I can't find a fold here with the second nuts after committing almost 30% of our stack, but I'm not happy. One or the other has to be bluffing
(any pp) in order to chop, and both have to be bluffing to win outright.
Here's a shot at the math, someone who's better at this, please correct it if I botched it:
$134 (MP's stack) + $84 (Hero's money already in the pot) + $314 (UTG+1 effective stack relative to Hero's) + $16 (limpers pf) = $548 opportunity for $130 (Hero's stack remaining), better than 4:1 for an outright win (i.e., both are bluffing - I find this hard to believe)
UTG+1 has the nuts - $0 return
MP has the nuts, UTG+1 has Qx - MP gets 3 x $134 = $402, Hero gets $138, roughly 1:1
MP has the nuts, UTG+1 is bluffing - MP gets $402, Hero gets $276
MP has Qx, UTG+1 is bluffing - Hero gets $360 side pot + $159 chopped main pot
UTG+1 has Qx, MP is bluffing - Hero gets $339
Reads would help here, if any - i.e., MP is a tilting moron who just lost a stack and re-bought short, UTG+1 is ultra aggressive and limps AA from EP, etc. As long as we believe UTG+1 would not bet the flop w trip 9's (like Stu, I'd assume this without contrary reads), we need to call imo.