if you always crushed
 
slycbnew

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i dont think that calling for a chop is optimal either the minraise coupled with the goofy play of the shortstack seems to me as if you always crushed

That's why I did the math above. Unless UTG+1 has 9x, it makes sense to call I think - unless my math is in error (a very strong possibility...).
 
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switch0723

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mp1 could also be a tool and could have like kings or aces here which have been played really badly and hes just shoving river thinking well its statistically impossible for anyone to have a 9, but you don't beat those hands either
 
Stu_Ungar

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mp1 could also be a tool and could have like kings or aces here which have been played really badly and hes just shoving river thinking well its statistically impossible for anyone to have a 9, but you don't beat those hands either


You do beat them

You have QQQ99

They have 999AA
 
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switch0723

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oh snap, i didnt even look at the river card, just assumed it was a blank, ye its definately a river fold then if river is a queen, since there aren't enough queens in th deck for everyone to have, 1 of the villains always always has a 9 here, most likely utg + 1
 
Stu_Ungar

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Do you not think that Zeebo's therom kicks in .. that noone can fold a FH and that the shove could easily be a bluff where the raiser thinks.. well most of the time they will either fold or We'll split the pot??
 
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switch0723

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no, live players don't give credit to other players for knowing theorems. Based on the action on turn aswell, is not really zeebo on the basis that the pot has been built before the river, so it isn't really an overbet shove. On the basis that we aren't given any reads, i'm pretty close to certain that mp has a queen, we have the other queen, so there is no logical hand for utg to have except for a 9
 
vanquish

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no, live players don't give credit to other players for knowing theorems. Based on the action on turn aswell, is not really zeebo on the basis that the pot has been built before the river, so it isn't really an overbet shove. On the basis that we aren't given any reads, i'm pretty close to certain that mp has a queen, we have the other queen, so there is no logical hand for utg to have except for a 9

yea except it's live poker and the guy could have any random FH he fell in love with (such as AA) that he's sticking around river with because it's lol live poker.
 
daxter70

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yeah..sorry switch..i read ur post as preflop not flop..my bad.

and i went into the tank on this one, and +1 is a solid player, and i went back to an aussie millions show where antonius had 108 and lengren AK and board 888Ax and antonius shoved...

lengren had to call, and eventually did.

and i eventually did too, and +1 turns over J9 and MP turns KQ...:eek:

so i went to bed..but i was only in for 90 and had built up to 300ish. havent played since cept online, but probably jump back in the waters this w/e.
 
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switch0723

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i'm pretty close to certain that mp has a queen, we have the other queen, so there is no logical hand for utg to have except for a 9

and i eventually did too, and +1 turns over J9 and MP turns KQ...:eek:

yes, that is 1 of the very few times i've said 'i'm pretty close to certain' and been right
 
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