Lol c9/joebob I get what you're saying, this is not the ideal villain to be bluffing
..but it isn't nearly as black and white as you're making it imo.
Check turn makes it pretty hard for us to get good value if we bink (especially a spade). Pretty transparent play on our part. And we obv have no fe on river then..we're checkin if we miss. So I'm down to winning what's in the middle around 30% of the time.
On the other hand, there's definitely a good chance villain folds on a paired board if I keep firing. I see it all the time..where villain flats flop cause its relatively cheap but it takes another barrel or 2 to convince villain you really havethe 8. Villain tankking flop and checking turn is a good indication that he's unsure and probably wants to get there cheap. Also..assuming its qq-99, an ace or king probably gives me pot on my river barrel.
Also strictly from a value standpoint, by firing turn..if I get called and he is indeed stuck to his overpair..there's a ton more value to be had on the river if I hit.
I understand it generally isn't profitable to bluff into a brick wall, but is there any merit to that line of thinking?