$400 NLHE Full Ring: Actually 500nl, live. Range check.

thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

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$400 NL HE Full Ring: Actually 500nl, live. Range check.

Live game.
Villain (MP2) has 150bb, Hero (UTG+1) has him covered. Table is overall pretty fishy and there's a lot of limping and playing fit or fold.
Villain started as an unknown, therefore likely to be a fish and has been playing fairly weak-tight. Based on the info Villain has, Hero is a decent TAG.

Pre-flop: Fold, Hero raises to 4bb, fold, Villain calls, everyone else folds.

Flop: 9hThJd
Pot is 9.5bb
Hero bets 6bb
Villain calls

Turn: Qc
Pot is 21.5bb
Hero bets 15bb
Villain calls

River: 2d
Pot is 51.5bb
Hero bets 20bb
Villain calls

What are our ranges on as many streets as you'd care to answer?
 
GeorgeCostanza

GeorgeCostanza

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lol @ tellin us what fish thinks u r

neway, on the flop ur cbettin any 2 cards and his call can rep alot of stuff, Qx, 8x, Jx, 10x, so that seems pretty standard

but the turn and the flop is where it makes me wonder what you have

the turn bet by you seems pretty strong, and assuming ur a tag id give u credit for a K alot of the time and judging by his call he might have an 8? Id have to assume he'd raise you if he had a king but maybe not its not that far out of the realm of possibility to assume hes just callin with a K, but idk how he can can continue in this spot against ur strong turn bet without at least a set, but he prolly doesnt have cuz he most likely would have raised flop obv

so neway, ur river bet is really suspicious, idk u as a player, but the way i look at it is weak, and scared, maybe ur betting really really thin with like Q10 or AA idk, but in alot of spots i bluff shove that river against a bet like that, it only makes sense

please pm me the results, im interested to see what happened
 
Z

Zybomb

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Flop your range is pretty wide depending on how often you cbet.

Turn limits your range down to Kx and bluffs mostly with occasional nut flush draws (figure most 2 pair and sets would c/c)

River your range is basically Kx and bad bluffs (i don't think we're getting the folds we need once he flats the turn, and we're bluffing a bad player never a good sign to begin with). Had be been in position and villain checkedthe river our VB river range would be wider than Kx
 
thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

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I need to say my hand because card removal was a major factor in this one: QJs

Villain folds KJ/KT pre-flop a lot, not sure if I over estimated how often though.
AK 3bets pre-flop some/most of the time.
KQ is dancing a jig of joy on the inside every time I bet but I've got a Q in my hand and the turn makes his KQ even less likely.

Can't really count on FD's to weaken his range significantly.

So I'm down to two pairs (21 combos), sets (6) and hero calls (AT-AQ, AQ doesn't fold to my small bets very often, I think, AT/AJ are obviously folded most of the time) which take this line all of the time.

However you look at it it's thin but since I can fold if raised, I'm getting a good return on my money as long as I don't induce a bluff.

I can't usually find the c/c line purely because I hate bluff catching OOP, but in this hand it may have been better. It's just hard to figure out the EV for check-calling since his sizing with bluffs/value may be different and the frequency that he's bluffing is guesswork without lots of history.

Also just to point it out, my sizing on the flop was pretty bad. It's standard for me to bet bigger OOP and the board is extremely drawy so I'd bet bigger for that too, and at that point building the pot was in my best interest so my cbet should have been 8-9bb.
 
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