$400 NLHE Full Ring: Big river bet against Aces

Table had been playing very loose, pretty passive, so hero is not LAGish this time.


**Note this is 2/5 not 2/4


Hero is playing tight aggressive. Not been involved in very many pots. Stacked around 650 BB, that would be $3250.

Villain has been playing pretty loosey-gosey, being very aggressive with his marginal holdings and slow playing his big hands. Can read boards, understands odds, seems fairly competent. Doesn’t like to let pots go. Covers hero by around $1000

Villain raises to 15 from UTG
MP1 calls, Mp3 calls, Co calls.
Hero is Bttn with Ac As.
Hero raise to 85.
Blinds fold, villain calls, mp1 calls,
Other callers fold.

Flop: Ts 9s 4h Pot: 270

Villain checks.
Mp bets 20
Hero raises to 225
Villain calls
Mp folds.

Turn: 8h Pot: 740

Villain checks
Hero bets 550
Villain tanks, then calls.

River: 5d Pot: 1840

Villain bets 1800
Hero?

I think villains range from utg is A9s+, ATo+, 77+, JTs+ and JQo+
He knows am I pretty tight, so I think he dumps his weak aces like A9s and ATs, and a lot of his weaker face card combos like TJ and KJ.
His straight combos are pretty limited. 16 combos of JQ are the only str8s I think he has.
He doesn’t have any 2 pair combos at all imo.
His set combos are 88, 99, and TT.
His bluff combos are AK, KK, QQ, JJ, 77, AsJs, KsQs, ThJh.

Simply based on his ranges, he has a lot more bluff combos and smaller overpairs than sets and straights. His river bet looks weird. Have I analyzed this correctly?
I tank for a bit then jam on him. Is this the right move?

No matter what you think he has by the river, why would you jam there??? Very high risk, low reward...especially if you think he's bluffing. Since he's polarized his range on the river, you basically have a bluff catcher. No need to raise.

As far as his range, I don't see him donk bet-calling AK or 77 on the flop. So his bluff hands are actually more limited I think.

You said he's loosey-goosey, but how many times did you see him bluff the river?? Even among LAGs, river bluffs aren't super common and should be noted when seen. His line makes a lot of sense as a slow-play, which is what you mentioned he has done with his big holdings before (10-10, 99, maybe JQ).

For what it's worth your bet-sizing is a little high without obvious reason (i.e., not sure what you think he had on the flop or turn). It was very clear you had an overpair, which is also something to consider by the river.

Typically a slow played hand by the villain or a bluff as your best holding is probably an over-pair as you raised preflop. So his hand is most likely polarized and there is no need to jam the river as he has you either beat or he bluffed.

As range is concerned as you state that hes a LAG type player his preflop calling range can and should still be wide given the pot odds and the stack depth. Be aware that it is a perfect squeeze spot for you and if he calls there is a big chance that more will call depending on how loose they are.

On the river however his range should be very limited as he called your cbets on flop and turn. Most of his hands are either made hands or missed draw (spades or straight) or a small over pair and perhaps a harts draw with a gutshot. Over pairs are rarely turned into bluffs as they have proper showdown value and are better bluff catchers then hands to bluff with. Also the fact that you hold the A of spades blocks his possible flush draws draws. So I guess that the number of possible made hands is bigger then his missed hands.

On the river a jam your is normally not ok (depends if you know if your opponent is likely to thin value bet (smaller overpairs on this board) and call off a jam) and one can even question if a river call can be justified.

I'm guessing 99 here? His bet on the flop is as small as your bets were large; if he's betting that little, not sure why he wouldn't just check. His tank on the turn is concerning because it's as if he's considering you connecting on a straight draw, which would be in line with his power bet on the river if that's what he has you on. Again, having stated the way you've played, I don't think QJ makes sense for you at all here, but that could be his line of thinking.

As played, I hate the river re-raise because I don't see him making these massive calls down the line for this type of play. Man, I probably begrudgingly fold here.

Just to clear up, Villain did NOT bet the flop, mp was the one who donk lead.
I dont think he could slowplay a set on this board, his river bet makes no sense to me. Either he slowplayed JQ or he is bluffing here imo. The five doesnt help any str8 hand, as 67 had already made one. I jam and he folds.

So, you think villain can't have 2 pair, probably didn't slow play a set because of board texture. Either slow played the nuts or is bluffing and you jam the river? The only thing that accomplishes here is maybe folding out 2 pair. I think the river is a call or fold. Jam is too high risk.

I agree, jamming was sort of dumb, but if you look at stack sizes it was only for aorund 100 extra bigs. I probably should have just called though! Thanks for the analysis