$400 NLHE Full Ring: 3 Questions

T

The Muppetteer

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$400 NL HE Full Ring: 3 Questions

Playing $2/3 at my local casino 3 Players in the hand

Player 1 UTG + 1 raises to $5
Player 2 with CO :kc4: :7c4: reraises to $11
Player 3 BB calls as does Player 1

Flop :10c4: :9c4: :5d4:

Player 3 checks
Player 1 checks
Player 2 bets $15
Player 3 raises to $50
Player 1 folds
Player 2 calls

Turn :10c4: :9c4: :5d4: :6s4:

Player 3 Goes all in for my than your stack,

Would you call and why or why not?
What do you put Player 3 on?
 
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JimmyBrizzy

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We need stack sizes and any reads we can get before making this decision.

From a quick look at the hand though, I'm not a real big fan of the 3-bet preflop, ur giving pretty good odds and not scaring anyone out with a pretty mediocre hand.

Also how does the betting work at this game where the first reraise is less than the minimum bet?
 
slycbnew

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^^^ Beat me to it

This is a hand that needed a good plan preflop that takes stack size into account. K7s is trash - it's only good as a bluff or semi-bluff unless you flop a flush, two pair, or trips - the plan for hitting part of the flop needed to be in place before the pf 3bet.

Any reads on the players? What are the stack sizes?

Confused by the pf betting. Did UTG+1 min raise, and Hero more or less min 3bet? Yuck if I'm getting that right.

What did you put him on with the flop raise, a draw or a made hand? Most regs I play live with do not aggressively bet/raise draws into a pf raiser, though a few do - and most tourists I've played don't raise draws at all. I think an overpair, 2 pair, or a set are more likely (TPGK is also possible if he's a super fish).

Hero's drawing to 2nd nut flush, which will beat all of these, though you may have dirty outs. Calculating whether Hero has pot odds to call requires stack sizes.

Could we have foreseen the shove? If the effective stack size was small, it would have been obvious that calling the flop meant having to call a turn shove. If stacks were deep, I'm more okay with the flop call, but still not crazy about it. There's no fold equity, no room to maneuver, you either hit your flush or you don't.
 
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Apologies for the errors

1st raise to $6
2nd raise to $11

Stack sizes at start of hand

Player 2 $140 (approx)
Player 3 $170 (approx)

Table had not been open long so no real reads.
 
slycbnew

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About $80 left to win about $213 ($33 pf, $100 on flop, Villain's $80 on turn, Hero doesn't get the rest of Villain's stack)- I think that's around 38%, fd on the turn is around 20% - Hero doesn't have odds, fold (I'm assuming Villain isn't drawing). Villain made a good bet to prevent Hero from drawing profitably.
 
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bw07507

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I think that's around 38%, fd on the turn is around 20% - Hero doesn't have odds, fold (I'm assuming Villain isn't drawing). Villain made a good bet to prevent Hero from drawing profitably.
He's also got a gutshot draw which gives him 4 more outs and given that this is 2/3 live I'd have to say his K is probably good more often than not giving him an additional 3 outs. I can't do math, but its real close I think.

The hand is played horrendously to begin with though. Fold K7s pre or 3bet it to a proper amount. ~$20 should do the trick. Once you 3bet it to $20 it becomes an easy stack on the flop with a flush draw, over, and backdoor straight draw.
 
OzExorcist

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He's also got a gutshot draw which gives him 4 more outs and given that this is 2/3 live I'd have to say his K is probably good more often than not giving him an additional 3 outs. I can't do math, but its real close I think.

The hand is played horrendously to begin with though. Fold K7s pre or 3bet it to a proper amount. ~$20 should do the trick. Once you 3bet it to $20 it becomes an easy stack on the flop with a flush draw, over, and backdoor straight draw.

The gutshot only gives him another three outs (we've already counted 8c) but yeah, I tend to agree a straight's probably good if you hit here. That's 12 outs and 26% to hit.

We need 17 outs (37% to hit) to make the call profitable, so even counting the kings doesn't give us the right price.

I'd be erring towards the fold preflop line, unless we've got really really good reads on our opponents and know how we're going to exploit them postflop, whether we hit or miss. Because if $2/$3 in Perth plays anything like it does in Melbourne, you can raise this to $20 and still expect at least two callers holding pretty much ATC. Also, $20 is a big chunk of our stack to be putting in on a bluff.

Since the table's only just opened and we don't have those reads, I just fold this preflop. There'll be more than enough chances to valuetown people when we hold a real hand and we don't need to go messing around with this one. Unless it's some kind of expensive and elaborate image-building play, in which case analysis is kinda redundant :p

As played, I fold. Villain's check-raise on the flop was pretty strong, as is his shove on the turn, and while this certainly doesn't have to be a monster we don't even beat ace high. This could be top pair, two pair, a set, a pair and a draw... doesn't matter, we're behind all of them.

I wouldn't nesc. hate three-bet shoving the flop though. Then we're more like 45% to hit and we're putting the decision back on the villain. We'll more than likely get called, but just say something like "It's good for the game ROFLcopter" and expect to get called down light from that point on.
 
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