$400 NLHE Full Ring: Flop Set of Kings out of position against deepstack

$400 NL HE Full Ring: Flop Set of Kings out of position against deepstack

Live cash game.

Effective stacks are around $500. The game was actually 2-3, a live game. I'd bought in for $300 and ran it up to like I said, around $500. Player on my left seemed pretty solid, however I kept putting him in decisions that were tough for him, and he'd folded a couple times when he should have called, and I could tell he was looking for an opportunity to outplay me, as I had him so many times this night.

I'm UTG with KhKd. I raise to $15.
UTG+1 instantly re-raises to $45. (Hrm, Aces? Can't wait to find out...)
Folded to BTN. BTN calls (~$105 after his call. Blinds fold.

I re-raise to $150 (in retrospect this raise feels smallish, maybe $175-$190, but I know that a $105 raise is going to eliminate a lot of non-premium hands.)
UTG contemplates for about 45 seconds, then decides to call. (Either JJ-QQ, or very slyly played AA.)
BTN folds.
Pot: $345 (the blinds go to house and jackpot).
Flop - KsJc7s

Hero: ??

There are two things about this flop that bother me. 1: AQs is in villain's 3-bet range, and he might call a raise from me in an attempt at out-flopping/out-playing me, and if he did call with AsQs he's got a whopping 12 outs and two streets to get there, so we're close enough to him catching up one half of the time. The rest of his possible range is AKs, which I need not fear, and we will probably play for stacks, QQ, and JJ. QQ is killed by the K on the board, and is crushed by my range (AK, AA, KK), so I can expect no value from playing further against this hand, unless I play it too cheap and he hits a Q or a T to be open ended. And of course, JJ. The likelihood of set over set is low as hell, but no matter how I play this we'll both have our stacks in by the river.

vs AK - stacks in by the river, win ~99% of the time?
vs AsQs - stacks in ASAP, win ~50% of the time?
vs JJ - stacks in by the river, win 96% of the time?
vs QQ - fold to pot-appropriate bet?
vs AA - unlikely, but bet pot appropriate and hope he pays me off ~92% of the time.

Clearly I have his range destroyed, not counting KJ which I don't believe he would show up to this flop with.

The question is this: How do I get the most value out of this hand without letting him draw out on me/pick up outs?

Wow crazy flop, but in your favor most of the time unless he gets really lucky or is holding one of the two hands you really have to be worried about AsQs or Qs10s(very unlikely since you mentioned he's a very solid player). Well the pot is very nice at $345 and in my opinion you should go at him hard just in case he is on a draw or holding them Jacks, If I were you I would have gone with a min bet of at least $250 then shoved on the turn regardless of what came.

Well let us know what happened, i'm assuming he was holding either AA or JJ and you got paid off or you placed a nice bet and he folded.

You just 4 bet pre, is there any hands in your range that you check here? It just reeks of suspicion. We have $350 behind and the pot is $350 Just shove it. AA AK JJ or AQcc is never folding, all other hands probably aren't calling a smaller bet but folding to a shove, or betting if you check.

Bet $125. Charging draws is pretty much pointless in a 4-bet pot, because his range has very few draws in it. If villain has outs, he likely has 4 or less, and you can redraw on almost every hand he has. We want calls, and we want villain to believe he has fold equity so he can do something stupid like jam AQo. Thus, bet small, get the rest in on the turn.

You want to make your opponent's decisions as hard as possible so he's more likely to make a mistake. If we shove, it makes playing his hand pretty easy, but if we gay bet the flop, it makes playing hands like QQ, and AJ pretty tricky.

If you think he's tilting/looking to outplay you, wouldn't you consider checking and giving him the opportunity to "semi-bluff" with QQ/AK etc? Maybe getting him to shove light(er).

I wouldn't be too concerned about AQs.

Curious for your thoughts and to see how it played out.

It seems to me like a check here sends off signals that you hit, i don't think this guy is gonna fall for that trap and it's a bad spot to trap because the board is so wet. Why not just push here, you may look like your bluffing and you give him a bad price to draw.

There's $350 in the pot and about same behind. You should shove make it look like you're bluffing if he's holding JJ he's allin regardless maybe even AA. I wouldn't worry about AsQs if he is a solid player he would not be calling with a hand that could be easily crushed. Specially when you've 4bet him pre flop. And if he's drawing out make him pay to chase.

I agree with c9,

If he has AQss, he will re-raise your $125 bet on flop,

AQo he might call with, thinking 10's are definite outs and A is possibly an out?

AK he will call (fearing AA or KK?) or re-raise if he is adventurous enough.

AA/JJ he will ship,

any other pair he might call 1 small raise with, out of suspicion that you COULD have missed that K high flop or that you might have QQ/JJ type hand and that you could be outplayed later.

Wow, good advice c9, it is perfectly sensible. :cheers:

Thanks for the posts guys. I hadn't considered some of the points c9 made at the time. I ended up shipping because I really had him figured for QQ or JJ. Seeing the J and the K on the flop was like the nail in the coffin.

I jammed, he hesitated, called, and flipped over JJ.

*fist pump*

You guys are way over complicating this. Do we really think that villain will disillusion himself into thinking he can shove 225 more into a 825 as a successful bluff? Do we really think QQ will call 125 but fold to 350 after we've 4 bet pre and the board has both a King and a Jack.? If anything I think the 125 looks more suspicious than anything, almost the same as checking. no need to get cute here, AA AK JJ and AQs are never folding, nothing else is calling anything anyway, just ship it

I don't really see the $125 bet being successful either. I kinda had him figured for JJ so I'm glad the flop gave both of us our set.

Weregoat said:

I don't really see the $125 bet being successful either. I kinda had him figured for JJ so I'm glad the flop gave both of us our set.

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That's a good point. Discounting the psychology of money and all (assuming he is a good player) but what is he going to call $125 with that he won't call a shove? He's just as commited either way. Are we doing that simply to mess with his head when he has hands like C9 mentioned?

You are pot committed and you are obviously not folding.. Why risk losing the pot against AQo or AQss ?? I don't understand why there should be any other move than all-in ??

If he folds - you win 100% of the time and $175 is a nice win for those stakes.

You will get action from AK, AA or JJ for sure if you shove. QQ will never give you the rest of his stack .. AQss will probably call even if you shove, but if there's a chance that AQss will fold - you'd better try to make him lay it down.

Top set is not the same as hitting quads or a full house (which will be the nuts by the river 99.9% of the time). KKK on this flop is a vulnerable hand and you'd better shove and get action from already made hands which you definitely crush.

You shouldn't risk draws to hit and take you the big 4bet pot.

What happened in the end ?

Weregoat said:

I jammed, he hesitated, called, and flipped over JJ.

*fist pump*

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Effective stacks were closer to 575, as I remember stacking up a $1200 pot.

c9h13no3 said:

Bet $125. Charging draws is pretty much pointless in a 4-bet pot, because his range has very few draws in it. If villain has outs, he likely has 4 or less, and you can redraw on almost every hand he has. We want calls, and we want villain to believe he has fold equity so he can do something stupid like jam AQo. Thus, bet small, get the rest in on the turn.

You want to make your opponent's decisions as hard as possible so he's more likely to make a mistake. If we shove, it makes playing his hand pretty easy, but if we gay bet the flop, it makes playing hands like QQ, and AJ pretty tricky.

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Couldn't a $125 bet also look like a bet that is trying to milk your opponent for more money. I say bet smallish compared to pot bet around 160-190. I think betting $125 would set alarm bells in my head that my opponent has a monster.

Would like to hear the result off this hand?

tomh7795 said:

Couldn't a $125 bet also look like a bet that is trying to milk your opponent for more money. I say bet smallish compared to pot bet around 160-190. I think betting $125 would set alarm bells in my head that my opponent has a monster.

Would like to hear the result off this hand?

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One post above yours has them posted for the second time.

But just for you, he had JJ, and called my all-in shove.

$75 seems good here.