$400 NL HE Full Ring: Flop Set of Kings out of position against deepstack
Live cash game.
Effective stacks are around $500. The game was actually 2-3, a live game. I'd bought in for $300 and ran it up to like I said, around $500. Player on my left seemed pretty solid, however I kept putting him in decisions that were tough for him, and he'd folded a couple times when he should have called, and I could tell he was looking for an opportunity to outplay me, as I had him so many times this night.
I'm UTG with KhKd. I raise to $15.
UTG+1 instantly re-raises to $45. (Hrm, Aces? Can't wait to find out...)
Folded to BTN. BTN calls (~$105 after his call. Blinds fold.
I re-raise to $150 (in retrospect this raise feels smallish, maybe $175-$190, but I know that a $105 raise is going to eliminate a lot of non-premium hands.)
UTG contemplates for about 45 seconds, then decides to call. (Either JJ-QQ, or very slyly played AA.)
Pot: $345 (the blinds go to house and jackpot).
Flop - KsJc7s
There are two things about this flop that bother me. 1: AQs is in villain's 3-bet range, and he might call a raise from me in an attempt at out-flopping/out-playing me, and if he did call with AsQs he's got a whopping 12 outs and two streets to get there, so we're close enough to him catching up one half of the time. The rest of his possible range is AKs, which I need not fear, and we will probably play for stacks, QQ, and JJ. QQ is killed by the K on the board, and is crushed by my range (AK, AA, KK), so I can expect no value from playing further against this hand, unless I play it too cheap and he hits a Q or a T to be open ended. And of course, JJ. The likelihood of set over set is low as hell, but no matter how I play this we'll both have our stacks in by the river.
vs AK - stacks in by the river, win ~99% of the time?
vs AsQs - stacks in ASAP, win ~50% of the time?
vs JJ - stacks in by the river, win 96% of the time?
vs QQ - fold to pot-appropriate bet?
vs AA - unlikely, but bet pot appropriate and hope he pays me off ~92% of the time.
Clearly I have his range destroyed, not counting KJ which I don't believe he would show up to this flop with.
The question is this: How do I get the most value out of this hand without letting him draw out on me/pick up outs?