$400 NLHE 6-max: AQo 4b pot OOP, 2nd pair

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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$400 NL HE 6-max: AQo 4b pot OOP, 2nd pair

Villain is new to me, but is playing something like 40/30 over a 100-hand sample. He's been very active in 3-betting while I've been at the table and he's shown down some weak hands in big pots. In short: I have no reason to believe anything than that he's very LAG and so when I 4-bet AQo preflop, I do so with the intention of calling a shove. This is the very bottom of my range for doing it, but I'm pretty sure it's profitable assuming my read on him is right.

I didn't expect him to flat the 4-bet, because... Well, because I never expect anyone to do that. But he did. And then I flop second pair in a huge pot and decide to check the flop because I figure I'll just fold out everything I crush (88-JJ or whatever) and get called by everything that crushes me (AK, AA, KK, QQ, KQ). I'm not very worried about a flush draw given that I have the As.

Still, should I check the flop? Should I check the turn, too? Or am I done giving him free cards to his 2-outer, or 4-outer if he has AJ/AT? If I bet, how much? And what should I do if he shoves?

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HAND 1
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$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


SB: $475.70 (118.9 bb)
CO: $400 (100 bb)
Hero (MP): $400 (100 bb)
BB: $702.60 (175.7 bb)
BTN: $560.80 (140.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with A
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Q
diamond.gif

Hero raises to $12, CO folds, BTN raises to $40, 2 folds, Hero raises to $104, BTN calls $64

Flop: ($214) 7
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K
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Q
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(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($214) 4
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(2 players)
Hero...
 
JimmyBrizzy

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I agree w/ your evaluation of the flop... and the turn doesn't change much from my view.

I still think we are ahead of him on the turn, but betting won't do anything except fold out most of his weak holding. Checking to this type of LAG twice, when he has position, should be able to extract at least one more bet from a weaker hand that we can call. I'm not sure we should worry about the 2-4 outs he might have with his gut shots or PP's since that isn't happening very often.

I think this also keeps the pot under control as much as best we can in a 4-bet pot that is already pretty big.

How wide do you think he is calling you're 4-bet here preflop?
 
ace2daface

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(1) I agree with flop check. What worries me is the check behind by the LAG. Usually when given a chance to bet they will but i guess he thinks (if he thinks that way) that this smacks a good portion of your pf 4bet range.

(2) the blank turn changes nothing in relative terms and i think that this is again a check and see if we can get the villian to bluff some of his weaker range. i dont see many draws in this due to texture of board and AJ/AT have to be discounted somewhat due to you having an Ace in your hand.

If villian bets into our turn check i think that we have to call (any merit to a check and then shove if villian bets though? the wtf element might get a call from his weaker range).

If villian checks behind then this is a 1/2 - 3/4 pot value bet on the river.


Arrgh, the more i look at this the more i think wtf. The pot is so big from the PF play i think that at that stage we have decided that we want to play a big pot with this hand against villian and that now we flop middle pair top kicker and essentially any bet that is made from now on almost commits us to the pot.

maybe this is flawed thinking as this is my one of my first replies to a hand analysis thread but i can only get better by someone pointing out where my thinking is not optimal.
 
c9h13no3

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When he checks the flop, he generally always has some kind of showdown value, so checking to him again is pretty pointless.
 
Z

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When he checks the flop, he generally always has some kind of showdown value, so checking to him again is pretty pointless.

I agree that he generally has some kind of showdown value once he checks, but the thing is after we've 4 bet pre QQ AA KK AK AQ are all in our range so how often are we getting value out of two Tens or something? I mean I guess he could have JJ and put us on TT and call one bet (?), but Im not sure if that combined with the fact that we are protecting from 2 and 4 outers (whoopee) overshadow the possibility of him spazzing out and doing something stupid with a showdown potential hand if we check again.
 
F Paulsson

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My reasoning on the turn was that the lion's share of his range was 99-JJ and that he was less likely to bet that range when checked to on the turn than to call a bet with it if I bet myself. I also thought there was a small but not non-existant chance that he'd spazz out and shove if I made a halfpot bet. On top of that, even though fold equity from 2-4 outs isn't much to celebrate, it IS worth around 2 big blinds at this point and I'll happily add it to the benefits of betting.

If he was trapping the flop with KK or KQ, so be it. I'm bet/calling.
 
Z

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My reasoning on the turn was that the lion's share of his range was 99-JJ and that he was less likely to bet that range when checked to on the turn than to call a bet with it if I bet myself. I also thought there was a small but not non-existant chance that he'd spazz out and shove if I made a halfpot bet.

What about underbetting the flop? Say $90 with the intent of calling a shove (since the bet is designed to get him to spaz out we have to follow thru and call, plus I think most strong hands can't shove here for fear of QQ or KK out of us). Plus since villain has been showing down weird hands in 3 bet pots, it might not be correct to automatically narrow his range to 88+ KQ+. He's liable to have T8s A7s or some other weird hands as well and could have more outs than we believe if we're ahead. The bet is also so small that inferior hands might even peel. Not sure if it's my preferred line, but def something to think in the mix. It also widens our range by betting. Once we check the flop our hand is kind of face up as a semi strong showdown hand (or an occasional monster)... but like if we had an airball here, we certainly aren't checking
 
Makwa

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I'm inclined to probe bet the flop say 1/3 pot. If FP's read on villains holding is correct then he should fold. If he pushes on my bet then I may have to fold.

Sorry FP but I can't really decide unless I know his Fold to CBet or FBet numbers and his overall AF...

Gruesome hand...
 
F Paulsson

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What about underbetting the flop? Say $90 with the intent of calling a shove (since the bet is designed to get him to spaz out we have to follow thru and call, plus I think most strong hands can't shove here for fear of QQ or KK out of us). Plus since villain has been showing down weird hands in 3 bet pots, it might not be correct to automatically narrow his range to 88+ KQ+. He's liable to have T8s A7s or some other weird hands as well and could have more outs than we believe if we're ahead. The bet is also so small that inferior hands might even peel. Not sure if it's my preferred line, but def something to think in the mix. It also widens our range by betting. Once we check the flop our hand is kind of face up as a semi strong showdown hand (or an occasional monster)... but like if we had an airball here, we certainly aren't checking

Had I known then what I know now, I probably would have bet the flop. But on the flop my assumption was that he would very rarely check back such a scary flop if given a chance to bet to protect/bluff. I was wrong about that and in hindsight that makes a flop bet better, but... Well, I didn't know that at the time. And if I go into this situation blind, I'd rather check to induce than bet to induce because checking usually does the trick better.
 
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