$400 NLHE 6-max: AK oop vs. weak-tight

$400 NL HE 6-max: AK oop vs. weak-tight

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/12/2.1

600 hand sample. He folds to c-bets 69% of the time. He 3-bets preflop 4.4% of the time, although 6% on the button. Sample not enough to converge, of course, but should give you an idea.

He raises flop 6%. Goes to showdown 20%. Weak-tight, is what I'm trying to say.

Preflop is standard, on the flop I could go either way. He's folding so much when I bet the flop that I'm not convinced it's the best play. No point in giving free cards to JTs and T9s and even 2-outers; may as well bet. I'll probably get called by QJ and KJs, but other than that it's a little hard to figure out hands that call that I beat. Let's not forget about flush draws, though.

On turn, my equity has plummeted. I don't think he has KK or QQ, but 77 is definitely in his range, as is KQ and JTs. I could maybe find an argument for check/folding here, but I don't like to check/fold on drawy boards, even versus nits. I think this is going to be a free-showdown play with AQ or KJ or a semibluff that won't follow up on the river often enough for me to take one more off.

On the river, I can't think of anything but a stone cold bluff that I beat and I don't think this player has it in him to float with air (or even AJ/AT) and then bet two barrels on a board like this.

What should my thought process on the flop be?

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HAND 1
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$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


BTN: $412 (103 bb)
BB: $80 (20 bb)
Hero (MP): $493.50 (123.4 bb)
CO: $894.60 (223.7 bb)
SB: $976.39 (244.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with A K
Hero raises to $12, CO folds, BTN calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30) 7 Q K (2 players)
Hero bets $16, BTN calls $16

Turn: ($62) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $40, Hero calls $40

River: ($142) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $80, Hero folds

Results (listed below in white, highlight to see): $142 pot ($2 rake)
Final Board: 7h Qc Kc 9h 7c
BTN mucked and won $140 ($72 net)

I agree with the flop bet.

There are a lot of draws that he calls with and I assume he has some sort of feel for how you play after 600 hands. So with position he might even be floating wider on the BTN.

I assume the plan is to fold to any raise we face here so I just looked at what hand combinations might float (on the flop only) that we can get value from against the combos that have us outright beat.

I gave him a little bit of a wider range for the button and also discounted combo's that were a little less likely but not impossible.

Hand combinations that have us beat:

7's - 3
Q7 - 9
K7 - 9
Q's or K's - I gave him only 1 combo since I thought he's usually 3 betting this)
KQ - 2 (same think, I thought he would 3 bet us a little more with this hand)

Hand combos that float that we can extract value from:

K10 - 12
KJ - 12
9's-J's - 9 (maybe too many still?)
J10 - 16
AJs - 1
QJ - 12
Q10 - 6

Going with this it looks something like 68:24, ahead/behind. I didn't include hands like A10 that might float us once and try to take it away on the turn or just straight out bluffs, because honestly...I'm not sure they make too much difference or if this player really does it often enough.

Anyway, I think we are ahead of enough hands that we can get value from that we shouldn't give him the chance to take a free card or allow him to bet out and take control of the hand. For me its a pretty clear b/f spot for the flop.

If you can't tell I just discovered combinatorics and started using pokerstove so I'm basically using every chance I get to become more familiar with the concepts. Please let me know if there are mistakes/disagreements.

Feels like a bit too wide a range for a weak tight player to have. I am thinking that you were probably correct to fold on river, but pot odds may have been in your favor to take a peak. Especially to build a better book on the guy. The $80 on the end might be worth hundreds over time.

gns2003 said:

Feels like a bit too wide a range for a weak tight player to have.

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Eh probably not his exact range, I might have missed a few flush draws and added a few hands that aren't realistic, but I still think this is b/f on the flop.

I prefer b/fing the turn to c/cing. As played I fold the river.

I realize his flop raise % is only 6%, but I still think he's bumping with KQ or 77 here, because no one expects you fold AK or AA, and the board is very drawy. On the turn nothing's really changed other than JT has gotten there so i bet to extract value from flush draws or KT KJ and fold if raised. If he just flats again Im still convinced Im ahead (super drawy board again) and will c/c a blank river

Zybomb said:

I prefer b/fing the turn to c/cing. As played I fold the river.

I realize his flop raise % is only 6%, but I still think he's bumping with KQ or 77 here, because no one expects you fold AK or AA, and the board is very drawy. On the turn nothing's really changed other than JT has gotten there so i bet to extract value from flush draws or KT KJ and fold if raised. If he just flats again Im still convinced Im ahead (super drawy board again) and will c/c a blank river

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I like this line a lot more than I like my own.

If we bet the turn (and not get raised), are you c/fing this river? I think I would.

F Paulsson said:

I like this line a lot more than I like my own.

If we bet the turn (and not get raised), are you c/fing this river? I think I would.

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When looking at the hand 1st glance I'm prolly bet/fold turn and c/f river. Most of the draws in his range got there on the turn/river and he possibly has sets, not likely though as he prolly gets aggro on flop/turn tbh. Possibly 2pr's in his range as well, but as with sets he prolly has to raise it up somewhere in this hand.

Any particular reason for only half potting the flop?

I really like zybombs suggested line here and that would probably be my default play in spots like these.
pot flop,b/f turn for half pot and c/c or c/f depending on river.

sindri_93 said:

Any particular reason for only half potting the flop?

I really like zybombs suggested line here and that would probably be my default play in spots like these.
pot flop,b/f turn for half pot and c/c or c/f depending on river.

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I halfpot the flop because I thought my equity versus his continuing range was less than 50% and because I didn't think his continuing range changes at all with a bigger bet, so I made it as small as I can get away with. In retrospect, I think I'm wrong about the equity though; even a squeaky tight player like this will take at least one off with a hand like QJs and KJs and has a fair number of draws that should peel in position. If I feel safe in folding to a raise on the flop (versus this player I probably do) then I could make my bet bigger.

F Paulsson said:

If we bet the turn (and not get raised), are you c/fing this river? I think I would.

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Yea a 7c river Im c/fing, unless I have some history with villain that would lead me to think he'd turn KJ/KT into a bluff, in which case it might be close. Standard though most villains play straight forward and check behind made hands and only bet 5 card hands or busted draws... since no draws busted a river bet from most villains means they have it

I like the 1/2 pot bet on the flop, it might induce a float so you might get a little more value out of a TT/JJ AJ type hand. I would prefer to b/f turn, and c/f river if the turn bet is called. This type of player probably isn't going to continue past the turn bet without a hand that beats TPTK.

The problem with the turn c/c is that from their perspective, he could think "Ok, the flop bet was a weakish continuation bet, and the check on the turn shows weakness again so I'll see if I can steal here". And now you don't have any idea of where you are, you haven't narrowed his range at all. If you are willing to call a $40 bet on the turn, then make that bet yourself instead.

Very bad, I thought we were trying to pot control and trap when checking the turn. Def. call the river

What's very bad? And what range do you suppose he has on the river that he now turns into a bluff (I don't think we beat anything but bluffs at this point).

Do we even want to cbet this flop in the first place? "charging draws" is not really that big of a deal when those draws have nearly as much equity in the pot as we do, and the range of made hands we beat that villain can have is super thin.

There is absolutely nothing you can beat here except a bluff and how often do you honestly expect him to bluff here?? 17/12/2.1 over 600 hands isn't the type that bluffs here in my experience.

clear fold imo.