$400 NLHE Full Ring: LAG'n..OESD + FD

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Poker_play

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Live 2/5

Hero dealt 6s7s on BTN. MP limps, Hero makes it $20, BB raises to 55, mp folds, hero calls.

Flop 8s8d3s.

Villain bets 60..hero makes it 150. Villain tank, calls.

Turn 5d.

Villain checks. Hero?

Hero's got 1700, villain around 1500. Villain plays very tight pre, very face up after flop..typical live tagfish id say, so I felt I could play this profitably postflop. I can pretty confidently give him jj+, aqs+ preflop.

Villain cbets close to 100%, so I thought I had decent FE by raising flop.

Should hero barrel or see a free card?

What's the plan for river if we miss? If we hit?
 
JCgrind

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Live 2/5

Hero dealt 6s7s on BTN. MP limps, Hero makes it $20, BB raises to 55, mp folds, hero calls.

Flop 8s8d3s.

Villain bets 60..hero makes it 150. Villain tank, calls.

Turn 5d.

Villain checks. Hero?

Hero's got 1700, villain around 1500. Villain plays very tight pre, very face up after flop..typical live tagfish id say, so I felt I could play this profitably postflop. I can pretty confidently give him jj+, aqs+ preflop.

Villain cbets close to 100%, so I thought I had decent FE by raising flop.

Should hero barrel or see a free card?

What's the plan for river if we miss? If we hit?

i like bet turn shove river if you think itll work. im not sure youre getting enough folds though. if you brick it, by my calcs you need folds roughly 60% of the time if you bet like $250 on turn and ship river.

knowing you, i also think you can quite easily rep an 8 here so it might well work. villain prone to calling you down?
 
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Really tough one. Depends really on what kind of tagfish he is. I know a ton of guys like this who can never fold an overpair here. They never get out of line preflop and will flat raises with QQ/AK but just can't fold their good hands postflop. Basically the key to stacking this guy is to crack their big hands, which of course is tough to do.

If he's the type that has MUBS then I'd barrel and shove all rivers.

Edit: Also depends heavily on what villain's view of hero is.
 
JCgrind

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Really tough one. Depends really on what kind of tagfish he is. I know a ton of guys like this who can never fold an overpair here. They never get out of line preflop and will flat raises with QQ/AK but just can't fold their good hands postflop. Basically the key to stacking this guy is to crack their big hands, which of course is tough to do.

If he's the type that has MUBS then I'd barrel and shove all rivers.

Edit: Also depends heavily on what villain's view of hero is.

ive only ever played 1/2 and 2/3 live and from my experience, overpairs dont fold virtually ever. not sure about your games
 
Jillychemung

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Fire two more barrels and then say 'Quads' after he calls and hope he mucks before you have to show.

^^^ Recent attempt to angle shoot from my local card room :eek:
 
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Jchoop..I like fire turn shove river as well.

He seems like a decent, thiinking player who wouldn't stack off 3 BI's that light..on a paired board vs hero who clearly has 8s in his range still..but a lot of players do till you see them in action with aa or kk lol.

Yeah baudib, scares the crap out of me that he might herocall just cause he can't let it go. Not sure if this villain is that type, this is my first session w him and he hasn't done anything out of line yet, tho he has indicated (but didn't show) that he laid down good hands in toughh spots.

Lol jilly I've seen that exact scam, the guy got his opponent to fold then tabled air and took down the pot. Did your guy win pot too?
 
Jillychemung

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Lol jilly I've seen that exact scam, the guy got his opponent to fold then tabled air and took down the pot. Did your guy win pot too?

No silly young kid picked the wrong guy to try it on.
 
c9h13no3

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Seems like an obvious turn to check. There's no way villain folds JJ or anything he calls the flop with OOP to a turn barrel on an essentially blank turn. But it seems like everyone in this thread is arguing that we should try to get an ABC bad live player to fold an overpair on a dry board.

Am I missing something?
 
Jillychemung

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How do you think the villain would describe your image? Would villain even notice? Your play is repping that you have 8x or the FD, if you had flopped a boat or quads most villains would expect you to just call the flop bet and give villain a chance to bet the turn also. The turn card changes nothing.

If villain has a good chance to not get away from a big overpair then check the turn and hope to hit your 30%er.

If villain can laydown an overpair then barrel the turn but you'll have to play it up as an 8x not liking the spades so almost pot sized bet.
 
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Lol c9/joebob I get what you're saying, this is not the ideal villain to be bluffing..but it isn't nearly as black and white as you're making it imo.

Check turn makes it pretty hard for us to get good value if we bink (especially a spade). Pretty transparent play on our part. And we obv have no fe on river then..we're checkin if we miss. So I'm down to winning what's in the middle around 30% of the time.

On the other hand, there's definitely a good chance villain folds on a paired board if I keep firing. I see it all the time..where villain flats flop cause its relatively cheap but it takes another barrel or 2 to convince villain you really havethe 8. Villain tankking flop and checking turn is a good indication that he's unsure and probably wants to get there cheap. Also..assuming its qq-99, an ace or king probably gives me pot on my river barrel.

Also strictly from a value standpoint, by firing turn..if I get called and he is indeed stuck to his overpair..there's a ton more value to be had on the river if I hit.

I understand it generally isn't profitable to bluff into a brick wall, but is there any merit to that line of thinking?
 
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baudib1

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Assuming he never pays you off when you make your hand and assuming you always win when you get there, he has to fold close to half the time for a turn bet to be profitable.

If he's stationing and will call when you make your hand, which is probably more likely on a straight than a flush, then the odds you need for your turn semibluff to work go down obviously.
 
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If the above math is true I like turn bet. I feel like my flop raise being flatted didn't mean much. But if I barrel 250-300 on turn, he's either folding his ak/99-qq which I recon will be the case often, or I can establish he's not going anywhere/I will get paid if I hit.
 
-Phil Ivey27

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Looks to me like your only information about this guy is that he definitely has 99+ here, for all you know he could have AA. Worst case scenario he has your spades crushed and has AQs.

These hands are nearly always calling a turn bet, even a strong bet such as $300, making it very unprofitable.

You can't hate a check here, your 30% to most likely make the best hand and you can definitely value bet river if he chooses to check for some reason.

If you miss, then you shutdown. You have a big hand here but you are definitely looking for a fold, and i'm not sure you can get it here. Picking a very marginal spot
 
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Bet $400 and say, "Don't call with a flush draw."
 
c9h13no3

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I'm not sure if villain thinks on this level, but your implied odds should be very good if you check the turn because:

1) Villain has a strong range (hence why we're not bluffing).
2) We can easily bluff/raise the flop with a range wider than flush draws (overcard hands), and a flush coming in on the river is a great card for these hands to bluff.
3) Flushes are typically less likely in 3-bet pots, and our opponents are more willing to stack 1 pair hands in a 3-bet pot.
4) We have disguised non-flush outs that will almost always get paid.

Add that to the fact that checking is about +150ish in EV even if we have no implied odds, and betting is looking kinda silly.
 
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most of the times i'll be betting the turn given your line. 98 or 87 suited are definite possible hands in your range given your preflop line, and betting the turn gives u fold equity and a more believable river bluff bet should u need it. add that to the fact that if u do hit and make the best hand, the pot's juiced up enough for u to value on the river.
 
Deco

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I bet the turn and check the river.

Betting the turn is close, there isn't much fold equity but our implied odds are incredible and it's live you will see some strange hands other than big overpairs from time to time we can fold.

Checking the river isn't close. At this point villain defo has an overpair, be arsed trying to get it to fold if we brick.
 
hackmeplz

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If we don't bet this turn that makes the flop raise pretty bad.
 
bgomez89

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What do we accomplish by betting the turn? He's not folding..
 
hackmeplz

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What do we accomplish by betting the turn? He's not folding..

If we think he can fold river, we set up the river bluff as well as creating more dead money to win.

If we think he calls rivers sometimes when FD hits we build a bigger pot so we can get a lot more of his money when we hit. The only reason we shouldn't bet would be if we think he calls river shoves on blanks and folds when we hit. That's actually semi-possible but imo he's calling a lot on rivers regardless. I'm not a fan of the flop raise but once we turn that good I think betting in order to make the pot bigger and the river mistake bigger when he makes it (we give up when we miss so he only calls against our nutted hands) is pretty big.
 
c9h13no3

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If we think he can fold river, we set up the river bluff as well as creating more dead money to win.
Betting to setup a river bluff puts insanely high odds required in order to profit off our bluff. And the second argument is just retarded if we lose more than we win.

Idk, this seems straight forward to me. If you have fold equity, you bluff. If you have implied odds, you draw. We have very little FE and great implied odds. Stop making this harder than it is.
 
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Still not sure what best turn move is, I see both options as +EV, the variable being..do we have FE?

Hero bet $275 on turn, villain tank, does a lot of chip counting/looking at pot size, calls.

River 4s.

Villain tank-shoves

Que?

Was he drawing too? Fml lol

Hero?
 
JCgrind

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Still not sure what best turn move is, I see both options as +EV, the variable being..do we have FE?

Hero bet $275 on turn, villain tank, does a lot of chip counting/looking at pot size, calls.

River 4s.

Villain tank-shoves

Que?

Was he drawing too? Fml lol

Hero?

This looks airy as shit to me. likely that he's trying to get you off the 8 he thinks you have, as I assume he knows that you're capable of making big folds.
Iono, I haven't played that high live but from my experience at 1/2 & 2/3 people don't like 3bing pre ESP when they're gunna be OOP throughout the hand unless they have a big pair. I suppose AKs would play like this both pre and post, but vil is pretty bad to bet/call check/tankcall donk shove with a flush wouldn't you say?
His line makes no sense to me and consequently im pretty sure I'm calling, but I'm wrong a ton when I do this lol. What are his 3bing range look like?
Like the only hand I can see him playing like this is hollywooding quads lol. Very curios to know what he had
 
hackmeplz

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Betting to setup a river bluff puts insanely high odds required in order to profit off our bluff. And the second argument is just retarded if we lose more than we win.

Idk, this seems straight forward to me. If you have fold equity, you bluff. If you have implied odds, you draw. We have very little FE and great implied odds. Stop making this harder than it is.

Sorry but you're wrong. If we bet turn expecting him to call such that we can bet river expecting him to fold this doesn't require better odds at all because we also get extra money from his turn call.

Idk, this seems straight forward to me. Stop making this harder than it is.
 
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