$400 NLHE 6-max: JQs from SB vs Limper

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NL Holdem 2/4(BB)
CO ($400) [VPIP: 22.8% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 20.5% | hands: 1655]
BTN ($279) [VPIP: 49.5% | PFR: 2.5% | AGG: 36.3% | Flop Agg: 22.9% | Turn Agg: 42% | River Agg: 52.3% | 3-Bet: 1.3% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 41.5% | Hands: 366]
HERO ($522) [VPIP: 23.9% | PFR: 11.9% | AGG: 23% | Flop Agg: 24.4% | Turn Agg: 20.5% | River Agg: 23.2% | 3-Bet: 4.4% | 4-Bet: 20.4% | Hands: 18215]
BB ($643) [VPIP: 67.1% | PFR: 11.1% | AGG: 20.4% | Hands: 253]

Dealt to Hero: Q:spade: J:spade:

CO Folds, BTN Calls $4, HERO Raises To $16, BB Folds, BTN Calls $12

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.31 effective]
Flop ($36): 4:club: T:diamond: 9:heart:
HERO Bets $18 (Rem. Stack: $488), BTN Raises To $36 (Rem. Stack: $227), HERO Calls $18 (Rem. Stack: $470)

Turn ($108): 4:club: T:diamond: 9:heart: 6:spade:
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $55 (Rem. Stack: $172), HERO Calls $55 (Rem. Stack: $415)

River ($218): 4:club: T:diamond: 9:heart: 6:spade: 9:spade:
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $28 (Rem. Stack: $144), HERO Folds

is that a good raise from sb or should i just be limping behind and see a cheap flop?
is that a good board to cbet and easy call on flop with oesd?
Turn?
Villian bets so small on river which can be weakness and afraid of board pairing with middle card? is that a good bluff spot or if the villian would have been little more deeper we could have bluffed?
need your wisdom!

I am absolutely not at the level of playing 400NL yet, but I like looking at these hand analysis questions to see if my thought process matches that of the poster.

1. I feel like the raise out of the SB is justified, because you are playing out of position against the open limper and it is very possible that he could shut down and you take the pot preflop. I don't see any issue with the sizing and it seems like a very standard play with a hand that will hit many flops.

2. You hit one of the best flops you could possibly hit, with two overs and an oesd. I feel that this is an absolute cbet against the BTN as a semibluff. It is also possible you still have the best hand at this point. When he min raises you, it doesn't seem like he would have a 9 obviously, because a hand like 98 would just call, and a hand like 10 9 would also call to keep you betting. I think calling or 3 betting him could both potentially be viable options. I think slowplayed overpairs are also out of the question as well.

3. I think overall, this is a board you could three barrel on, and even if you check that turn everytime, I think a possible re raise on the river could potentially get him off a possible 10 he has due to how he downsized his bet. The way you played, you could potentially rep the 10 9 as it would seem like a value bet on the flop.

I think your raise pf vs 1 weak limper is fine. You get a good flop, but in order to be able to get the villain to fold, you need some specific reads. Will he ever fold top pair? Or even middle pair?

Once you have that information, you'll be better equipped to know whether you're going to take a more aggressive line, or a more passive line, as you ended up doing.

Not bad. But I wouldn't raise preflop out of position. Preflop check, bet-call flop, check-call turn, check-pass river.And I think this is not the best case for bluffing.

seeyouthru said:

is that a good raise from sb or should i just be limping behind and see a cheap flop?

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Yes, I like the raise. I would much rather iso a wide limping range and go heads up with a hand this strong than go three ways OOP with Q high and hope to hit something.

seeyouthru said:

is that a good board to cbet and easy call on flop with oesd?
Turn?

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I can go either way on the flop. I'd lean check / call here as this board doesn't really hit our raising range as hard as a calling range. Given the min raise I agree we have to at least call. If there was one spade on board I then I think we could continue on enough turns to cbet at a much higher rate and entertain bet / raising. Also V dependent. If they are sticky or aggressive I'm more likely to x/c. If they are fit or fold then cbet.

I also agree with the turn call for half pot assuming we can get a decent value bet called on the river if we hit.

seeyouthru said:

Villian bets so small on river which can be weakness and afraid of board pairing with middle card? is that a good bluff spot or if the villian would have been little more deeper we could have bluffed?

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We don't block any value and we rep really thin on this river. I think a bluff is a wild guess here. We could definitely play 9x or a flopped set like this but that's probably about it. Will V buy it? You would know better than us but in a vacuum it seems bad to rep this thin with no blockers on the river when V has raised flop and barreled all the way down showing strength. V could be holding the hand we are trying to rep here on occasion.

On the river the villain's bet is too small. Most of the time our call on the river will be unbalanced, because our range will not be strong enough to catch bluffs. I think the main issue here is whether we can turn our hand into a bluff, or do an exploitative fold and save money.
To have a clearer idea we must characterize our villain. If we think BTN is a weak enough player to fold a hand after getting too involved in a spot, then perhaps the entire gameplay sequence is worth looking into a bit.
In a first approximation we must say that this player has quite passive game patterns, although the sample is too small, this is a general trend that we can observe. He also seems to be a sticky player, which makes us think that perhaps the exploitative path and the consequent fold are more logical.
Suppose we have seen very notorious situations or quite unbalanced folds on the part of this villain, we will begin to analyze.
On the flop there are not many neutral hands in range V who would opt for a B / R line. In fact, the most probable hands that could follow this line are: AJ; A7 and A8. This is because these combos block combinations in the hero range like: KJ; J-T; J-9 J-8; J-7; 7-8; 9-8; 7-7; 8-8. And from range H, the call on the flop could be made up of high combinations: AK; AQ; QK. Which have the potential to generate fold equity from hands in range V such as 5-5: 6C; A-7: 16C; A-8: 16C; A-J: 12C = (50C)
On the turn the villain's bet is value oriented. And on the river the board is paired. Clearly the texture of the board is not good for us. Now it beats us: 7-8: 16C; AT: 12C; KT: 12C; QT: 9C; JT: 9C; A9: 8C; K9: 8C; J9: 6C; T9: 6C; 44: 3C; TT: 3C; 99: 1C; 66: 3C. Total possible combos for V: 146.
On the river we need to win 11% of the time in order for our bluff to be profitable since we don't have enough capacity to call. If we can assign at least in rank V, 2 hands from group 1 as AJ and A8 we have: 28/146 = 19.18% and in this case, our bluff would start to be profitable on the river. But again, this would be more viable in another scenario. For example, when the V has full stack, that we can establish a high frequency of fold equity, etc. Without these specific readings, the best idea is possibly the fold on the river.
Greetings.