$400 NLHE Full Ring: JJ in $1,300+ pot

UTG ($193)
:
UTG+3 ($1,398)
:
CO (~$2,500)
Puck/button (~$500)
SB, Hero (> $1,398)
BB ($100)

$2/$5 in a B&M casino with over $100,000 Bad Beat Jackpot.

UTG calls $5. I classify him as a shortstacking fish.
UTG+3 raises to $20. I classify him as a TAG, and probably the player closest to my playing style in the table.
Next 4 players fold. I'm in SB.

A) What should be my flatting and 3-betting range in the SB? I am currently reading the Polished Poker ebook, so I will try to analyze my hand from what I have read so far.

1. How wide is villain raising?
UTG has been an ATC player despite continually shortstacking for the $100 minimum buy-in. UTG+3 is a tight player who has probably also observed that UTG has been limping too much, so is my estimate of his raising range to be ~17% of hands reasonable, e.g.,
[ 55+, AT+, QJ-KJ, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+ ]?
I am thinking that my 3-betting range in SB should be something like ~6% of hands
[ TT+(100), AQs+(100), A9s-ATs(100), KQs(100), AKo(100), A5s(100), AJs(75), A8s(75), A4s(75) ]
and flat with
[ 88, 99, AQ, JTs, QJs, A3s, AJs(25), A8s(25), A4s(25) ].

2. How good is villain in the big blind?
BB and UTG are both shortstacking fish. I wouldn't be surprised if BB flats the $15 raise despite having only $80 behind. I expect UTG to call with his

If I understand John A's advice, expanding my flatting range and providing a good price for BB and UTG to call and stay in the pot is ideal. So maybe I should move [ KQs, A8s-AJs, A4s-A5s ] from my 3-betting to flatting range? Or should I actually expand my 3-betting range to lessen the field to < three villains?

3. How aggressive is last-to-act villain post-flop?
I would classify UTG+3 as TAG so I'm supposed to tighten my flatting range. I think UTG+3 is willing to fold to a 3-bet, so I don't need to tighten my 3-betting range.

I'm supposed to occasionally trap by flatting some strong hands in tougher games against good villains. So in this specific situation based on the above factors, should I tighten my 3-betting range to only
~[ QQ+, AK, AQs+]
and flat with
[ 88-JJ, AQ, JTs, QJs, A8s-AJs, KQs, A4s-A5s ]?

I actually have


The hand will become very interesting, but should I flat or 3-bet? If 3-bet, how much and what should me my lowest 3-betting hand?

If you flat here, you are setting up a 4-way hand and JJ will not play well especially 1st to act. Ideally you would 3-bet and BB or UTG will shove. Then you have the benefit of having UTG+3 to act on those shoves before you do.

JJ is problematic because overcard hits the flop around 50% of the time and then what? Best to 3bet it here I think, especially since you are in the worst position.

Flatting to keep the weak players in is when you have position, or a slightly stronger hand, or deeper stacks and a hand that plays well against those stack sizes. OOP against 2 or 3 opponents isn't ideal. I don't think flatting JJ is horrible, if you don't think you'll get out played too often, but this biggest decision here is position and multi-way. So 3-betting here is ok, unless you think BB or UTG can move in with a decently wide range, then you should flat.

I'd 3-bet here pretty much all the time. We have a great hand to ISO the fish and frankly it's a pretty easy fold if UTG+3 4-bets; I wouldn't expect him to be messing around too much with us this deep.

Make it $85 and fold to a 4-bet.

Thanks for the replies. BB and UTG calling stations are unlikely to move in, so I think I should have gone ahead and 3-bet. In terms of sizing, is a pot-size raise to $70 ideal? If BB or UTG do jam, I would be forced to call against the short stack, but if UTG+3 4-bets, I would probably fold.

BB and UTG actually flat.
As part of my post-hand analysis, I used an equity calculator and assigned ranges of 30% of hands to the BB calling station, 37% to UTG, and 17% to the raiser
[JJ, 30%, 37%, 17%]
and my JJ has the highest equity of 38% preflop
(38%, 20%, 16%, 25%).

Flop: ($79 after $1 BBJ, session fee instead of rake)
(4 players)
Hero, BB & UTG checks. UTG+3 bets $50.
According to the equity calculator, the equities didn't change much on the flop:
[38%, 19%, 20%, 23%].
I decided to flat. BB folds. UTG check-raised all-in for his remaining $173. UTG+3 needed 26% pot equity to call and did flat. I needed to call $123 more or 21% pot equity (123 / 598). I thought my JJ has at least 21% equity so I called.

Using the equity calculator, I narrow UTG's range to 11.5% of hands and UTG+3 to 6%. I now have the lowest equity of 22%:
(22%, 43%, 35%).

Turn: ($598; effective stack left $1,205; SPR = 2.0)
(3 players; UTG is all-in)
Hero now has top set. What should I do and why?

John A said:

Flatting to keep the weak players in is when you have position, or a slightly stronger hand, or deeper stacks and a hand that plays well against those stack sizes. OOP against 2 or 3 opponents isn't ideal. I don't think flatting JJ is horrible, if you don't think you'll get out played too often, but this biggest decision here is position and multi-way. So 3-betting here is ok, unless you think BB or UTG can move in with a decently wide range, then you should flat.

Click to expand...

John A said:

Flatting to keep the weak players in is when you have position, or a slightly stronger hand, or deeper stacks and a hand that plays well against those stack sizes. OOP against 2 or 3 opponents isn't ideal. I don't think flatting JJ is horrible, if you don't think you'll get out played too often, but this biggest decision here is position and multi-way. So 3-betting here is ok, unless you think BB or UTG can move in with a decently wide range, then you should flat.

Click to expand...

Yep... from that position I flat, to keep the pot cheap, till I can see a flop.

-

baudib1 said:

I'd 3-bet here pretty much all the time. We have a great hand to ISO the fish and frankly it's a pretty easy fold if UTG+3 4-bets; I wouldn't expect him to be messing around too much with us this deep.

Make it $85 and fold to a 4-bet.

Click to expand...

$85? I know i'm an online kid and everything, but doesn't this seem a bit big if we're folding a 4b shove from UTG+3

I think Baudib wants it sized so we can GII on any flop vs UTG. I don't mind that sizing. We aren't expecting UTG+3 to ship here often so minimizing losses v him<maximizing vs fish IMO.

OP said he's a TAG so it's not like he has a wide range, I think he 4bets enough to make 3bet/folding smaller a better idea.

I hate the way we have played this hand. Every action so far seems terrible. We need to lead this flop with a fish in the pot. As played bet the turn and don't make it small.

$85? I know i'm an online kid and everything, but doesn't this seem a bit big

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$85 is small ina $2/$5 game with effective stacks 300 BBs.

good point, didn't see ESS

If flatting preflop was terrible and check-calling on the flop was terrible, what percentage of the $598 pot should hero bet on the turn?

baudib1 said:

I hate the way we have played this hand. Every action so far seems terrible. We need to lead this flop with a fish in the pot. As played bet the turn and don't make it small.

$85 is small ina $2/$5 game with effective stacks 300 BBs.

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Enough so that if he shoves over with 3 combos of made flushes and 1 combo of, say, AsAc, we will have odds to call it off.