$400 NLHE Full Ring: fold full house?

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Gildog89

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This is my second hand at a live 2/4 table in a room I have never been to with unfamiliar players. Effective stacks $500.


I open the pot to $15 in MP with 3c3s
I get 3 calls and the blinds fold


Pot is $66


Flop 7c 3d Ks


I bet $45, and get 3 calls


Pot $246


Turn is Kd


I bet $110, and get 3 calls


Pot is $686, I still have $330 in my stack


River is Ad


I check
Bet $200
Raise AI to 425
Call AI $365


The guy behind me already has calling chips counted, so I have to put in
$330 into effective pot of $1676.


Pot odds with lowest full house are tempting, but can I possibly be good here with no reads on other players? Thoughts?
 
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sryImPro

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It’s a good question, can you be any good here without knowing other players...It is tempting and thats where i would most deffinitely go all the way in. It’s a one buyin right and that was a good chance both, to get to know your table and to triple up...So i don’t know, maybe my reasons sound rookie but that’s why i would do the same thing
 
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wilywiles

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Did you lose this hand? I guess it would make sense you were looking up a higher boat. Otherwise why even right the question. From the set up you describe I would say its very hard to put your opponents on a hand when you are the first to act. Their calls can mean a lot so there is no way to really determine an indicator of strength of their hands. I doubt that they have pocket kings or pocket aces. It would make more sense to get more money in preflop but people like to trap every now and then. When it all comes down to it, especially in a cash game, you can feel pretty safe with getting all your money in on a flopped set turned boat. In your situation, Im going all in regardless. If you were to check, then fold to an all-in, id say you will be bet out by the worst hands at least 80 percent of the time. Put this same scenario in a deepstack tournament and you would have to carefully consider. Maybe a check on the turn would do best. That way you can just call the hand down. But im not folding to any bet here.
 
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Gildog89

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Honestly, I laid down my boat, and it was the best hand. That action was KJ, KT and Td9d. I just figured there was a better boat with the action that I saw on the river...someone flatting pre with 77, AK or K7. I also figured I got to see what they had regardless, and if I was best, I am in a good game and will get paid off later. It didn't work out that way because all the chips got up and left a few hands later. The losers in the hand didn't reload.
 
playinggameswithu

playinggameswithu

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The odds of them being full are 14% The Odds of them acting the way they did without a boat are 86%. AK would have 3 bet you likely and K7 is so unlikely it can be discounted. 77 is the only realistic threat.

Just for future reference this is an easy fold in Omaha and 86% never fold in NLH.
 
Figaroo2

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I would also have folded. Once 3 players all call both flop and turn on that board then I think we are beaten here by 77 more times than we are ahead. It is so unlikely all 3 hold Kx or worse and all call twice... unless they are really bad.... (Clearly they are pretty bad so look at it as a temporary loan it won't take long to get it back from this lot). I might have gotton it in 3 handed as no Kx is likely to fold, but not 4 handed.
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

WhereDidMyEVGo

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I rule out AA, KK, AK, K3. I'm paying off 77 and K7 if they have it. Even with 3 opponents I think I'm making them show me better there.
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

WhereDidMyEVGo

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I would also have folded. Once 3 players all call both flop and turn on that board then I think we are beaten here by 77 more times than we are ahead. It is so unlikely all 3 hold Kx or worse and all call twice... unless they are really bad.... (Clearly they are pretty bad so look at it as a temporary loan it won't take long to get it back from this lot). I might have gotton it in 3 handed as no Kx is likely to fold, but not 4 handed.
Does the flush getting there make you any more inclined to consider it 4-handed? I also factor in that live I'd usually expect one if not all of them to just be out of line.
 
finaltable1

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AA, KK, AK, 77 - these 4 hands are beating you.K7-K3 - I don't believe that people at this limit are playing such cards online.
in 80-90% of cases players holding AA-KK-AK would 3bet preflop for ev and to isolate. since they've just called - obviously they have none of these hands.
77 is something to think about and to be afraid of.
there might be a possible flush or few
there might be few sets
assumng it all we see that possibly 6 starting hands are beating you, 2 of them are the schimpanze hands. In the remaining 4 hands, most likely players will 3bet 3 of them and just call your preflop in case of 77.
Assuming it all and assuming that you know nothing about the players at the table i would say that you're most likely, 90% ahead.


If you're playing at this limit with your last money - then, well, maybe folding that hand was a good decision for you, but if you ask me - you need 12-20K bankroll to play 1 table at this limit. If you had such bankroll you would def. call there. I think that you had a 90% chance to tripple up your stack there, but you've missed it... in any case such pot with such hand and such board with such play of opponents, makes me pot commited. I would fold only if there was a 3bet preflop = good sign of a top pair.
 
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Gildog89

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Thanks for your thoughts here. This is a live low stakes game, and my bankroll is in tact, so not a factor in my decision. I have seen plenty of players flat AK in my local room lately, and also plenty that would come along multiway with K7 (especially suited). In my mind, those hands were more reasonable than the backdoor flush getting there. I really just thought I was beat and would have plenty of opportunity to get chips in a weak game.


The more I look at this hand, I realize how many players at live low stakes cash just see what is in their hands and don't even consider what their opponents might hold. I should mention that there was a high hand promotion in the room, with $500 going to the highest hand in the room every hour. I think it brought in a lot of weak players. Probably should have factored in to my decision a little more.
 
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hagaic

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You setup your sizing for a 1/2 pot river shove so why did you check???

As played it's an easy call.
You are getting terrific pot odds and there are so few realistic combos that beat beat you (K7s ?).
They could sometimes show up with a flush / trips / bluff, enough of the time to justify these pot odds.
 
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Gildog89

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You setup your sizing for a 1/2 pot river shove so why did you check???

As played it's an easy call.
You are getting terrific pot odds and there are so few realistic combos that beat beat you (K7s ?).
They could sometimes show up with a flush / trips / bluff, enough of the time to justify these pot odds.
I checked because the hand was still 4 way and I was hoping to get to show down cheaper. If the action behind me went bet, fold, fold, then I shove. I just couldn't see 1 of the other 3 players not having me beat with the action that unfolded... most likely hands being 77, then AK, then K7. If it's AK or K7, I am really happy to be in that game. As it turned out, I was happy to be in that game. Without a read on opponents, I tend to give them credit until I see different. The pot odds definitely made me want to call, but I thought I was beat. My bet sizing on flop and turn was meant to be able to get it in heads up on the river.
 
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RakeMyLife

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It sounds like you were worried your hand was beat before any bets on the river, so when they did bet, your mind was already made up.

I'm not sure why you thought you were beat though. As others have pointed out, you're either running into a cooler (77) or just got really unlucky (AK). I'm willing to lose my money for either of those situations. I'm not willing to lose value on a monster hand...
 
hugh blair

hugh blair

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Call them keep them honest I probably go all in here on turn definitely on river with 2 kings showing and 2 opponents or more interested in hand I would put them each on a king
 
Bozovicdj

Bozovicdj

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I had a situation that was almost the same to this one, only with 55. It was Khigh flop with 2 villains and the same K turn and A river. Unlike you, I went all in on the river only to be crushed by AK that flat called pre. My thought process on the turn was that villains would probably re-raise pre flop with AK, but flat with KQ, KJ, so if a Q or a J came on the river, I would go for a check-fold in case someone shoved. That being said, I honestly don't mind that fold of yours, but I am probably not looking at this objectively... Mathematically speaking, I think this is an all in or a check/call on the river almost all the time, just based on the hands that beat you as oppose to the pot odds that you are getting for your call.
 
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Gildog89

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I had a situation that was almost the same to this one, only with 55. It was Khigh flop with 2 villains and the same K turn and A river. Unlike you, I went all in on the river only to be crushed by AK that flat called pre. My thought process on the turn was that villains would probably re-raise pre flop with AK, but flat with KQ, KJ, so if a Q or a J came on the river, I would go for a check-fold in case someone shoved. That being said, I honestly don't mind that fold of yours, but I am probably not looking at this objectively... Mathematically speaking, I think this is an all in or a check/call on the river almost all the time, just based on the hands that beat you as oppose to the pot odds that you are getting for your call.
Just out of curiosity, do you remember how many were in the hand? I think heads up I am all in every time.
 
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Gildog89

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It sounds like you were worried your hand was beat before any bets on the river, so when they did bet, your mind was already made up.

I'm not sure why you thought you were beat though. As others have pointed out, you're either running into a cooler (77) or just got really unlucky (AK). I'm willing to lose my money for either of those situations. I'm not willing to lose value on a monster hand...
I was definitely worried, but mind wasn't made up. It was the river action that prompted my fold. All 3 couldn't wait to get it in. Obviously I left a big pot on the table here and regret the fold with the pot odds I had.
 
Bozovicdj

Bozovicdj

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Just out of curiosity, do you remember how many were in the hand? I think heads up I am all in every time.

I was UTG+2 if remember correctly, with HJ and BU calling me. So they were both in position over me. Villain1 had KTs and Villain2 (on the BU) had AK. I had them both covered which was another reason I shoved on the river, knowing that even if I lose I would have round 60BB to play with later on.
 
Verdue167

Verdue167

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I rule out AA, KK, AK, K3. I'm paying off 77 and K7 if they have it. Even with 3 opponents I think I'm making them show me better there.

Good thinking. Also, considering the turn calls, i think it's likely at least one villain has a king and another has a flush draw.




Apart from this, i remember having read a few years ago that games irl are weaker than online games at the same level. I don't know if this (still) holds, as i never play live, but this is also something to consider when judging a hand
 
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darpblog

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What has you beat? pocket 7's? I don't know, man. I don't think I can lay it down. A lot of kings follow you there, and the pot stack ratio, would have made it impossible for me to fold. You got beaten? , If so it's either a cooler or bad beat.
 
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Gildog89

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What has you beat? pocket 7's? I don't know, man. I don't think I can lay it down. A lot of kings follow you there, and the pot stack ratio, would have made it impossible for me to fold. You got beaten? , If so it's either a cooler or bad beat.
With the action on the river, would you get it in with a naked King 4-way? How are backdoor flushes still there? Can all 3 villains really not see a boat on that board? I'm not sure with the betting action, we can say losing with the lowest full house is a cooler or bad beat. I will say that the pot odds are so good, that calling it off here is a fine play, but I think you have to be prepared to reload your stack more often than not. Next time, unless I know that my opponents are competent players, I will likely take the call it off approach, but thinking that I am probably beat.
 
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