$400 NLHE 6-max: JJ, 3-way, big pot, wet board

$400 NL HE 6-max: JJ, 3-way, big pot, wet board

SB is a reg, with very reg-like stats. His range for flatting a 3-bet OOP should be, well, empty. But he obviously does flat so then I'm willing to concede that he might be doing it with a hand like AA (trapping) or 88-JJ. Maybe AQs. Maybe, maybe KQs. This, in other words, is not a great flop for me.

UTG is a maniac. He raises plenty and never folds to a 3-bet. Then again, he hasn't 4-bet so far either. What I'm trying to say is that his hand on the flop can be virtually anything. Once he calls the flop, though, he at least has something, but that something can go anywhere from overcards to a flopped straight.

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HAND 1
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$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


SB: $424 (106 bb)
Hero (MP): $400 (100 bb)
CO: $433 (108.3 bb)
BB: $400 (100 bb)
BTN: $1,421.85 (355.5 bb)
UTG: $932.75 (233.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with J J
UTG raises to $12, Hero raises to $52, 2 folds, SB calls $50, BB folds, UTG calls $40

Flop: ($160) T 7 8 (3 players)
SB bets $85, UTG calls $85, Hero...

I'm clueless. I can shove and get action from hands that are at worst flipping versus me but probably has me severely dominated. I can call and hope to doge just about half the deck on the turn. I don't like either option. I'm also not a fan of folding overpairs in 3-bet pots to halfpot c-bets.

I think I have to fold here. SB's range is so strong I just don't see him doing this with anything less than a combo draw which is obv flipping.

Does it matter how wide UTG's range is if SB has basically sets/QQ+/combo draws here?

i think i'm super scared of SB's flat and donk and i fold.

Have you 3 been at the table for long? Is there history of you opening up your 3bet value range against UTG enough to affect the way SB reacts to it?

UTG's range doesn't really matter in perspective of SB's action other than as a red flag that the fact that he called means that he probably has a real hand. It's doubtful that UTG beats me, but he probably does steal some of my equity.

Like I said, I don't really know what to do about SB's preflop flat. His flop bet means that he has something. Most somethings he can have beat me. But the pot odds... And position on the fish... And... And...

God, I hated this hand with a vengeance. Regs shouldn't be allowed to flat 3-bets OOP and then donk. It's just not fair.

F Paulsson said:

Regs shouldn't be allowed to flat 3-bets OOP and then donk. It's just not fair.

Click to expand...

or maybe you need to experiment it yourself?

BelgoSuisse said:

i think i'm super scared of SB's flat and donk and i fold.

Have you 3 been at the table for long? Is there history of you opening up your 3bet value range against UTG enough to affect the way SB reacts to it?

Click to expand...

I had been at the table for maybe 30 hands when this happened. I don't remember what my 3betting had been like, but since I don't remember it it's unlikely that it was far out of the ordinary.

BelgoSuisse said:

or maybe you need to experiment it yourself?

Click to expand...

While I sort of like the idea, the only problem with that is that it would require me to start flatting 3bets out of position, which I just hate doing. Perhaps I can make up for it by donking occasionally. I'll have to think about it.

Is my guess at SB's range below somewhat OK?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

30,690 games 0.016 secs 1,918,125 games/sec

Board: Td 8d 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.611% 35.29% 00.32% 10831 98.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 64.389% 64.07% 00.32% 19663 98.00 { KK+, TT-77, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, QdJd }


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Secondly: Come to think about it, I don't particularly mind him flatting here with some speculative hands. UTG hasn't 4-bet (or even 3-bet) yet at the table and so he's unlikely to reraise when the action gets back to him, and SB gets to play a big pot with a very bad player. What would that do to SB's range? Is QJs in it?

And the more I think about my flop decision, the less I like folding, unless UTG's presence makes a big difference. Although we're likely behind SB's range, we're not precisely drawing dead. Is there no case to be made for flatting the flop and giving up on the turn if the action keeps coming and we don't improve?

well, you do have 6 outs, most of which are clean, so calling can't be horrible. It only becomes spew when you call a shove on turn unimproved.

BelgoSuisse said:

call a shove on turn unimproved.

Click to expand...

Yeah, I don't see that ever happening. I mean, if SB leads out on flop and then shoves into two players on the turn, he can't be bluffing.

I'll be in a great big pickle if SB checks a brick turn and UTG bets, but I'd probably stack off there. If SB checks, I have to think that he has a combodraw or 99 (or maybe AA), but never a set.

i think SB's range here is weighted away from combo draws, because i think he's check raising those a lot more often (if someone bets, he gets to stack off happily, if it checks through, he gets a free card to hit his draw), so i think this is mostly sets and overpairs

Assuming I haven't seen villain get out of line I'd fold pretty quickly. A 3 Bet Flat is TT-QQ very very often. We can't beat two of those combos and we have the 3rd making it extremely unlikely that he does as well. If he somehow did 3 bet flat with AK or similar, I highly doubt he's going to take this line postflop unless it's AdKd (in which case we're still slightly behind) and even so I think he'd CRAI with this instead of a weak lead a little more than half the pot. I guess he could show up with 99 here once in a while and we have the blockers, but again I just don't see him using this line post flop very often. Even if villain thinks you are 3 betting light to adjust for the idiocy of UTG, he'd then 4 bet you pre rather than take this strange line. We're usually drawing very thin.

vanquish said:

i think SB's range here is weighted away from combo draws, because i think he's check raising those a lot more often (if someone bets, he gets to stack off happily, if it checks through, he gets a free card to hit his draw), so i think this is mostly sets and overpairs

Click to expand...

qft, plus I really don't see a cold call from QJs/KQs/AQs/AKs all that often if ever. It just doesn't make sense to me and I think both that and 99 should be discounted (I don't think 99 leads this flop, but that's debatable).

Basically I almost always see this as a set or an overpair tbh, and obviously that range has you in way worse shape than the one you have above, FP.

ChuckTs said:

qft, plus I really don't see a cold call from QJs/KQs/AQs/AKs all that often if ever. It just doesn't make sense to me and I think both that and 99 should be discounted (I don't think 99 leads this flop, but that's debatable).

Basically I almost always see this as a set or an overpair tbh, and obviously that range has you in way worse shape than the one you have above, FP.

Click to expand...

Sets and overpairs has me in bad shape, but I'm still drawing to six clean outs, and I'm getting 4:1 immediate odds (11:1 maximum implied odds but since I'll stack at least one of them if I hit it has to be at least 7:1), which makes me think that this is pretty close even if SB's entire range crushes me.

How are all 6 outsclean? The fish has quite a few 9xs and flush draws, discounting a lot of your outs.

Also do you see the SB stacking AA-QQ if a 9 or jack drops? Or the fish stacking a ten?

I dunno, it just seems pretty overly-optimistic to me.

I meant that my clean outs are versus the SB's range. What UTG's range does to my outs is important, although I'd lean a little towards it being the case that his presence is the pot is more +EV than -EV for me. My idea of having 7:1 in implied odds is that if I hit I'd stack at least ONE of them.

It's very possible that my thinking here is biased by the fact that I know how the hand played out (and that my continued optimism is because I know that it worked for me), so if you'll forgive me for posting results...

(For some reason, with my recent computer problems, the postgresql database won't start, so HEM won't work and I'll do this from memory)

The turn was the As. SB checks, UTG checks and I check back. The river is a non-diamond 9, SB checks, UTG checks and I jam and get called by UTG who has AK. My initial call on the flop was basically with the thinking that SB had a big pair, a combodraw or a set but that I was getting decent odds to take one off in position in a 3-way pot with a huge fish. When the turn came an ace, I was going to fold to any bet, but they both checked and I got saved by a free card. However, the fact that SB did not bet the turn says to me that he didn't flop a set and that he didn't have AA. So QQ and KK fit, but with the fish having AK, there are only 3 combos left of KK to have. And QQ feels like a really weird thing for him to flat a 3-bet with out of position (then again, maybe he doesn't think so).

So unless SB's turn check was some kind of weird slowplay (checking TT because he doesn't want anyone to fold) that doesn't make any sense at all, I'm left thinking that he might have flatted KK and then given up when two people called and an ace rolled off. I'm generally not happy about only assigning 3 combos to his range though, but maybe here it's warranted.

But yeah, it's very possible that I misplayed it and got lucky. On the flop, SB's line didn't make much sense to me and after the river it made even less sense, and with all the head scratching that was going on I figured I'd best post it.

F Paulsson said:

I meant that my clean outs are versus the SB's range. What UTG's range does to my outs is important, although I'd lean a little towards it being the case that his presence is the pot is more +EV than -EV for me. My idea of having 7:1 in implied odds is that if I hit I'd stack at least ONE of them.

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Well I'm just trying to figure out situations in which you would get a full stack on average, but I can't really come up with many.

Like utg having AK here and hitting an ace on the turn, you getting a free card vs what I think is most likely QQ-KK in SB's range and UTG slowplaying his TP (lol), and binking the river is one of those few instances.

I mean doesn't UTG have to stack his draws and single pairs when we hit our 9 on the turn? I don't see that happening every time, and I don't see SB ever committing once we hit, without a stronger/equal strength hand of his own of course. Like QQ/KK/AA is immediately shutting down on any 9/J/diamond once you both call.

So I still disagree, but could be wrong. I just don't see our jacks being that clean, and even if they are they kill our action for the most part. That leaves 9s, but I still think there are a ton of FDs out there that teint those somewhat.

Definitely an interesting spot and obviously worth posting, I just personally think the call is thin at best

Wtf is the small blind doing]

If he's a reg I can't see this being AK ever!
88+ all beat us other than 99

What's his fold to 3bet stat?
Looking at this now I'd say fold.
If it actually came down to it this decision alone wud prolly tilt me and I'd shove rather than attempt to figure this out within the 30seconds in my timebank.