$400 NLHE Full Ring: 2/3 NLHE Deep Stacks

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Gunner57

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Any thoughts on this hand would be appreciated. Would like to find out what people think is correct play on turn. Call, Bet, or fold.


Folded to MP+1
MP+1= $150
CO= $250
HJ = $150
Button= Hero = $650
SB= $250
BB= $450 Tight Aggressive player till river unless he has it (has 2 barreled me with a few times once with AJ on two Q board, plays suited connectors a bunch, and in general can play). Range for him is strong pre but not sure what could have hit for him on the flop.

Button Jh, 10h

MP+1 calls $3, CO calls, HJ folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB raises to $15. MP+1 calls, CO calls, Hero Calls.

Flop:
10d, 9h, 3h

BB bets $30, MP+1 folds, CO folds, Hero Calls.

Turn: Qh

BB Bets $70, Hero....?

input would be appreciated.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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If you're uncomfortable raising and getting it in here, fold preflop. Make it $200 and call his shove.
 
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vanquish

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if you don't think he's ever bluffing the river if you call the turn, then raising the turn and getting it in is fine
 
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baudib1

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raise the flop, raise the turn, something.
 
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vanquish

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rasing the flop isn't mandatory given reads
 
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baudib1

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Given reads he should our range crushes him on this flop.
 
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vanquish

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the read is that the guy has a tendency to barrel multiple times (as per: "has 2 barreled me with a few times once with AJ on two Q board"), so calling > raising OTF
 
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baudib1

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I mean, AJ was probably good, right? I'd assume his range for raising BB is probably pretty narrow and it's not like we have the nuts.
 
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vanquish

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Pretty consistent for him to do this with AQ or whatever though so just let him barrel
 
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baudib1

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you're right, we should raise hands without SD value (Qjhh) instead.
 
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Gunner57

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What would change if we did not hit the flush on the turn? If the Q of spades came out instead?

We would have 4 to the flush and a OESD and villian bets $70 into us?

Action:

Button Jh, 10h

MP+1 calls $3, CO calls, HJ folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB raises to $15. MP+1 calls, CO calls, Hero Calls.

Flop:
10d, 9h, 3h

BB bets $30, MP+1 folds, CO folds, Hero Calls.

Turn: Qs

BB Bets $70, Hero....?
 
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baudib1

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Make better hands fold (hard for him to call with QT-AT or even QJ-KQ type hands)
prevents us from folding the best hand sometimes when he decides the pot's too big and he should triple barrel with air

a river J will be an awkward card that we don't know what to do with

we don't let him off the hook when we make a flush and he check-folds AQ or something

we semibluff the turn cuz we're BOSS and it makes us tougher to play against
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Make better hands fold (hard for him to call with QT-AT or even QJ-KQ type hands)
prevents us from folding the best hand sometimes when he decides the pot's too big and he should triple barrel with air

a river J will be an awkward card that we don't know what to do with

we don't let him off the hook when we make a flush and he check-folds AQ or something

we semibluff the turn cuz we're BOSS and it makes us tougher to play against

The range that we're behind that bet/folds is TINY. We have the best hand the vast majority of the time but we're never ahead if called. I think shoving in the revised turn scenario is pretty bad. I'm sure it's profitable to shove but I think it's much more profitable to call.
 
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baudib1

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The problem with calling is we represent a medium-strength hand or draw when in fact we have HUGE hand. We're not likely to get paid off on a lot of our outs.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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The problem with calling is we represent a medium-strength hand or draw when in fact we have HUGE hand. We're not likely to get paid off on a lot of our outs.
Our hand isn't that huge. Probably ~35% equity if we shove and get called.
 
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baudib1

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how often do we need him to fold, I'm having a mental block right now. Is it around 30%?
 
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baudib1

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i think we need him to fold around 26% but I may be off on that.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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how often do we need him to fold, I'm having a mental block right now. Is it around 30%?
Closer to 40% I think. Again I'm sure it's profitable to shove, just don't think it's as profitable as calling.

Edit: Just saw your 26% number above. One of us needs to show our work. I nominate you!! :)
 
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baudib1

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so if we shove $405 on the turn 100 times

if he folds 26 times we $195 26 times = 5,070
if he calls 74 times and we win 35%
we win 25.9 times, lose 46.1 times

so 25.9 times we win $530 = $13,727
46.1 times we lose $405 = $18,670.5

13,727 +5,070 = 18,797 so we're showing a slight profit there

am I wrong anywhere?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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so if we shove $405 on the turn 100 times

if he folds 26 times we $195 26 times = 5,070
if he calls 74 times and we win 35%
we win 25.9 times, lose 46.1 times

so 25.9 times we win $530 = $13,727
46.1 times we lose $405 = $18,670.5

13,727 +5,070 = 18,797 so we're showing a slight profit there

am I wrong anywhere?

Ok. That looks right. So tell me where I went wrong.

I went with .35 * $530 - .65 * $405 = -$77.75 (Ev if called)

$77.75 / $195 = .39

p.s. i'm asian so not good at maths

I'm not so you're very likely correct.
 
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