$400 NL HE 6-max: AK oop vs. weak-tight
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF):
600 hand sample. He folds to c-bets 69% of the time. He 3-bets preflop 4.4% of the time, although 6% on the button. Sample not enough to converge, of course, but should give you an idea.
He raises flop 6%. Goes to showdown 20%. Weak-tight, is what I'm trying to say.
Preflop is standard, on the flop I could go either way. He's folding so much when I bet the flop that I'm not convinced it's the best play. No point in giving free cards to JTs and T9s and even 2-outers; may as well bet. I'll probably get called by QJ and KJs, but other than that it's a little hard to figure out hands that call that I beat. Let's not forget about flush draws, though.
On turn, my equity has plummeted. I don't think he has KK or QQ, but 77 is definitely in his range, as is KQ and JTs. I could maybe find an argument for check/folding here, but I don't like to check/fold on drawy boards, even versus nits. I think this is going to be a free-showdown play with AQ or KJ or a semibluff that won't follow up on the river often enough for me to take one more off.
On the river, I can't think of anything but a stone cold bluff that I beat and I don't think this player has it in him to float with air (or even AJ/AT) and then bet two barrels on a board like this.
What should my thought process on the flop be?
$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
by Stoxpoker (http://www.stoxpoker.com/) - Hand Details (http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/hand/60773/)
BTN: $412 (103 bb)
BB: $80 (20 bb)
Hero (MP): $493.50 (123.4 bb)
CO: $894.60 (223.7 bb)
SB: $976.39 (244.1 bb)
: Hero is MP with A
Hero raises to $12
, CO folds, BTN calls $12, 2 folds
: ($30) 7
K (2 players)
Hero bets $16
, BTN calls $16
: ($62) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $40
, Hero calls $40
: ($142) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $80
, Hero folds
Results (listed below in white, highlight to see): $142 pot ($2 rake)
Final Board: 7h Qc Kc 9h 7c
BTN mucked and won $140 ($72 net)