$400 NLHE 6-max: OESD vs flop c/r

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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$400 NL HE 6-max: OESD vs flop c/r

Villain is unknown to me. This is the third orbit at the table, and the only thing I know about him so far is that he's 3-bet my button open once (I folded), and that I've seen him squeeze in another hand and that he's played most of the ten-or-so hands that I've been at the table. Doesn't mean a whole lot, but he's not passive at least. Last time, I opened to $12. This time, I minraise since he 3-bet me last time.

What's my next move? If I raise, what should I raise to?

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HAND 1
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$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


MP: $400 (100 bb)
CO: $496 (124 bb)
UTG: $621.10 (155.3 bb)
Hero (BTN): $482 (120.5 bb)
SB: $1,365.08 (341.3 bb)
BB: $418.60 (104.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 2
spade.gif
4
heart.gif

3 folds, Hero raises to $8, SB calls $6, BB folds

Flop: ($20) 5
spade.gif
3
club.gif
9
spade.gif
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB raises to $31.50, Hero...
 
Z

Zybomb

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Tough one bc tendencies of villain are important, i.e how would he play 9x? Xs Xs etc in this spot.

How to proceed here is generally decided (IMO) by how we would (and how our opponents believe we would) play AA in this spot. Would we three bet the flop? Call then raise a blank turn? Call the call a blank turn?

Whatever the line is, I suggest we take the same line with our 42o in this spot.

We have position, so I lean toward flatting and potentially bluffing if villains slows down and we brick, or representing the flush draw should it come and villain slows down (assuming villain does not frequently c/r with draws and then check when they come). I like this line better than 3 betting bc villain can then 4 bet semi bluff combo draws etc that we can't call with and they take away our move later in the hand
 
BelgoSuisse

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i don't think we can fold with such a nice hand this deep and in position.

i don't think we can 3bet pot-sized because it gives villain the last bet for stacks. Smaller 3bet sizes might be fine, but we're still giving up positional advantage when we do that.

Overall i prefer flatting here and try to take it down on the turn.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I don't know if it's of any importance, by the way, but I forgot to mention that villain can't know my tendencies either. I just changed my ID on party poker yesterday and have only played 100 hands since.

How to proceed here is generally decided (IMO) by how we would (and how our opponents believe we would) play AA in this spot. Would we three bet the flop? Call then raise a blank turn? Call the call a blank turn?

Whatever the line is, I suggest we take the same line with our 42o in this spot.

I tentatively agree. I think we should take the same line as we would with the strongest part of our range, but AA isn't at the top of it - 99 is. So substitute AA for 99 and I'm right there with you. The reason I say that is because a lot of the value from a hand like AA comes from catching bluffs (i.e. calling when he shoves with a flushdraw), where as 99 stacks his monsters. It's subtle, but it's important, I think.

i don't think we can 3bet pot-sized because it gives villain the last bet for stacks.

I definitely agree. And it's why I'd raise pot-sized with AA but not necessarily with 99.

I think my choices are between flatting and betting the turn when checked to and 3-betting small. Both are lines I could take with 99. I don't like flatting and checking back the turn if given the option, because this can be a stab-taking checkraise too often to forfeit fold equity like that and he has the chance to "bluff first" at the river, which - if the river is not a spade - he often will. And while flatting flop, checking back turn and raising river as a bluff is a very sexy line, I think it's a little bit better suited for an opponent we know well. ;)

If I make my 3-bet something like $75 and he

* re-raises, I think I have an easy fold. Even if there'd be room to shove I don't think I have any fold equity at that point since I find it hard to fathom that he'd 4-bet bluff the flop against an unknown. He may be on a flushdraw (probably the most likely part of his range) but he's still not folding that to a shove and I'm of course holding the nut low.

* folds, I'm a happy camper, having gotten away with a cheap bluff

* calls, I can make a ~2/3rds bet on the turn (regardless of the turn card) without being committed. If he calls again on the turn, I'll have left another 2/3rds bet in my stack for a river shove (as bluff or for value)

However, I'm not sure what kind of hands a random aggressive opponent might flat a 3bet with OOP on this board. I mean, he's 45/35 at this point but it's only like 10 hands. I would guess that he'll flat with medium strength hands that don't quite believe me when I 3-bet the flop and decide to peel. Stuff like A9, maybe, or 88. Maybe 76 or 87 peels a small 3-bet thinking that my action indicates a monster and that he'll stack me if he gets there. I think it's safe to say that his flatting range is fairly narrow but not very strong, at least. If he flopped a set I think it's unusual for him not to try to get it all-in on the flop. So when he calls and the turn is safe (a red deuce, say) I think I'll be able to take it down very often with a bet. Perhaps, by making the 3bet small, we may even induce some really weak hands to come along and win some extra money when we bluff the turn? This is dangerous territory against an unknown, though, but fun idea to play with.

But that's secondary. If I raise the flop small, I'm of course hoping that he folds. But what if we flat?

What I don't like about flatting is that often (most of the time?) we're going to have to shove the turn to win the pot because I think he'll bet the turn more often than not. And unless he makes it super small, we can't call for pot odds. What I like about flatting is that it allows us to find out if he's just spite-raising the flop and we have a much safer bluff when he checks to us on the turn (since that's very rarely going to be a strong hand). It also, of course, guarantees that we actually get to see a turn, which 3-betting the flop doesn't.

However, it's also the case that our outs are tainted. If he's checkraising on a semibluff, 87 is a part of that range and that takes away sixes from our clean outs. And of the four aces, the ace of spade is of course dangerous - and the other aces may just kill our action instead of letting us stack him (e.g. he check/raised the flop with TT and a red ace falls on the turn).

Overall, I'm leaning towards a small 3-bet with an option to bluff the turn if called and giving up if re-raised. But I'd like to hear more arguments for and against it.
 
StormRaven

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If you indeed had 99 then why give a flush draw a free card and have to worry about filling up when the spade hits the turn? So if you are substituting AA for 99 wouldn't you go ahead and fistpump his reraise? I would think that would send him the message "I have the best hand right now and do not want you drawing out on me". Or do we not want to send that message? I haven't played beyond 200nl so I am not sure, just sounding some things out here.

I would think just flat calling sends the message "I'm backing down my draw". Maybe not. I understand that you probably do not have the best hand at this point with 24 but perhaps you have the better draw if he isn't on spades but wasn't your preflop raise and flop bet supposed to send the message of a medium to high ppr to start with? But doesn't flatting send the message that you no longer think you have the best hand and you might have pf raised and bet the flop with air or maybe he's putting you on a big A that missed? Isn't the point of playing something like 24 to steal the pot? I am curious and look forward to responses.

Edit: A continuation thought. If we back off of telling the story of a ppr in lieu of a big A or air, why back off when villain reraises? If we do this then we aren't telling the same story so if you are afraid you can't take down this pot then why flat call? Hoping to catch up? I think flatting changes the story, even if you were trying to convey AA or 99 you wouldn't want another to catch a flus on you. I guess that is my line of thinking, like to hear what others have to say.
 
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Z

Zybomb

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If you indeed had 99 then why give a flush draw a free card and have to worry about filling up when the spade hits the turn? So if you are substituting AA for 99 wouldn't you go ahead and fistpump his reraise? I would think that would send him the message "I have the best hand right now and do not want you drawing out on me". Or do we not want to send that message? I haven't played beyond 200nl so I am not sure, just sounding some things out here.

I would think just flat calling sends the message "I'm backing down my draw". Maybe not. I understand that you probably do not have the best hand at this point with 24 but perhaps you have the better draw if he isn't on spades but wasn't your preflop raise and flop bet supposed to send the message of a medium to high ppr to start with? But doesn't flatting send the message that you no longer think you have the best hand and you might have pf raised and bet the flop with air or maybe he's putting you on a big A that missed? Isn't the point of playing something like 24 to steal the pot? I am curious and look forward to responses.

This isnt a tournament its a cash game. We are interested in maximizing value out of our hands, not just taking the hand now now. Villain will not give us "A big A that missed" if we call a flop CR because we aren't calling CRs with Ax no pair (unless we have a read that villain c/r bluffs on rag boards a ton and shuts down after if called).

I'd suggest calling bc my 3 bet range for this flop would be very narrow. I'd likely flat almost everything in position and play on the turn accordingly. While 3 betting large 99 will fold out a lot of draws, it also will fold out everything that we beat (outside of maybe a slowplayed big overpair or a smaller set) and will not allow villain to bluff into us on blank turns, or be confused in the fact that they are value betting the turn.

With the hand we actually have, of course we don't have the best hand with 4 high, but our intent is to use our positional advantage later in the hand. We can (preferably) hit our draw or if not we can semi-bluff if checked to, or raise if bet into and we feel villain can not call. Regardless we are showing strength by calling his flop c/r not weakness as you suggest and we get to see what he does first on the remaining streets
 
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